Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220314
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
814 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTH. OVERALL...SNOW HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASING TREND
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. PROFILERS STILL SHOWING MODEST UPSLOPE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND UP TO MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. THE UPSLOPE FLOW
COUPLED WITH WEAK QG ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ALLOWED THE
SNOW TO REMAIN OVER THE FRONT RANGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE DENVER AREA. AS THE LOW DRAGS
SOUTHWARD...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO DIMINISH BY 10 PM
FROM DENVER NORTHWARD AND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE. HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM. EVEN THOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN FROM THE NORTH BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE
HAVE DESTABILIZED AND BECOME CONVECTIVE. THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING A DECREASING TREND TO THE NORTH AND THAT WILL CONTINUE. BY
MIDNIGHT...SHOULDNT BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UP TO
ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE
DENVER METRO AREA...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE
NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW FOCUSES THE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS/PARK COUNTY AREA. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE
PARK COUNTY/SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE. MEANWHILE...SNOW
HAS ALREADY DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW ADVISORIES TO BE CANCELLED
OVER EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS MUCH
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER
VALLEY INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN IN FULL FORCE ALL AREAS
WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING SURFACE TO ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND BUT COLD ENOUGH TEMPS ALOFT TO KEEP READING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. COLORADO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...DOWNWARD MOTION AND SOME MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NOSES
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF COLORADO FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
KICKING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND UTAH FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS...HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY PUT SLIGHT POPS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE KEPT
THE PLAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW...THE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN
RELUCTANT TO DISSIPATE. HAVE ALREADY ADJUSTED TAFS TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH ABOUT 05Z WITH CEILINGS IN
THE 2500-5000 FT AGL RANGE. STILL EXPECT SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THE LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE


&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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