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000
FXUS63 KFGF 180445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK AS ANTICIPATED...THUS NO BIG
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP FOR LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE DROPPING
A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON
FRIDAY...AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL BE QUASI ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE
WITH A FEW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING ACROSS THE
US/CANADA REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE MODERATING TEMPS.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE AFTERNOON...925 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-35 KTS...ESPECIALLY VALLEY
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY TO AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A WHILE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DAYS FROM TODAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EDGE UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE GFS/NAM ALSO
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE ND/WC MN...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL OMEGA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY SLOW TO MOISTEN.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 0.70-0.80 INCHES OR ABOVE AIDED BY A LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 45-50 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP TO FORCE A BAND OF MAINLY
RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS POINT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE PRESENT TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP/ICE MAINLY OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/ROSEAU AREAS. RIGHT NOW DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THIS AREA THOUGH. AREAS OF ONE QUARTER TO
AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID ARE EXPECTED FROM NE ND INTO PARTS
OF NW MN...WITH LOWER TOTALS SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY END OVER NORTHWEST MN SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
WINDS AND GOOD MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RESPOND NICELY UP INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 5-10C RANGE...HELPING TO PROPEL DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NRN MN. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FAR NRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP TUE INTO
WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...THE SFC LOW EVOLVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS PER THE GFS
WHILE THE  ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A DOUBLE LOW SOLUTION WITH ONE OVER
THE PLAINS AND A MORE NORTHERN LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END
OF THE FCST PD. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP AS ALL LIQUID
THOUGH THERE MAY BE THE OCCURRENCE OF FROZEN PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE
FCST PD.

TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING
DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND BELOW NORMAL THU DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME WINDY ON FRIDAY. CIGS WILL ALSO
INCREASE...BUT REMAIN VFR. LOWER CIGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD)...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAIN LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE FORECAST POINT AT PEMBINA WAS STILL ON THE RISE. PEMBINA FORECAST
RAISED TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AS RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DRAYTON WAS NEARLY STEADY AND ALL
OTHER FORECAST POINTS {ALVARADO...OSLO...HALLOCK) IN FLOOD AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL. GRAND FORKS FELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAKE ESSENTIALLY LITTLE
DIFFERENCE TO RIVER POINTS IN FLOOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...FRAZIER/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...HOPPES