Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Bumped up winds a bit across the east, but no other changes for
this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Large scale flow has an H5 shortwave ridge sliding into the
western Great Lakes through the day, with an H5 trof digging into
the Pacific NW... strengthening surface low pressure over the
western Dakotas in the process. For the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota we can expect a deep southerly fetch of warmer
and more humid air to stream into the area at the surface and
aloft... with well couple blayer winds gusting into the 25 to 35
mph range over much of the area by mid afternoon. Surface dewpoint
temperatures should push into the lower 50s throughout the
area... which is fairly high for this time of year. As a result,
fair skies early in the day should give way to increasing clouds
in the later afternoon and widely scattered showers over portions
of western and central MN in the late evening... perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm over the central MN Lakes district. High
temperatures today should push well into the 70s across the
area... just a few degrees shy of record high temperatures for the
day. Tonights lows should settle into the 50s... which is also
quite mild for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The extended period will be noted by a change to more seasonable
temperatures and precipitation chances with the atmospheric pattern
becoming more progressive.

Starting Saturday morning, a swift moving cold front moves west to
east through the region reaching northwestern Minnesota by early
afternoon. Attached and ahead of the front, showers will build
through the afternoon becoming more numerous into the lakes country
of Minnesota. There is some chance of thunderstorms mixing in with
shower activity east of the US 59 corridor mid to late afternoon.
Thunderstorm chances will be dependent on cloud cover, rather the
lack thereof, to increase instability. Another area of rain is
expected to move into eastern North Dakota towards Saturday
afternoon as mid level moisture and elevated front lags behind the
surface cold front. Drier air underneath this moisture will limit
rainfall amounts to around a few tenths of an inch. Areas within
northeastern and west-central Minnesota are expected to see
generally around a quarter of an inch, although potential
thunderstorms would increase amounts. High temperatures Saturday
will be closer to, but still above, normal lingering in the lower

Rain chances diminish by Saturday evening although with dry
conditions expected through Sunday morning. An upper level short
wave is expected to quickly drop into the Northern Plains from the
Canadian Rockies. This will bring shower chances back into the
forecast late Sunday through Monday. The short wave digs deep into
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley keeping the area under breezy
north/northwest flow continuing the seasonable trend in temperatures
with Monday and Tuesday`s highs remaining in the 50s. An upper ridge
then quickly moves over the area Wednesday allowing lows to dip into
the mid to lower 30s, possibly upper 20s depending on surface wind
magnitude and orientation as well as cloud cover. These same factors
will influence Wednesday`s high temperatures as well with a forecast
of upper 50s to lower 60s provided, although higher temperatures may
be realized.

A cold air mass and deepening upper level low crashes into the area
Thursday morning with a stout cold front bringing some precipitation
chances near the front and developing surface low as well as gusty
northwesterly winds behind the front. Model guidances begins to
differ somewhat on how this low matures over the region, although
Thursday and Friday is expected to be raw for lack of a better term,
especially Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

All sites are VFR and will continue to be so through this
afternoon and tonight. Some MVFR ceilings will move into the KBJI
area late in the period. Breezy south winds with gusts above 20
kts will settle down just a bit tonight, and some LLWS is not out
of the question at some eastern sites. Winds will eventually shift
around to the southwest then west.




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