Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
352 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Main 500 mb short wave moving east into NW Ontario at 08z. Bow
ehco racing thru nrn MN toward DLH now but southwest edge is
hanging up a bit over wcntrl mn in warm advection zone. will watch
for pops in wcntrl mn thru 12z. but for right now thinking is dry
weather post 12z and into tonight as a more stable airmass builds
southward. the trough of low pressure and wind shift line at the
afc will be near the sd/nd/mn border region this aftn/eve but warm
air aloft and lack of upper level dyanmics is anticipated to
prevent tstm formation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

friday will be dry...then warm advection and instability returns
northward into wrn/cntrl dakotas fri aftn with storm development
anticipated in eastery wyoming or se montana and then activity
forming a MCS and tracking east through southern half of north
dakota and far northern south dakota. some disagreement with this
however as some models such as ecmwf has precip area more central
and nrn nd. anyhow upward trend in pops fri night into saturday.

Into the 500 mb upper ridge does eventually slide a bit west and
put us in a more northwest flow. But that still means additional
short waves about every 48 hours so expect more stormy/wet
conditions with temps near or maybe a tad below normal through
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms with areas of MVFR cigs
and vsbys will persist across east cnetral ND and much of
northwest MN through the midnight and overnight period. Storms
should exit eastern ND FAR-GFK-TVF areas by 08z...and push out the
DTL-FSE-BJI areas through 11z. Expect mainly VFR conds across
eastern ND and the Red River Valley corridor on Thursday. in
Northwest MN...expect areas of MVFR cigs to persist thru 15z...
with VFR conds after 15z.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Gust is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.