Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 270239
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
839 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ISOLATED BUT STRONG STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED IN PARK COUNTY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE JUST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WAS BANKED UP AGAINST THE
FRONT RANGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FARTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS.
THE STORMS IN PARK COUNTY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...
THE CLOUD DECK ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AS A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
COLORADO. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT HAVE
HELPED TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AROUND 700 MB
AND ANOTHER ONE AROUND 500MB...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO
FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS
EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND PARK COUNTY THIS EVENING.

AIRMASS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY...ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN WILL PRODUCE WARM AIR ALOFT AND LIKELY
CAP CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LOWER HUMIDITIES AND CONTINUE
TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD ON SUNDAY. CAPPED AIRMASS IN RESPONSE
TO WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA AND CONFINE ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION...I.E. T-STORM
FORMATION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY
T-STORM FORMING ON OUTFLOW BNDRIES DRIFTING OFF THE FOOTHILLS. ON
MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE UPPER RIDGE BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER COLORADO REMAIN QUITE WARM AS A WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY SLY FLOW PERSISTS EAST OF THE MTNS.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE GAINING SOME
STRENGTH...HOWEVER MODELS ALSO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING UP
INTO THE RIDGE FROM MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY WRAPPING AROUND OVER
COLORADO BY LATE ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
WEAK PERTABATION IN NWLY FLOW SLIPPING ACRS NERN COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS ON THE PLAINS. AS
A RESULT COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. COULD SEE A REPEAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING OUT OF WYOMING LATE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COOLER
BOTH DAYS BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE DATE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING TO THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CLOUD DECK AROUND 6000-7000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP
THROUGH 06Z-08Z. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO TRANSITION TO NORMAL
DRAINAGE WINDS BUT WITH SOME CLEARING THE NORMAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06Z-08Z AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OR HIGHER FOOTHILLS ON
SATURDAY AND ONLY AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST APPROACH
GATES AFTER 20Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARK COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...MEIER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.