Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALL GOING AS SCHEDULED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN ERN ND/RRV. CLEAR SKY. DID GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TRW- IN
THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL PROB HAVE TO ADD THEM TO WED AM
12Z-18Z PERIOD AS WELL TO PARTS OF THE RRV/NW MN AS NEGATIVE
SHOWWALTERS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES 500 OR A BIT
HIGHER MOVE THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG SE WINDS 18 TO 25KTS GUSTING HIGHER IN THE VALLEY AROUND
35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT GFK AND FAR. BKN MID TO HIGH CIGS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK






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