Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
944 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Issued at 944 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Fairly light winds across the area this morning, and not expecting
them to increase all that much more today. Looking like the day
hours will be pcpn free, but a weak boundary will push down into a
Lake of the Woods to Jamestown line this evening. A weak low level
jet impinges on this area too, bringing a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Some of the
new 12z model guidance is showing slightly better chances around
the Lake of the Woods, as compared to the Jamestown portion of the
line. However, will see what other model guidance shows as it
comes in this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Upper level trough was over the western Great Lakes. Low amplitude
northwest flow aloft will be over the area with short waves moving
through the flow. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over
northern ALTA/SASK with an east-west jet streak on the south side of
upper low. Trough will move across northern MAN this afternoon.
Upper trough will send a cold front into the northern REd River
Valley by Tue afternoon.

Low level moisture to increase this afternoon. Mucapes around
2000j/kg over the southwest zones this afternoon. Prefrontal surface
trough moves through the area Mon night. Low level convergence field
sets up over the southern Red River Valley for Tue/Tue night.
Higher low level moisture to move into the southern zones Tue.

Low level ridging moves out of SASK and into the area Tue night and
should push precip south and east of the area for Wed. However a
weak low pressure system will move across SD Wed and may produce
rain in the far southern Valley Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thursday-Sunday...Weak zonal to northwest flow aloft through the
period. Models do not offer any strong signals for precipitation...
thus only 20%-30% PoPs for mainly the afternoon periods. Severe
potential appear limited given weaker deep layer shear and marginal
instability...although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will be near normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The fog loop and surface obs indicated a clear sky was across the
area. However some patchy fog was over far northern MN with 3 to 6
mile visibility. Couple sites reporting cigs around 95 hundred ft
over central ND. Expect VFR conditions for today and tonight. expect
cigs around 10 to 12 thousand ft to move across the area later this
afternoon and tonight. Cold front will move into the northern Red
River Valley tonight and bring in cigs around 4 to 5 thousand ft.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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