Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130903
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
403 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ONT/MAN BORDER WILL HAVE
VORTICITY LOBES ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. ONE LOBE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR TO
FOLLOW SUN NIGHT. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND WAS BUILDING AND SHIFTING EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST BY 84 HOURS. GFS, ECMWF AND NAM WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THE GFS SLOWER. WILL USE THE
GFS AND ECMWF.

CLOUDS OVER MAN WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS WILL GO
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

AREA RADARS SHOWING FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MAN. WILL ADD IN LOW
POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH
LITTLE CHANGE. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

QUIET MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WEDNESDAY SLOWLY
SLIDING EAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB TROUGH ENTERING THE
NRN ROCKIES.  TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER THAN
GFS/ECMWF WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THUS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
HOLD OFF TIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  GFS HAS REMAINED THE
STRONGEST WITH MOST PRECIP WITH WAVE VS A BIT WEAKER ECMWF.  TEMPS
TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT THAT IT WILL BE PRETTY
ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. STRATOCU FORMATION SHOULD BRING SOME CIGS OF AROUND
5000-8000 FT. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL MOVE DOWN WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PRETTY SCATTERED SO
WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOME OF THE GUIDENCE HAS
MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE SREF PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR NOW KEPT THINGS VFR BUT MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME LOWER CIGS IN AT
KBJI AND KTVF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR



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