Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070930
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The main challenges for the short term will be afternoon highs and
chances for some light snow east of the valley late tonight.

Surface winds will turn more westerly today...and become breezy
west of the valley...allowing surface temps to rebound back into
the upper 20s west of the valley despite increasing clouds. H850
temps should increase about 10 deg over eastern ND while
remaining significantly cooler over the far east...with surface
temps peaking in the mid to upper 20s around Devils Lake and
staying in the mid teens around Bemidji.

A northerly flow upper level pattern will bring a series of upper
waves across the region...with the first clipping Lake of the
Woods early this morning while a second...currently over srn
Nunavut...sinks into northern Minnesota during the overnight
period. Models indicating an area of H300-H500 Q-vector
convergence moving across eastern zones in the 06Z to 12Z
period...where we have been carrying low POPs. With the forcing
generally across the east, did remove POPs across eastern ND and
limit southeastern zones to flurries as there will not be a whole
lot of moisture with this wave...but temps should be cold enough
to see some light snow develop in the east. Less than an inch of
accumulation is expected. Overnight lows will range from around 10
in the far northeast (Baudette) to around 20 in the far
southwest (Lisbon).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Friday through Tuesday...North to northwesterly flow aloft is
expected to continue throughout the period with several fast moving
shortwaves moving through. Models are in decent agreement on one
significant shortwave moving through Friday with some decent precip
chances for the eastern CWA and winds picking up across the west.
Will continue to keep POPs mainly along and east of the Red River
with blowing snow in the west. Amounts still look to be one to two
inches in our northeastern counties. Some of the model soundings
have some drying aloft in the Red River Valley so will have to watch
for FZDZ, but it is on the far west edge of the precip band and
think chances are low enough not to include for the time being.

Saturday should be fairly quiet but another quick clipper starts to
move in Sunday night/Monday morning, Yet another weak jet max moves
through Monday night/Tuesday morning, with more light precip
possible Wednesday. With the northwest flow aloft and fast movement
of the systems, not expecting high QPF amounts at this point but
several rounds of a dusting to a few inches will be possible
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Expect to see west to northwest winds for the rest of the night
with just a FEW-SCT clouds. However, there are MVFR clouds moving
into western North Dakota. These are expected to move into the
KDVL area by around sunrise, then into the Red River Valley by mid
morning. These clouds may rise into the VFR range during the day,
but also may hold in the higher end of MVFR instead.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Godon



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