Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251626

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1126 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Enhanced CU developing in a narrow zone just west of Grand Forks.
A couple showers forming. HRRR does capture an area of showers
this aftn dropping southeast in an area that was our dry zone in
the RRV. So based on current sat/radar will add in a 20-30 pop
GFK/FAR today.

UPDATE Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

No changes to the fcst were made. Upper level system dropping SSE
toward Lake of the Woods and area radars shows some showers nearby
dropping into that area at 1430z. So pops in that area look good.
For the far southwest the main showers will miss our SW fcst area.
But am watching to see if any cu and -shra will form due to
daytime heating being that region is close to a southeast moving
vort max.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Northwest flow continues across the northern plains with showers
lingering in the east this morning as another wave of precip
advances to the SE from Saskatchewan. Skies have cleared out
between the two systems with low 40s and a couple sites in the
upper 30s this morning. Unfortunately the clear skies will allow
surface heating and cumulus will quickly develop in the cool
airmass today. Convective temps on model soundings are start in
the 50s and only rise to the low 60s by noon. HRRR guidance
suggests a bit of instability develops with some negative LIs in
the Lake of the Woods area and across SE ND ahead of the next wave.
Did add the mention of thunder possible with afternoon showers in
these locations. Otherwise a shower remains possible across the
entire FA today. Activity will quickly diminish this evening with
skies clearing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

After a cool start on Monday with lows in the 40s from ideal
radiative cooling environment with high pressure to the west and
clear skies, the full sun will allow temps to rise into the 70s
for most locations. Return flow begins with south winds as the SFC
high tracks to the east of the area Monday night. These south
winds will set the stage ahead of a broad area of developing low
pressure as heat and moisture return to the northern plains with
temps in the 80s and dew points in the 60s. By Tuesday afternoon
an axis of 2000 to 3000J/kg of most unstable CAPE will develop
across the central Dakotas with higher bulk shear values across
SD, 40 to 50kts, than the 20 to 30kts expected across ND. SPC did
issue a slight risk to the south of the area and marginal over the
FA for day 3 convective outlook based on this set up. Main
concern will be a convective complex moving into the area with
winds and hail the primary threats in the nighttime hours.

Wednesday to Saturday...The extended period begins with surface
low pressure pushing across the area. The greatest instability
attm will be in Minnesota ahead of the main area of low pressure,
as it is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Red River to start
the period. As the system passes, expect some slight cooling and
breezy conditions, with scattered showers and some thunder
possible. Otherwise, looking for more zonal flow aloft along the
Canadian border in the wake of the system. Impulses traversing the
flow will help increase the chances for showers and storms
through the end of the period. Temperatures behind the system for
the most part will be slightly cooler, then rebounding at the end
of the period as cool high pressure departs.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR this morning at all TAF sites except BJI where 1200ft stratus
deck is lingering. Expecting afternoon cumulus to form around
4000ft and become broken across the area with a few showers in the
mid to late afternoon. No confidence on placement and will leave
VCSH out of forecast for now. NW winds will be less than previous
days with 10 to 15kt and minimal gustiness. SKC overnight.




LONG TERM...Hopkins/JK
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.