000
FXUS63 KICT 090550
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THIS EVENING:
THE WESTERN/TRAILING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
E ~30 MPH IS VACATING SE KS. ALL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THESE MOST RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SLEET/SNOW TO SOUTHERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVING WAY
TO CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A
WELCOME CHANGE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHERE THICKNESS PROGS SHOW
DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S.

CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MERGE
WITH ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION BUT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
SHOULD WITNESS ANOTHER WARM DAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE NORTH
WINDS WILL REALLY RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH WIND SPEEDS  LIKELY SURPASSING
ADVISORY LEVELS. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A COOLISH AND BREEZY DAY SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...HOWEVER WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY RETURN TO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

ONLY ITEM TO WATCH IS THAT OF SW WINDS THAT`LL INCREASE TO ~22KTS/25MPH
ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS MID-LATE SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS ~25KTS OVER CNTRL
KS. OTHERWISE IT`LL BE CLEARING SAILING THRU LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. MEANWHILE THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GIVE WAY TO VERY HIGH OR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  61  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      24  63  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          25  61  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  60  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  59  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  67  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  66  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          25  63  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       25  63  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     21  58  34  72 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         21  58  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  58  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    20  58  36  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES