Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Only area that remains clear is along the Canadian border, but
clouds continue to approach that area from the north and south.
Therefore in the next few hours, expect this clear area to fill in
with clouds. The return of clouds should hamper fog to some
degree, but there is a lot of uncertainty. Some stations in our
Minnesota FA have been flirting with fog, but it has not expanded
too much. Still think with the clouds overhead, it will stay
patchy, but will have to monitor the fog overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

With a split flow pattern over western North America and fairly
flat H5 flow across the northern plains, we can expect our
seasonably mild and dry a conditions to persist through the short
term and beyond.

A winter storm system is just beginning to break out of the
central Rockies of eastern Colorado... on its expected trek
through the Central Plains states. Short range model guidance is
consistent in pulling northern portions of that storm across
southeast SD and southern MN, with precipitation bands staying
well south of our forecast area.

For our area... fair skies overnight should give way to
increasing clouds on Sunday, with thickening lower to middle
level clouds across far southeast ND and west central MN during
the day. light west winds overnight will turn from the northwest
during Sunday forenoon and early afternoon periods as the Central
Plains storm system deepens into the KS/NE borderlands.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to converge on
the solution of having the northern edge of the snow to our
southeast. The newer 12Z NAM run is farther south more like other
models unlike the 06Z NAM which has more snow to the north.
Currently only very light snow possible with the best chances in
Grant County and southeast Ottertail County. With multiple runs
keeping the snow to our southeast and outlier also moving southeast
confidence is high in little or no snow. Some higher winds,
especially in the southern Red River Valley, are still a concern.
With the recent warmer temperatures there is a crust on the snowpack
so falling snow would be needed for blowing snow. With little or no
snow expected, little or no blowing snow is expected.

A weak clipper is still expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. This
clipper could bring a short period of snow as it passes.

The next chance for snow comes late next week as a low develops off
of the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and moves into the Upper
Midwest. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all have the low developing and moving
across the Upper Midwest but disagree on impacts. Ensemble solutions
like the GEFS have a  range of solutions but the mean is in line
with the operational GFS. So while there is a fair amount of
confidence in the occurrence of this storm there is little
confidence in the impacts at this time.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through next week.
Highs are generally in the 20s with some warmer air near the end of
the week leading temperatures into the 30s as a upper ridge moves
in. Overnight lows in the upper single digits to teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Most model guidance continues to hit fog and low clouds late
tonight into Sunday. Confidence remains low in the fog, but a
little more confident in at least the trend toward MVFR
conditions. Will trend all TAFs into the MVFR range toward
morning, but will just have to continue to monitor trends through
the night and adjust as needed.




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