Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 051607
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1007 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

For this forecast update, the headlines have already been set, so
have no plans to change any of them at this point. Will go ahead
and bump up pcpn chances though, going more 100 percent chances in
areas that will see the steady snow. Otherwise, have some areas of
fog from Park Rapids MN to Devils Lake ND, with a few sites
reporting vsbys below a quarter mile. However, these seem to be
the exception, with other sites in the 2-5 mile range. Did
postpone the arrival of the snow more into the afternoon or early
evening time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

This morning... patchy fog in the Devils Lake Basin will diminish
with daybreak and with midlevel moisture filtering across eastern
North Dakota into the forenoon hours. Low clouds now slung across
the northern Red River Valley and northwest MN will edge slowly
eastward through the morning...but will be overtaken by the
approaching mid and upper level clouds... with chances for a faint
ray of sunshine limited to portions west central Minnesota during
the midmorning hours.

Through the day... diffuse low pressure which is currently digging
into the western Dakotas should coalesce into a strengthening low
pressure center in northeast SD by early afternoon... with light
snow overspreading central and eastern ND. Models are generally
consistent in placing the Low center near ABR around 21z... with
the GFS and NAM blend being the main components of the fcst
package. The NSSL WRF agrees quite well with the 00z GFS package
on overall placement of the main moisture axis into east central
ND and the central RRV from 21z into 00z... while the 06z HRRRx
brings a bit heavier QPF into southeast ND during that time. Have
kept a bit of mixed rain and snow into those far southern RRV
zones during his time... and expect that warmer temps there will
slow and sig snowfall accumulations til the late afternoon and
evening.

Have initiated Winter Weather headlines at 21z for northeast and
east central ND zone... and continued these into northwest MN
after 00z. Heavier accumulations are expected after sundown and
through the overnight hours tonight...with heaviest accumulations
expected across northeast ND and into far northwest MN. Blowing
snow could develop during the early morning period in eastern ND
as the low pressure center pivots into northwest MN... with
blowing snow continuing throughout the day on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Tuesday...The Low pressure center is expected to track across
northern MN through Tuesday forenoon and into northwest Ontario
during the afternoon. Winter weather headlines are continued over
the northern four-fifths of the along and north of the BAC-FAR-
DTL-BJI line until early evening. Expect considerable wind to
develop behind the storm system early on Tuesday and to
overspread the area during the day. Blowing and drifting snow are
possible in the headlined areas.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... Some residual light snow and brisk
northerly winds will persist behind the departing low pressure
system well into Wednesday. Much colder air filtering into the
area will push snow ratios above the 20 to 1 range during the
overnight...so some additional accumulations are possible...
though overall moisture amounts will be significantly reduced.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Cold air will be over the area
behind the exiting storm system Wed night into Thursday.
Wraparound clouds and flurries will persist. The 500 mb flow will
go more zonal but 500 mb heights more suppressed as cold air
lingers over the nrn tier of states. Shortwaves will move east
near this cold air boundary given chances for light snow, with the
next chance Saturday. Temperatures will run below normal for highs
Thursday to Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Trailing edge of cloud deck extended from Leeds ND to Wrightstown
MN. Clearing line was moving to the east around 16 knots in the
south but appears to be stationary in the north. Some mid and high
clouds were moving in from the west and were starting to reach Barnes
county and obscuring the lower cloud deck. IFR conditions were over
the far northwest and far northeast zones. MVFR conditions were
over the north half of the area, A clear sky was over the the
southern zones. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions over the north half of
the Red River Valley for tonight and Mon. IFR conditions may spread
a little farther south during the day on Mon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for NDZ038-039.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for MNZ002-003-006-009-016-017-022-023-027.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday
     for MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Gust/Riddle
AVIATION...Hoppes



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