Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231422
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
922 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

WE HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS
FROM BARNES TO EDDY COUNTY...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING IN.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND IT
WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTH AND WARM IN THE SOUTH...SO WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE RAINFALL/AMOUNTS FROM MAINLY LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION WHICH WILL DETERMINE LOCATION OF AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE ABOVE PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MONTANA BORDER TODAY.
AS IT DOES E-W CONVERGENCE ZONE/BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
WITH MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS FEATURE ORIENTED ROUGHLY
ALONG I94/HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR. SOME SPOTTY SHRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. INITIALLY AIRMASS FAIRLY
DRY HOWEVER AS DAY GOES ON NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
DEEPER LAYERED RH. SOLAR WILL GOVERN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HOWEVER
WITH THICKEST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WARMEST COLUMN
OVER THE SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY SEE A SIZABLE THERMAL
GRADIENT FROM N-S.

SURFACE LOW DRIFTS INTO W SD TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT
SETTING UP NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION. BASED ON LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHRA WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO NW MN. LATER IN
THE NIGHT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIFT SO COULD SEE A BREAK
TOWARDS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH ENOUGH INSTABILITY SO IF ANYTHING
DOES DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY T POSSIBLE.

AS LOW BECOMES NEARLY STACKED ACROSS SD SUNDAY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. A BAND OF MORE STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
IN ZONE OF DEEPEST LAYER RH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS W-E BAND
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 2 SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS MODELS ADJUST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTING E AS LOW
REACHES S MN BY MORNING.

LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE SOME
WRAP AROUND PCPN DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW.

EXTENDED PERIOD STILL REVOLVES AROUND A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN RESTRICTED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF AND
GFS SEEM TO HAVE DIMINISHED DURING LAST 24 HRS...IF ANYTHING THE GFS
IS NOW A TAD WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. WHAT REMAINS
THE SAME IS THAT THE MORE ROBUST PATTERN OF PCPN WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...STILL DEPICTED IN THE BLENDED SOLN.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD TO THE RECENT TREND OF BELOW AVERAGE
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE BRIEF OVERNIGHT MIXED PCPN FOLLOWED BY RAIN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN CHALLENGE WAS WHERE TO
MENTION VCSH/SHRA DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FA SO LIMITED MENTION TO NORTHERN
SITES...TVF AND BJI MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS TOWARDS 06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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