Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 052132
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
232 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

Northwest flow aloft will begin to moisten slightly overnight as
a short wave and upper level speed max drops southeast across the
Northern and Central Rockies. There isn`t much in the way of QG
lift, so mainly just an increase in mid/upper level clouds.
However, with sufficient orographics, can`t rule out a few light
snow showers over the northern mountains Wednesday. Wouldn`t
expect more than a dusting of snow on the higher peaks at this
point.

On the plains, a cold front will push south across the area early
Wednesday morning, with gusty northerly winds and colder
temperatures. Strong cold advection occurs with 700 mb temps
dropping to -12C to -15C. That means high temperatures will only
reach the mid to upper 30s across the plains, with mostly teens in
the mountains. Gusty winds to 40-45 mph and dry conditions will
bring elevated fire danger across the plains. Strongest winds and
highest concerns east of I-25, but colder temperatures should
limit critical fire danger conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

High amplitude ridge of high pressure will remain along the west
coast through Friday with a downstream trof over much of the
eastern U.S. Colorado will be in between these features with a
moderate to strong northerly flow over Colorado.

A disturbance and associated jet streak will move across the
state on Thursday with a chance of snow to the mountains but only
light amounts expected as moisture depth is somewhat shallow.
Across the plains on Thursday, temperatures will remain on the
colder side with blustery northwest winds, strongest on the
northeast plains. Enough moisture and with the jet streak won`t be
surprised to see some light snow showers/flurries on the plains.
Best chance for snow would be on the Palmer divide with more
preferred upslope flow from the n-nw.

Friday will be drier and warmer but will continue to see strong
northwest winds in the mountains and especially on the far
northeast plains with gusts in the 30-45kt range. The high
amplitude ridge aloft will shift inland late Friday and through
the weekend with continued dry with a warming trend. Winds will be
diminishing on the plains.

More wind and cooler temperatures again on next Monday and Tuesday
as another disturbance and jet streak will bring the change to
Colorado weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday. With regard to
winds, variable directions this afternoon should transition more
east/southeast at KDEN and KAPA through this evening. KBJC should
stay more north/northwest, but hold at speeds under 10 knots.
Winds are then expected to turn more northerly Wednesday morning
behind a cold front and increase to 15-20 knots, with gusts
around 30 knots at KDEN arriving around 17Z. Those winds should be
persistent through about 00Z Thursday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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