Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261800 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Issued at 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1019 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Continue to watch area of rain moving across central SD. This
activity will continue pushing east-northeast through the day,
while trying to make it into the James Valley later this
afternoon. Current high temps appear OK and no changes anticipated
for the time being. Coolest temps expected across central SD where
clouds and rain will hang on into the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

The sfc high overhead early this morning will exit across southern
MN today, with a ridge lingering across west central MN and
northeastern SD. Southwesterly flow will remain at 500MB, ahead of the
main trough that will push into the western Dakotas late tonight,
and swing over the eastern Dakotas Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will again hover around 70 degrees, coolest over north
central SD where mid to upper 70s will be possible. While some
thunderstorms will be possible, do not expect any severe storms with
the best instability staying either well to our south or across
western SD.

Temperatures will return to near seasonal values Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms should linger across the eastern half of
the forecast area during the day.

Sunday will be marked by temperatures returning to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal, topping out in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Minimum RH
values could fall below 20 percent west river and especially
southwest of PIR. Southerly winds could become a concern during the
afternoon hours, but at this point the strongest winds should stay
over the James River Valley and east, with 20-25kt winds possibly
mixing down by 21Z.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Zonal flow aloft will give way to a building ridge on Monday. The
ridge will remain over the Plains through the week. At the sfc, weak
low pressure will persist through the extended. For the most part,
the region will remain dry. However, there are brief periods when
the low or llj ahead of the low will intensify and could generate
some showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low on the timing of
these precip bursts since the models are not in agreement. At this
time, Thursday night appears to be the best bet across the east for
seeing some precip.

Temperatures under the ridge will rise to above average with highs
in the 80s to lower 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

A couple upper level low pressure troughs will swing through the
area through the taf period bringing a couple periods of rain. The
first one was bringing a band of rain that was extending from Pierre
to Aberdeen early this afternoon. This will lift northeast and out
the area into the early evening. Pierre and Aberdeen will be
affected. The next stronger low pressure trough will be moving along
the South Dakota border bringing showers/possible thunder to mainly
MBG and ABR later tonight into Saturday morning. Conditions are
expected to be vfr through the entire period.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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