Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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627
FXUS63 KFGF 290448
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

forecast in good shape. High level cloud cover is over most
areas, though thinnest in northern MN where temps have dropped to
near 32F in a few areas. In this area as well dew pt temps today
were lower. Temps in the mid 30s as well in NE ND with 40s in the
WC MN. Overall trend of the fcst is good with any threat for
showers holding off in the far NW fcst area til past 12z as the
upper flow is southwest to northeast and short wave not moving
fast eastward. Still no fog of any degree is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Clouds and any fog reforming will be the main issue for the period.

Water vapor loop continues to show split flow aloft with the main
upper low well to our south. A northern branch shortwave coming
into the Dakotas overnight will bring some increasing mid and high
level clouds. Surface high pressure will dig down over the Great
Lakes with troughing to our west, so winds will shift slowly around
from the northeast to the southeast by tomorrow morning. Some drier
air will move in from the northeast this evening, and think there
will be enough gradient to keep us more mixed than we have been the
last few nights. In addition, the mid and high clouds should keep
us from totally radiating out. Will keep a close eye on things
especially with recent snowmelt over the northwestern counties
where some lingers, but for now think that the best shot of fog
will be to the west of the CWA. With high clouds and a bit of
mixing we should stay mostly in the 30s overnight.

Tomorrow, the northern branch shortwave trough will be moving into
the northern Red River Valley, with a surface trough developing to
our west. Southerly winds will pick up ahead of the trough, and
with warm air advection highs should get into the upper 40s and 50s
again. The surface trough will be approaching the northwestern CWA
by tomorrow afternoon, although a few of the models dry up any
precip along it except further north in Canada. Current forecast
has 20-40 POPs in the northwest beginning Wednesday afternoon, and
think this seems reasonable for the possibility of light rain
showers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The challenge for this time period will be forecasting for
precipitation and the location of a cold front late week. On
Thursday, the surface trough will deepen to the west and southerly
winds will bring another mild day with temperatures in the 50s. By
Friday, cold front moves from the north bringing lower
temperatures with it. With this cold front, precipitation and
clouds are possible late in the week. The difficulty with the cold
front is that models are not agreeing in regards to the location.
The global models disagree with some trending more northward while
others hitting the region. High temperatures will be earlier in the
day in the fifties depending on the movement of the front, or could
stay similar to Thursday. Precip chances look fairly high as models
set up a frontogenesis band in the north near the front. GFS
brings that front south on Saturday which would spread precip
further into the CWA, while the ECMWF has a fairly weak trough axis
moving through. Even with a possible cold front, the weekend will
continue to bring temperatures above average in the fifties with
low temperatures in the mid to high thirties.

Model consensus is even less great early next week another split
trough moves into the Plains. Some deterministic models take the
upper low on a further northward track that could bring us some
significant precipitation, others go further south. Will continue
to keep the blend of POPs going with all the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR thru the pd. Could be spotty light fog overnight/Wednesday
dawn. Winds turning south-southeast and increasing a bit Wed
midday-aftn. Bit more wind speed that the past few days, in the
10-20 kt range in E ND and RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Anderson
AVIATION...Riddle



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