Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300401
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
901 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Area radars, observations and web cameras show light snow in the
high mountains, mostly over the divide at present. The brisk
north and northwest winds over the plains are relaxing at this
time. Will make a few minor GFE grid adjustments. latest models
keep showing clouds to decrease over most of the CWA tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Vertically stacked low over Minnesota will move very little
tonight through Wednesday morning, keeping the forecast area in
moderate northwest flow aloft. Some low/mid level moisture will
likely remain trapped in the mountains as airmass stabilizes later
tonight, so should see a continuation of scattered but light snow
showers over the higher ridges later tonight into Wednesday.
Otherwise dry conditions will prevail, and strong winds over the
plains this afternoon will slowly decrease through the evening.

On Wednesday, winds will increase slightly over the plains but
strongest gradient is shifting away. Along the Front Range, not
quite sure whether an anticyclone will set up or if sufficient
daytime heating and mostly sunny skies helps mix the west winds
in. Overall, it will be less windy tomorrow and the return of
sunshine will make it feel much warmer, despite slightly below
normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

For Wednesday night into Thursday weak ridging overhead will
result in drying conditions on the plains with NW winds
dominating. In the mountains west winds will help to increase
moisture over the higher terrain and create orographic snow
potential for early Thursday. There will also be weak QG ascent
that could help to drop 2 to 4 inches over the higher terrain and
mainly west facing slopes. Pressure falls west of the divide will
help to bring sfc winds to the NE ushering in slightly warmer
temperatures on the plains. This will bring highs into the 40s on
Thursday.

Friday the upper low that was over Idaho will drop south in the
desert SW bringing increasing moisture and QG instability to the
Northern and Central Mountains. WIth increase of moisture this
will allow for accumulating snow in the mountains during the day
Friday. An upper level trough will drop south into NE Colorado
bringing cooler temperatures and increasing NE winds. This will
increase chances of snow over the Foothills as well as the Palmer
Divide Friday. Highs will be in the 30s with this system.

For the weekend subsidence behind the trough will help to dry out
the region and increase temperatures back into the 40s. Models are
not showing much wind on Saturday as the jet is still upstream so
could work out to be a nice day to be outside. Sunday the dry
conditions continue as upper flow turns westerly. Highs will reach
even higher into the lower 50s under partly cloudy skies.

For the start of next week an elongated upper trough will
increase moisture over the region on Monday bringing a slight
chance of orographic snow to the mountains. A strong jet max
rounding the bottom of a trough will drop out of the Gulf of
Alaska on Tuesday into the Great Basin region. This disturbance
will be our next weather maker with a chance of snow for the
plains...stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 848 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

The north and northwesterly winds have decreased significantly at
DIA. Winds across the airfield are starting to move towards
normal drainage patterns. Models show weak normal drainage
patterns by 06Z tonight. Current TAF has south-southwest winds by
05Z. That may be pretty close. There will be no ceiling issues
and in fact, all levels of cloudiness should be on the decrease
overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...RJK



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