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000
FXUS63 KFGF 140815
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PCPN/TEMPERATURES/WIND WITH SHARP CFP
TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES IN LATER PERIODS.
MODELS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN FA AROUND SUNRISE DROPPING
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
REAL CHALLENGE. NORTHERN FA WILL LIKELY SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THIS AM HOLDING STEADY AT BEST REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH
MAY SEE A BRIEF RECOVERY BEFORE LEVELING OFF. RECENT WARM WEATHER
HAS DIMINISHED SNOW COVER AND DARK SOILS/PARTIAL SOLAR MAY OFFSET
COLD ADVECTION SOME. WILL LIKELY BE TWEAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS INDICATING A SMATTERING OF
RETURNS SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS INDICATING BEST PCPN POTENTIAL IN THE COLD AIR SO WILL
STICK WITH -SN VS MIX. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING BRIEF PERIOD OF
30-35KTS THROUGH THE MIX LAYER WHEN STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION
PUSHES THROUGH. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
HOWEVER MODELS DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER
THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES.

TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. BY MORNING SW FA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHIELD. FARTHER NORTH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE FA DRY BUT WITH WELL BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD SATURDAY LIMITING
ANY NORTHWARD PUSH OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST FA ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. OTHERWISE WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OUR
COLDEST NIGHT IN A WHILE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BLO ZERO.

RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. LIFT WITH WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH FA IN
EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET MAXIMA SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND
OF PCPN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD INITIALLY SEE A MIX HOWEVER LOOKS TO MAINLY
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THIS
PERIOD STARTS WITH WAVE DEPARTING AS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT LIGHT QPF GRAZING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. BROAD BRUSH POPS SEEM BEST WITH
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW OR A MIX AT BEST.

WITH PACIFIC RIDGING KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEK
EXPECT GENERALLY BELOW MEDIAN TEMPERATURES. UNDER THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW LOW CONFIDENCE/LOW POPS FOR MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM...BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...EWENS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG