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000
FXUS63 KFGF 060546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

VERY UNCLEAR HOW TO HANDLE THE SITUATION THIS EVENING. WIND DOWN
NOW AND PRECIP IS OUT OF THE AREA. NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NW FCST AREA 06Z-09Z THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. FEEL PREV
FCST HAD POPS TOO FAR SOUTH SO TRIMMED POPS AND WENT DRY VALLEY
CITY-FARGO AREA AND PERSONALLY DOUBT ANYTHING WILL FALL IN GRAND
FORKS EITHER LATE TONIGHT. PTYPE DOES INDICATE STRONG WARMING IN
THE 850 MB LAYER SO THAT MIXED PCPN PSBL LATE TONIGHT UP TO THE
INTL BORDER. PCPN AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND EXIT MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. STILL LOOKING AT 2 INCHES OR SO OF SNOW PEMBINA
EAST TO LAKE OF THE WOODS.

PROBLEM IS CURRENT ADV IS OUT TO ONLY 12Z. IF FREEZING PRECIP MAY
NEED TO EXPAND BEYOND THAT TIME IN NW MN. BUT DONT KNOW EXTENT OF
THAT YET. MAIN ISSUE IS ADV IS OUT DOWN TO MAYVILLE-COOPERSTOWN
WHERE NOTHING WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT. BUT ROADS ARE VERY ICY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW OVER THE ROADS THIS AFTN AND RE-FREEZING. MULTIPLE
ACCIDENTS EARLIER...AS ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD SHAPE DOESNT MAKE
SENSE TO DROP ADV IF ROADS ARE BAD. ON THE FLIP SIDE WE DONT HAVE
ADV WHERE ROADS ARE BAD TOO SOUTH OF THAT. WILL JUST LEAVE WELL
ENOUGH ALONE AS AM I 100 PCT CONFIDENT OF NO PRECIP COOOPERSTOWN-
MAYVILLE. NO IS THE ANSWER AND VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT SO ANY
SPRINKLES WILL FREEZE MAKING ICY ROADS WORST TOWARD DAWN. SO WILL
JUST LEAVE ADV ALONE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

VERY BUSY ACCESSING THE SITUATION AND WORKING WITH POWT TOOL FOR
PTYPE. 7 PM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING AFTER
PEAKING IN THE 5-6 PM TIME PERIOD. BAND OF SNOW ALSO EXITING THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. SO AFTER COOD WITH MEDA AND USING INFO FROM
SOCIAL MEDIA DROPPED BLIZZARD WARNING AT 715 PM BUT KEPT THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU 6 AM THURSDAY. SNOW AREA ROSEAU EAST NOT
PRODUCING MUCH ACCUM....DUSTINGS.... NEXT WAVE ON RADAR OVER SRN
SASK MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT NORTHERN TIER INTO MANITOBA AS
WELL. ISSUE WITH THIS WILL BE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND CHC
OF FREEZING PRECIP. HOW FAR SOUTH TOO WILL PRECIP BE. THINKING WE
ARE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PRECIP IN CURRENT GRIDDS BUT AFTER
COORD WITH BIS LEFT ALONE. BELIEVE ANY PRECIP HWY 2 SOUTH WILL BE
VERY LIGHT BUT WARM TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT ICE. 1-2 INCHES IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT. MANY MANY ACCIDENTS TONIGHT DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW OVER ROADS MELTING AND RE-FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PERIOD CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GROUND
BLIZZARD STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. STRONG WAA WITH 925MB WINDS AT 35 TO
40KTS WILL MIX EFFICIENTLY IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
NORTH. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE AN OPEN COUNTRY GROUND BLIZZARD THIS EVENING.

EARLY TONIGHT THE NEXT PUSH OF WAA REACHES THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WITH ABOVE FREEZING 850MB TEMPS REACHING THE HWY 2
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT PCPN TYPE MAY BE A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER JUST SNOW WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW FOR 2 TO 4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. DID ISSUED A WNTR WX ADVY THRU 12Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXED PTYPE AND SNOWFALL.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 30S. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA THE 00Z TO 06Z. MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION FRIDAY MORNING...WILL MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

FOR FRI THROUGH WED...TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A BIG WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL
AND COULD HIT 40 IN SOME AREAS WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW. SOME
COOLER TEMPS COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MVFR CIGS BREAKING UP AS DRIER 850 MB AIR MOVING EASTWARD THRU ERN
ND AND ENTERING THE RRV. AT THE SAME TIME A 45KT 925 MB SOUTHERLY
WIND TRANSPORING A STRATUS DECK QUICKLY NORTHWARD THRU ERN SD/WRN
MN. 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT...SO QUESTION OF THE TAF IS HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG WILL
THIS IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIG DECK WILL ARRIVE AND LINGER. WENT A
BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC. DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN AT ANY TAF SITE LATER
TONIGHT-THU MORNING DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINITY IN TIMING AND
TYPE...BUT DOES EXIST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW DVL-GFK-TVF AFTER 09Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST MID AFTN DVL AND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN GFK-TVF
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE