Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211758
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1158 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Increased the cloud cover to the west of Devils Lake where there
is currently a deck of lower clouds. Winds should slowly diminish
through the afternoon, but it will still be a chilly day, with
highs in the upper teens to mid twenties. A few flurries will
still be possible with the clouds over northwestern Minnesota,
with no accumulation expected, with the flurry chances diminishing
as the clouds move slowly out later in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

09z sfc map shows low pressure east of Dryden Ontario. The main
pressure rise was into NE ND/NW MN earlier this evening...and
dropping south/east and over the southern RRV/WC MN currently.
Feel like the wind adv issued for SE ND and WC MN can be expired
at 12z. It will be breezy/windy today, esp this AM all areas..and
turning colder as temps in the single digits and teens moving in.
Skies clearing as well though with very cold 500 mb temps (-31C)
there are some convective cloud streaks/bands showing up behind
the main cloud area. Thus idea of partly cloudy for the balance of
the day RRV and E ND seems reasonable. East of the RRV will see
clouds hang on a bit later. Snow showers will continue east of the
RRV thru mid morning so did add/extend pop for -shsn til 15z or
so.

Mainly clear sky this evening with diminishing winds. Mid/High
clouds ahd of next system moving into DVL basin overnight. Kept
any pops for weather out of the DVL basin thru 11z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

It seems as if models still having a bit of difficulty with
track of 500 mb wave and placement of light precipitation with it.
Consensus from Monday AM was main risk of precip more so central
ND but now model consensus is more NE ND/NW MN. The good news with
this is that more of the precipitation will fall in the colder air
and less risk of freezing rain/sleet. Still looks light with fcst
giving up to 1 inch of snow NE ND/NW MN. Western edge of precip
still may mix with freezing rain before ending.

The forecast is quiet for Thanksgiving day with temperatures near
normal values. For post-holiday travel, the main concern is strong
winds and precipitation chances Thursday night through Friday night.
As a clipper system passes through the Canadian prairie, confidence
is high that strong pressure gradient winds and low level jet to
yield a breezy day Friday for the Dakotas. Depending on how deep
mixing occurs Friday, there is a chance for gusts near wind advisory
criteria in central and eastern ND. With a warm nose aloft over the
valley Friday, expect daytime high temperatures in the 40s for most
locations. Thus, any light precipitation looks to fall as mainly as
rain during daylight hours. With cooler air encroaching along the
Canadian border late Thursday night and post-frontal colder air
moving in Friday night, there are chances for a light wintry mix,
mainly north of Highway 2. Winds will slowly dissipate Saturday as
high pressure begins to build in from Manitoba.

Expect notably colder weather Saturday and Sunday, behind Friday
night`s cold front. With radiational cooling under high pressure
Saturday night, temperatures will bottom out Saturday night with
lows ranging from the single digits to teens. Early next week,
precipitation chances return as upper level ridging breaks down in
the West and the general weather pattern becomes more active
again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Potentially a few lower ceilings and possible MVFR conditions for
the next few hours at Thief River Falls and Bemidji. A few
flurries are possible with these clouds. Conditions should slowly clear
over northwestern Minnesota later in the afternoon. A few clouds
may move into Devils Lake in the next couple of hours, although
the guidance suggests that they will dissipate before reaching the
area. VFR conditions should prevail over Fargo and Grand Forks.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/Wilson
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Riddle/BP
AVIATION...Godon/Wilson



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