Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
614 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Issued at 614 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Surface trough of low pressure is making progress through the Red
River Valley currently. Visibilities are coming up and the low
clouds are clearing out as well. Will be watching areas east of
the trough to see if dense fog is an issue. Otherwise, forecast on


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

500 mb short wave and sfc low moving east thru east central
Saskatchewan. Cold front south of this system moving thru ern ND
at mid aftn and will move thru the RRV 23z-01z period and then
eastern fcst area toward 06z. Remaining pockets of dense fog nr a
Valley City-Grand Forks-Hallock area will clear out as front
nears. Rest of the area eastward has the low clouds but vsbys in
fog improved greatly during the late morning. Message this evening
is for fog to improve from the west with low clouds exiting most
areas. Some concern for the far eastern fcst to remain in low
clouds and may see some fog redevelopment as shown by conshort and
other short range models.

Cold advection will move in overnight with likely a large area of
stratocu. A few snow showers/flurries in NE ND and NW MN overnight
into Wednesday. Breezy wednesday with WNW winds 15-25 mph. Temps
not rising much from overnight lows. Peak cold advection 09z-15z

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Influence from the clipper moving into the Great Lakes region will
ease as upper level ridge moves eastward over the area juxtaposed
with a surface high wedges into the region from
Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This will help ease winds as a surface
ridging sliding across the region overnight however looks to lag
behind the bulk of the  colder, drier polar air mass leaving some
question in cloud cover. Still it looks reasonable for this set up
to allow for well below normal low temperatures to be realized
Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning.

As the surface high wedge scoots east, low level winds veer back to
the southeast ahead of a developing surface low moving out of
Montana eastward into the Northern Plains. This will tighten the
surface gradient between the eastern surface high and developing low
to the west increasing winds to the 20-30 mph out the south-
southeast across the region gusting into the mid to upper 30s mph.
Highest winds will be during the daytime hours of Thursday with a
chance of elevated winds into Thursday overnight. As the low moves
east, it`s cold front will also move east across the region around
early Friday. Strong warm air advection is expected ahead of the
front increasing the chance of light precipitation in the form of
fog and light rain overnight Thursday into Friday morning. The warm
air advection will also be responsible for a quick temperature swing
back towards normal, ie highs in the 30s. With the passage of the
cold front light snow chances increase for northern and northwestern
zones, especially deeper into the colder air and under a vorticity
maximum swinging through late Friday into early Saturday.

Saturday into early next week, the pattern shifts to more of a
northwest flow regime signaling cooler than normal temperatures with
perhaps some embedded progressive shortwaves bringing light
precipitation chances.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Poor flying conditions with LIFR, IFR conditions to continue in
vsby or cigs in the RRV and NW MN thru late aftn. This evening
will see a west wind shift and improvement in the cigs/vsbys from
west to east. However lower cigs likely to return in the cold
advection overnight with northwest winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Conditions may improve at terminals for a short while, but low
clouds are expected to return to the area later in the night. DVL
and GFK have gone VFR with FAR and TVF following suit in the next
couple of hours or so. But MVFR cigs will likely return to the
area...and possibly lower at TVF. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds
are expected as a surface trough and then cold front move through
the area.




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