Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121857
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SASK TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES. NORTH WINDS WERE AROUND 10 MPH AND WIND CHILLS REMAIN FROM 25
TO 35 BELOW OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TWEAKED HIGH
TEMP UP A TAD FOR TODAY. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25
BELOW. WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING UNTIL NOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW EVENT SATURDAY
NIGHT SUNDAY. TYPICAL PCPN TOTAL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME
OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SNOW EVENT AND WILL
FOLLOW NATIONAL GUIDANCE.

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM N-S AS ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES IN. ALONG
WITH THE CLEARING COMES THE TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE NORTH HALF
BLO ZERO EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VALLEY. WINDS GENERALLY 5-10KTS
AND SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SUB -25 WIND CHILLS SO WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING. COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF LATER THIS MORNING
HOWEVER WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE
MODEST AT BEST. UNSURE IF CURRENT SNOW COVER OR LACK OF WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT. WITH WIND DIMINISHING TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING OFF WITH SUB 20 BELOW READINGS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY FROM THE VALLEY EAST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
REAL LIGHT WIND CHILLS DROP BACK DOWN SO ANOTHER HEADLINE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HANDLE THAT. EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WHERE RETURN FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION
AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL HELP WITH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ALL AREAS. EXPECTED BAND OF SNOW IN ENHANCED
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AIDED BY UPPER FORCING WILL REACH AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY BE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WHERE FAVORED FORCING WILL OCCUR THIS
PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAVORED AREA WOULD BE ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS.
WILL ALSO SEE 20 TO 25 KTS OF WIND WHICH WOULD FURTHER INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR VSBY ISSUES IN FALLING SNOW. WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE SEEING STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER MINIMUMS NOT NEARLY AS COLD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED TO START THE
PERIOD ON MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER NW FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM MON NIGHT INTO
TUES. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SLOWER AND BRINGING
THE SNOW BAND FARTHER EAST INTO E ND. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD
WITH COOLER TEMPS INTO MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT OUR AREA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER AIR MASS...AND WITH
AN EXPECTED RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

SKIES MAINLY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TNE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.  NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS DIMINISHING TO
5 KTS THIS EVENING AND HOLDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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