Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE N RRV EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...FOG
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS C ND. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK OVER E ND...SO ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PUSH INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCTD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...WHICH AGREES WITH
CURRENT POPS. SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CLOUDS AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TEMP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
TODAY IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH BY EACH AS IT WAS JUST SMOKE
YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AND SMOKE ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE SMOKE/HAZE/FOG AFFECTING THE VSBY AT
SOME SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE PAST TWO DAYS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF IT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IT CAN BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING SE.
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT IN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WED LIKELY REMAIN
A LITTLE LOWER THAN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AROUND THU INTO FRI
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND BRING MINIMAL PCPN
AMOUNTS. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL.

FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/N CENTRAL US OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS QUITE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UNTIL FROPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



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