Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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476
FXUS63 KFGF 221738
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Isold strong storm over s central ND appears to be propagating E
but building southward into greater instability. Outside chance
this may graze the far SW corner of the fa so will keep low pops
later this afternoon. Farther north returns likely just accas and
weaken as they shift E so stayed dry. Other changes were to nudge
maximum temperatures up based on current reading. no other
changes.

UPDATE Issued at 938 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Pulled pops across the far south this morning as any elevated shra
will be to our west. Main challenge will be how much we warm up
and will be watching temperature trends at next update time.

UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

No changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Flattened upper level ridge was over the area with a short wave
moving across southern MAN. Upper ridge axis will move over the area
Fri night.

Precipitable water rises to an inch and a half to 2 inches over
south central and parts of southeast ND by this afternoon with
return flow. Thunderstorms were already developing south of BIS in
the return flow. Pocket of mid level instability was over south
central ND this morning and may clip the far southwest zones this
afternoon. Mid level instability may outrun the return low level
moisture. However will add some low pops over the south for today.

Upper level trough off the Pacific northwest coast will move across
southern MAN and the forecast area Sat night. Forecast area goes
into northwest flow aloft for Sun night. Precipitable water rises to
2 inches or better over the part of the area ahead of frontal
boundary on Sat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Monday will be dry however a zonal pattern sets up
by Monday night that will keep an active pattern with
scattered storms and showers throughout the work week.
Temperatures will have a cooling trend from the mid 80s
early to the mid 70s by the week`s end.  West coast ridging
will result in a NW flow pattern aloft on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Not a great deal of confidence on eastward extent of convection
into the forecast area tonight. Did mention VCTS in DVL this
evening otherwise too much uncertainty to mention in farther east
TAF sites. Otherwise VFR conditions expected.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Voelker



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