Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
644 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Issued at 642 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

No forecast changes but will be monitoring for fzdz this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Chances for very light freezing drizzle/flurries or fog will be
the main challenge for the short term.

Obs reports of flurries or freezing drizzle have become more
sparse in the last few hours. However, cyclonic flow aloft
continues and looking on satellite upstream still shows plenty of
cloud cover. Model soundings continue to show the classic pattern
for freezing drizzle, and the 900mb level has plenty of RH and
periods of rising omega in the layer overnight. Given that snow
grains or flurries continue to be reported upstream even with the
dry layer aloft. Will continue to keep patchy freezing drizzle and
isolated flurries going overnight. SREF probabilities have some
lowered visibilities over the Devils Lake Basin, with some light
winds and recent snowfall. Included a patchy fog mention tonight
across our far west. Temps will not drop too much thanks to cloud
cover, staying in the 20s.

The patchy freezing drizzle/flurries may continue into the early
part of the day, but cyclonic flow decreases and flow aloft
becomes more westerly, so think that the threat for nuisance
wintery precip will be decreased. Cold air advection will be
continuing tonight and tomorrow, so the trend of a few degrees
colder for tomorrow will continue with highs in the 20s to near
30 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Looking at the 500mb height pattern, a shortwave kicks out into the
central Dakotas by 06Z Sunday. This will bring the first chance of
snow for the extended period. Amounts will be light, most places
will only receive a dusting of snow. Beyond this, the models begin
to show bigger differences in the placement of the next system. The
GFS has the low pressure center over north central North Dakota,
while the European and Canadian have the low further to the south
and west over the South Dakota-Wyoming border. The GFS is quicker
than the European pulling the precipitation out of the region. With
this, the GFS also brings in the cold air sooner. Expect high
temperatures on Monday to be in the mid 30s, then dropping to the
mid teens on Wednesday. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the
combination of these colder temperatures and wind speeds from 10-
20mph out of the northwest will bring us our first below 0 wind
chills for the season.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Cigs likely to hold steady in low MVFR range through the forecast
period. Low confidence on lower vsby in Fog/fzdz and will monitor
but leave out of TAFS.




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