Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN IN THE FAR WEST TOMORROW
MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER SW MANITOBA WILL SLIDE INTO CENTRAL
ND...WITH SOME MUCH COOLER H500 TEMPS ALOFT. CURRENTLY RADAR IS
PICKING UP ON SOME ACTIVITY NORTH OF ESTEVAN. HAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE AREA AND ONLY CHANGES WILL BE IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TO PUSH BACK
END FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPS ON TRACK. WILL CHECK SKY PRIOR TO
PUBLISHING GRIDS...BUT SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES OTHER THAN ALONG THE INTL
BORDER...WHERE SOME MID CLOUDS ARE JUST ENTERING NORTHERN VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHRA ACROSS CNTRL
DAKOTAS AS COLD POCKET ALOFT DROPS THROUGH NORTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA...RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IS NOW ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA BORDER NORTHWEST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES REGION. QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AS WELL AS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TOO. REPORTING STATIONS ARE PRETTY FAR
APART UP THERE...BUT ONE IS REPORTING SOME VIRGA NEARBY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF NAILED THIS BEFORE THE OTHER MODELS AND
BASICALLY BRUSHES AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW PCPN
CHANCES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANY PCPN WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
HOWEVER...IF IT ENDS UP BEING SLOWER IT MAY STILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST FA DURING PEAK HEATING. AS IT STANDS NOW ANY INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS WEST OR SOUTH OF THE FA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. THE
NORTH SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RIDGING TRIES TO PUSH EAST ON TUE BUT EFFECTIVELY JUST TIGHTENS
THE THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SW. FAIRLY GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. SAME STORY GOES FOR WED WITH
THE THERMAL GRADIENT MORE EAST TO WEST...WITH LOWER WINDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMER STILL AND THEN
STORMS? MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN MOVING A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK
STYLE RIDGE A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SQUARELY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP UP WELL
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ...AND MAYBE TEASE SOUTHEAST
ND WITH THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY... UNDER A STEADILY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROF THOUGH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET... FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ADDED TO THAT OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND A SOMEWHAT COOLER...
POSTFRONTAL... NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW. WITH A TURN BACK TO SOUTH
WINDS AND SLIGHT WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDS WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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