Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161557

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
957 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Issued at 957 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Fog over the western counties has shown some 1/4 mile or dense
reports at times, but web cams are pretty good, so the lowest
visibilities seem to be very patchy. Will include some patchy fog
mention for the rest of the morning, but do not think fog is
widespread enough for headlines at this point. With the low clouds
for much of the day, lowered highs a couple of degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Fog loop indicates clouds were moving south over the area.
Precipitable water rises today and peaks Thu night then
decreases from the northwest on Fri.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over WA/OR.
Water vapor loop also indicated an upper trough over
western ALTA. The upper level troughs will move into
southern MAN by 06Z Fri with an upper jet on the southern
periphery. Precipitation is expected to develop over the
northern zones Thu night.

Main upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will hang back
and move out into the Northern Plains Fri night. This system
may produce snow over the southern Red River Valley Fri
night. The southern Red River Valley will be in the right
entrance region of the upper level jet.

Winds will switch and come out of the southeast for today. Windy
conditions are expected again today. Winds may be near wind
advisory conditions. Another cold front will move out of Canada
Thu night and take most of Fri to move through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

The upper air pattern will remain progressive next week with low
pressure systems moving east across Canada. The 00Z ECMWF/GFS is
consistent thru Tuesday.  Milder air (relative to normal) will move
into the area Sunday and Monday as an upper ridge moves in behind
departing 500 mb trough. Next low to move through Manitoba Monday
night followed by colder air Tuesday.

On Wednesday the 00z GFS does have a southeast moving short
wave/clipper type low moving thru E ND/MN and some light snow
chances.  00z ECMWF/GEM is dry.  Milder air to return Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

IFR conditions were generally over the western zones or roughly
west of a line from near Langdon, ND to west of FAR to near
Wheaton MN. The rest of the area had MVFR cigs. Expect the IFR
area to slowly drift north today. Then expect the IFR area to sink
back south tonight and Fri as colder air moves into the area.




LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.