Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 142123
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
323 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

WEATHER IS BEHAVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HEAVY
RAINERS HAVE DUMPED AROUND AN INCH IN SPOTS BUT NO MAJOR ISSUES
AS OF YET. THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY IS JUST COMING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS AT 2030Z AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HRRR HAS ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS RIGHT NOW WITH QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT HELPING THINGS OUT AHEAD OF IT AND TENDING TO SQUASH MOST
BUT NOT ALL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT /PER CIRA SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY/ AND WILL COUPLE WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LESSEN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM/CLOUDS
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER TONIGHT WITH MAXIMA TOMORROW
A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO AND THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL BE AVAILABLE TO FUEL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTVITIY EACH DAY...BUT RISING HEIGHTS MAY ALSO PRODUCE MID-LEVEL
INVERSIONS THAT CAP OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME BEING
WILL STICK WITH POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...PRIMARILY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL LEAVE COLORADO UNDER A WEAK
AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GENERAL PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL BE LOW AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS AND PRECLUDE THE
ACCUMULATION OF EXCESSIVE MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK MAY BE ENTIRELY DRY...BUT THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
RIDGING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ME FROM PULLING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HILLS WILL BRING ISSUES TO ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 00Z OR SO WITH ACTIVITY EAST OF THE METRO AREA BY
THEN. WINDS WILL BE MESSY AS IT PASSES BUT WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
GET A MORE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE
LINE PASSES. THIS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING. SOME HINT OF NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND TODAY/S SYSTEM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...ET


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