Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 231300
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

INCREASED POPS FOR TIME THIS MORNING TO COVER MORE SOLID BAND OF
-RASN OVER SE ND INTO WESTERN MN. MESO SCALE MODELS CONSISTENT IN
WEAKENING BAND THROUGH THE MORNING SO CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND AFT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT AREA
IN ADVISORY SO DID NOT EXPAND HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...PCPN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS/PHASE AND ONGOING HEADLINES. MODELS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

STACKED LOW VCNTY IA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND FILL DURING THE
DAY. ALL AVAILABLE MESOSCALE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING
DIMINISHING QPF TREND...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAKES SENSE AS
290K SURFACE FROM GFS INDICATING LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BUT ALL AREAS IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. BASED ON
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL BACK OFF A BIT
ON POPS. AS FAR AS PHASE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE MOST PART SUPPORT
RA/SN FOR MEASURABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER DVL BASIN WHERE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING THIS AM IN THE -12 TO -18 LAYER WHICH WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF FZDZ. WITH TEMPERATURES BLO 32 AND CURRENTLY GETTING
-RA AND -SN FROM METARS WILL EXTEND WINTER WX ADVISORY TO 10AM
WHICH WILL COVER MORNING COMMUTE. WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY.

ANY RESIDUAL PCPN ENDS FROM W-E OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ANY POPS AFT
06Z. THERMAL ADVECTION RELATIVELY NEUTRAL SO TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD TRENDS. AT THIS POINT ANY DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN FA SO HAVE LOWER MINIMUMS THIS AREA.

NEXT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
CHRISTMAS EVE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH MAIN SUPPORT NORTH OF THE
BORDER KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE BORDER AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW BAND CHRISTMAS
DAY/NIGHT SO CONFINED POPS TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I94. MODEST COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES CHRISTMAS NIGHT HOWEVER MINIMUMS WILL STILL HOLD ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WI FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR OR INTO SE ND/WC MN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK YET. BEHIND THE SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW AVERAGE. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUT BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

A FEW SITES IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS HOWEVER CIGS MAINLY IFR/LIFR
AND HELD LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE PERIOD. VSBY MORE VARIABLE HOWEVER
AS PCPN SLOWLY DIMINISHES EXPECT VSBY AT LEAST TO RISE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





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