Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260420
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
920 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

No changes to the forecast at this time. Through the next 24
hours, high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep dry and
warm weather in place. Moisture is expected to rapidly increase
over the mountains later tomorrow night, with snow developing in
the mountains Sunday morning. Evening model runs continue showing
a potent system heading for the state for the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

Upper level ridge was over Wyoming and northern Colorado while a
weak upper level trough was over southern Colorado and New Mexico.
Both ridge and trough will shift east of Colorado on Saturday
allowing a somewhat stronger high pressure ridge to build in from
Utah. This will continue the dry and unseasonably warm conditions
observed today, although there will be a gradual increase in high
clouds through the day. Temperatures will remain above average
and winds should remain generally light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

Incoming lead system along with strong 150kt jet will nose into
Southern Colorado Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snow will
gradually spread over Northern mountains late Saturday night and
becoming more widespread Sun morning. There is strong QG forcing
over western and NW Colorado into Sunday morning...strongest west
of our CWA. Still plenty of moisture and good lapse rates but
orographic flow only marginal initially for our area with
Southwest mountain flow. As the lead wave passes by...orographic
forcing will improve as mountain top flow shifts more west to
northwest and some cold advection behind the trof. Model and snow
model output indicated general 3-6 inch snowfall for our
mountains during the day on Sunday. Certainly may need an
advisory, especially for zone 31 but too early for hoisting today.
As for lower elevations on Sunday, NAM tries to sneak out a band
of precip on the plains, just North of the developing surface low.
Given some light forcing have bumped up pops just a bit for the
sun morning hours and also expect some slightly cooler
temperatures.

The lead wave of energy will intensify into a closed low up over
the Dakotas on Monday which will result in colder and windy
conditions on the plains for both Monday and Tuesday. The
mountains will see continued snow showers given continued moderate
Northwest orographic flow and ample moisture. The plains will be
mainly downslope but coudn`t rule out some isolated showers
especially over far northeast Colorado.

A midweek break of wind and snow in the mountains on Wednesday
before the next system drops into the Great Basin on Thursday and
Friday. There will be an associated cold front over lower
elevations but given the path of storm into the desert Southwest
the eastern extent of precip may be the mountains. Certainly a
colder week ahead with high temperatures becoming below normal for
much of this upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 920 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016

No aviation impacts through the next 24 hours as skies remain
mostly clear and winds continue out of the south and southwest.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Dankers



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