Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

All the activity on radar has pretty much shifted out of the area
that picked up the 4 inches of snow earlier this morning. It is
now mainly along the highway 2 corridor, but it continues to
battle the dry northeast flow. Devils Lake has seen pretty steady
snow now, with web cams showing maybe an inch of accumulation in
grassy areas. Grand Forks has seen some light snow, but no
accumulation, and Bemidji web cams are showing some wet heavy
flakes coming down now too. Not seeing the good 850-700mb
frontogenesis anymore, but the high resolution models still want
to linger this light snow into the afternoon and evening as well,
slowly lifting it into northwest Minnesota. Models are probably
overdoing the pcpn and/or snow amounts during this time frame, as
the drier northeast flow seems to be limiting that. So overall,
only expecting a light accumulation through the afternoon as the
light snow slowly moves east-northeast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

This morning the frontal boundary has moved south into South
Dakota, but additional mid level forcing will continue development
of rain/snow banding through the mid section of the forecast area
near Highway 2 to Interstate 94 this morning. While this forcing
becomes more intense this morning in that mid section, low level
dry air moving in from the north will counteract this, keeping
light to moderate intensity with coverage as a main band with
some scattered around it. This will likely result in an additional
inch or two of snow, but impacts will depend on whether this is
locally accumulating or melting as it reaches the ground. As the
relatively warm layer aloft remains near to below freezing this
morning, precipitation type will continue to remain a rain/snow
mix, locally dependent on low level moisture and temperatures.
Around mid day, expect rain/snow to taper off for a few hours then
gradually transition to light rain for the afternoon.

As mid level forcing works northward from the mid section of the
forecast area tonight and temperatures drop to near to below
freezing again, rain/snow mix will develop in the evening in north
of Highway 2, gradually turning to snow overnight. In the southern
half of the forecast area, rain will develop as forcing and
moisture supply increase as a result of an approaching system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

On Monday, a surface low moves east from central South Dakota
toward central Minnesota, bringing in stronger moisture content
and better forcing. As warmer air moves north through the Red
River Valley Monday, most areas will see rain, and snow occuring in
most northern locations will transition to rain. Areas along and
south of Highway 2 will see mainly rain Monday with perhaps some
snow on the back side of the system late Monday night. Total
rainfall for those southern locations will be around a quarter of
an inch. The northward advance of warm air Monday will play a big
factor in terms of impacts for counties adjacent to the Canadian
border. If temperatures at these northernmost locations cannot
rise above freezing, moderate to heavy snow could be an issue as
liquid total amounts are expected to be one to three quarters of
an inch. At this point, this area will likely see an inch or two
of snow total from Sunday night to Monday night. However there is
potential for a narrow band of significantly heavier snow
especially near the Lake of the Woods area on Monday and Monday
night where temperatures will likely remain near or just below

Tuesday through Saturday night will be cooler than end of April
normals with minimal impactful weather occurring. 500mb flow across
the CONUS will keep the main storm track south of the northern
plains with broad scale trough slowly progressing across the middle
of the country. Evolution of the 500mb trough varies in model
guidance with timing and intensity differences on the track of the
SFC lows across the central plains into the Great Lakes. As a result
light precip is possible across the far eastern areas Wednesday and
Thursday if northern members of the guidance verify. Otherwise SFC
high pressure over Ontario will bring cool and dry northeasterly
winds across the area for much of the week. Highs will be in the 40s
gradually moderating into the low 50s by Friday and Saturday. Slight
chance for precipitation returns by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The steadiest snow at 18z is falling at KDVL and KBJI, with light
snow also falling at KGFK. KTVF may get some very light snow, but
it would be minimal. Ceilings have lowered in the snow band to
mainly MVFR, but in the heavier snow bands it has come down to IFR
too. By mid afternoon, this band should either be close or it will
be exiting KDVL and KBJI. Ceilings should stay a little better
down at KFAR and possibly KBJI overnight, while the next system
begins to approach ND by Monday morning. Any pcpn associated with
this system will mainly affect KDVL. However, lower ceilings look
to linger at KGFK and KTVF.




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