Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 100957
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The main forecast challenge will be the next shot of light snow
for later this afternoon into Sunday. As for current conditions,
there are patches of low clouds hanging up and down the Red River
Valley into the northwest quarter of Minnesota. These clouds have
kept temperatures from falling like they have over the Devils Lake
region down toward Valley City. For this reason, wind chill
readings have been warmer, so will cancel the wind chill advisory
for the Red River Valley. The next shot of light snow will begin
to arrive across the S and SW FA this afternoon and it continues
into tonight. Not expecting much for wind with this light snow
event, so blowing snow will not be an issue.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The light snow will continue on Sunday, slowly pushing into the
eastern FA through the day. For the entire event covering this
afternoon through Sunday, snow totals look to range from 1 to 4
inches. Another cold front will move through the area on Monday,
bringing some additional light snow and gusty northwest winds.
These gusty winds should drop off by Monday night. With the fresh
1 to 4 inches of snow from the prior event and the additional
light snow Monday, there should be some reductions to vsbys along
with at least drifting snow in open country. Will continue to
monitor these two events.

For Tuesday through Friday...Long wave trough over northern
Canada settles over Hudson Bay by the end of the period. Long wave
upper ridge remains over AK through the period.

Split flow starts this period with northern flow over southern
Canada/northern states and the southern flow over the
central/southern Plains. Pattern tempers as flat ridging occurs
over the Northern Plains by the end of the period.

An upper low pressure system over northern Canada will move into
Ontario by Wed. The GFS was a faster solution than the ECMWF. Another
upper low to move into southern Canada by Fri. Again the GFS is
faster than the ECMWF. Will prefer the slower ECMWF.

High temperatures were increased zero to three degrees for Tue and
increased one to five degrees for Thu. High temps were decreased a
degree or less for Wed and Fri from yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

MVFR cigs continue from northern valley into a good part of NW Mn.
Expect sct-bkn MVFR clouds to continue into morning. Low
confidence on CIGS later tomorrow with next system.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024-026-028-038-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hoppes
AVIATION...Voelker


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