Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 180926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE
WILL SEE SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OTHERWISE THIS WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MAINLY THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES
THOUGH THE DAY BUT MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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