Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 112000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/RAIN SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AND PREFER THE ECMWF.

FOR TONIGHT...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL DEVELOP ON THE 290K SFC. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTH WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTH CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER TO THE NORTH AND
WARMER SOUTH...WITH A GOOD THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE
RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
LACK OF HIGH PRECIP RATES...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS SHOULD
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR. WE WON/T MENTION
ANY FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
CAN MOVE IN LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THEN SOME ICE IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH
AND AROUND 60 FAR SOUTH AND COULD COOL DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTH.

ON SAT NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z SUN.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND BRISK NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30 MPH...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...THE NW 500MB FLOW DOMINATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE BELOW NORMAL TEMP TREND TO CONTINUE.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU WED PM INTO EARLY THURS WITH A CHC FOR
SOME RAIN OR SNOW. IN ITS WAKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH 500MB RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US
ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE RED RIVER...AND ARE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE PERIOD.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT A MIX OF PCPN GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200/HIGHWAY
10 WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. OTHERWISE...TAF SITES
FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT ICING IN CLOUD ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL AT ALL TAF SITES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 09-10Z
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE FA THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER NORTH OF HALSTAD...ALONG WITH MINNESOTA AND
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES BELOW HALSTAD...CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO THE
SPRING SNOW MELT. MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS RAPIDLY
SHRINKING BUT SNOW CLOGGED DITCHES STILL NEED TO BE FLUSHED IN NW
MINNESOTA TODAY`S CONTINUED WARM WEATHER IS HELPING ERODE IT BUT A
WEEKEND COOL DOWN WILL SLOW THAT A BIT.

MINTO HAS CRESTED AND GRAFTON IS STILL RISING AND WILL FLUCTUATE
SLIGHTLY FROM ICE IN CHANNEL AND CREST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS EFFECT OVER THE WEEKEND FOR WALSH
COUNTY. COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND
TOWNSHIP ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. SOME TOWNS INCLUDED IN THE WARNING ARE GRAFTON... MINTO...PARK
RIVER... ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

A SNOW DRIFT IS DAMMING THE SNAKE RIVER UPSTREAM OF ALVARADO MN ON
COUNTY ROAD 66 AND HOLDING BACK WATER DESTINED FOR ALVARADO AND THUS
A WARNING FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR WHEN THE DAM BREAKS.

OTHERWISE...NEW FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR DRAYTON AND PEMBINA
ON THE MAINSTEM RED FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS
HYDROLOGY...LUKES






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