Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 301612
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE RATHER
TENTATIVE IN GENERATING MUCH QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO
STILL BE SOUTH OF US WITH THE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING HELD
SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE. FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IS WEAK
AND NORTHWESTERLY...REMAINING DRIER AND MORE STABLE. SINCE SOME OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO...WILL HOLD ON TO
THE LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PARK COUNTY AND THE
PALMER DIVIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
STATES...WITH SOME BUILDING OF THE HIGH FURTHER WEST AND NORTH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP SOME DRIER...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...WHILE SOUTHERN COLORADO REMAINS UNDER A
WETTER...SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER POPS TODAY AGAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER PARK COUNTY AND
EXTENDING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SURFACE TROF OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH
RESULTS IN SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
STRETCHES THROUGH FAR NE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...JET STREAK ACROSS
THE MIDWEST MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL.
INDEED...THE RAP DOES SOME HAVE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE 700MB QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELD.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON THE FAR PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPING OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND WILL TO TO GRIDS TO COVER
THIS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT AS THEY CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE
UPPER RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN PLACING
NERN COLORADO UNDER A SOMEWHAT DRIER NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO/NERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO SRN
COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY AND UP ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED T-STORMS
OVER THE FRONT RANGE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE MORNING OVER THE MOSQUITO RANGE AND SOUTH PARK IN
PARK COUNTY. NWLY TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD THEN MOVE THESE STORMS
OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON
HRS WHERE THEY SHOULD LINGER THRU MID-EVENING PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PCT RANGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND 10-20 PCT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP SHOULD HINDER
THE FORMATION OF DEEP UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE STORMS SHOULD STAY
WELL BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY STILL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
WHICH PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE LESS
STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHT W-NWLY FLOW MOVING OVER THE FCST AREA.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE REVERSES ITS COURSE
AND BEGINS FLOWING NORTHWARD ACRS COLORADO. SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE T-
STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE NEARBY
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY CREEP UP TO NEAR ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO
REMAIN OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
ROTATING ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS IS NEW IN THE MODEL. SO
WILL NOT BASE TOO MUCH OF THE FCST ON THIS FEATURE AT THE PRESENT
TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-
STORMS MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE MTNS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE DENVER
AREA...POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
HAVE RELAXED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...LEADING TO LESS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER AIRPORTS ARE SO LOW THAT THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS



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