Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 132117
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
317 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Generally fair skies and light southerly winds are left after a
bitterly cold Arctic airmass has passed through the area.
Southerly winds and subtle boundary layer warming will continue
throughout the later afternoon and evening hours... as a warm
front edges into the area aloft. Expect clouds to increase from
the west through the late evening into the overnight hours.

On Sunday... expect southerly winds through the forenoon with
areas of light snow developing from late forenoon into the
afternoon. A cold front should sweep in from the north through the
early afternoon... bringing gusty northwest winds and steadily
cooling temperatures... and producing patchy blowing and drifting
snow across most of the area. New snowfall accumulation could
approach from 1-2 inches across portions of northwest through
northcentral MN... with trace snowfall amounts expected in
eastern ND.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

For Sunday night through Tuesday, frigid weather and dangerous wind
chills commence as an Arctic airmass moves from the Northwest
Territories to the Dakotas. This dry airmass yields potent surface
high pressure, near max values in the NAEFS and GEFS reanalysis
data. Despite sunshine on Monday, 850 mb temps in the mid -20s over
MN and breezy north winds at the surface will barely allow
temperatures to rise during the daytime hours. This combination of
factors will yield persistent wind chills in the 30s to 50s below
zero from early Monday through early Tuesday. Through this period, a
high amplitude ridge in the West will filter in drier air and thus
dry weather, but breezy conditions may result in occasional patchy
blowing snow, especially for the Red River valley where snow may not
yet be crusted.

Starting Tuesday, the recent roller coaster of temperatures begins
another ascent, as return flow develops and the previously mentioned
ridge aloft weakens and progresses into the Plains. By Wednesday,
daytime highs will reach the teens to 20s above zero, with
increasing warmth each day toward the end of the week. By Friday,
daytime highs will be hovering around the freezing mark, with the
next precipitation chances on the horizon heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Updated at 317 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Expect fair skies throughout the late afternoon and evening hours.
Light south winds will increase throughout the late evening...
along with scattered high clouds. Low level clouds will approach
eastern ND from the west late tonight... and overspread the FA
throughout the forenoon. Areas of light snow should overspread the
FA from late forenoon into the afternoon... with gusty northwest
winds and patchy blowing and drifting snow developing in the
afternoon, and following a cold frontal passage.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Gust



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