Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PASSING BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
WITH NIGHTFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTH AND
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL TRANSIT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH 09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...GUST






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