Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190301 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
901 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES AS GOOD MIXING LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
GOOD PRESSURE RISES IN BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT THESE TO DROP OFF SOME
BUT REMAIN BREEZY/WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA CAUSING
SOME BLOWING SNOW. INCREASED WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CAA
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND EAST IN THE CWA. ADDED
IN SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
OVERNIGHT LOWS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AS OF 20Z...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATION OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. EVEN
WITH LITTLE SNOWFALL...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXCEEDING 25
KNOTS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT COULD CAUSE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROMOTE
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. BLOWING SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PRAIRIE COTEAU DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER WITH AN OLDER SNOW PACK AND SEVERAL
DAYS OF GUSTY WINDS ALREADY...BLOWING SNOW APPEARS TO BE A NON-ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A MORE
ZONAL OR SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE
MODELS AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION SETS UP. THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE WRAP
AROUND TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS IT OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BEING THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SCHC/CHC POPS
THAT THE SUPERBLEND IS INDICATING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES BACK OVER THE REGION.

COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE 20S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS BEHIND IT. MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL ALSO MOVE OVER ALL TERMINALS AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DOWN TO
5 MILES AT TIMES. THE WINDS MAY DROP OFF SOME ON WEDNESDAY BUT
REMAIN BREEZY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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