000
FXUS63 KICT 190502
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave exiting eastern KS and
heading into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, more robust
upper energy will dig over the Pacific NW into the the Northern
Intermountain.

Main question for storm chances overnight will how much subsidence
behind the departing wave will lower chances for storms. Current
thinking is that there is still a small chance for a storm this
evening and tonight due to increasing mid level moisture transport
and mid level theta-e advection due to a fairly decent mid level
baroclinic zone. In addition, capping will be minimal once you
get above 850mb. So while confidence is high we are not looking at
widespread or even scattered activity tonight, hard to rule out a
couple storms.

Strong return flow will setup over the Plains on Tue as lee
troughing strengthens in response to shortwave continuing to dig
over the northwest CONUS. South winds will be close to advisory
criteria Tue afternoon with sustained speeds in the 25 to 30 mph
range. However, confidence isn`t high enough to run with one at
this point, mainly because even though we mix high, wind speeds
at the top of the mixing layer aren`t that impressive. Bigger
story Tue afternoon maybe the fire danger potential, which looks
to be very high for areas along and west of I-135. See fire
weather section below for additional details.

Pacific cold front is expected to slide into the area on Wed which
will bring slightly cooler air to much of the area, but still with
highs a degree or two above normal. Airmass looks fairly capped,
so not expecting storms to develop along along the front Wed
afternoon. Additional upper energy will track out of northern
Pacific and reinforce the trough over the northwest CONUS. This
will allow return flow to once again increase, pumping up
afternoon highs Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Both ECMWF and GFS agree on a sharp upper trough anchored over the
western CONUS to start this period, which will keep return flow
and above normal temps in place over the Plains. Through Fri,
precip chances are expected to remain north of the forecast area
with storm chances increasing slowly from northwest to southeast
Sat through Mon. Our central KS counties look to have better
rain chances this weekend due to being closer to the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

S winds will increase considerably Tue morning as sfc troffing
likewise strengthens from along the WY/SD border to along the NM/
TX border. Sustained speeds ~25kts w/ ~35kt gusts are likely along
& W of I-35/I-135 from ~18Z thru early Tue eve. Winds across SE KS
won`t be as strong (~20kts). All areas to remain VFR but with very
high to extreme grassland fire danger across all but SE KS Tue
afternoon be alert for smoke, especially at KRSL & KGBD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Grassland fire danger will be elevated into the very high category
Tuesday afternoon for areas along and especially west o I-135.

South winds will increase Tue afternoon to sustained speeds around
25-30 mph with gusts around 35 mph. Areas west of I-135 will have
the best chance for some of the higher gusts. Lowest RH`s Tue
afternoon will be around 20% for areas along and west of highway
14 with around 35-40% for areas along I-135. The only two counties
we considered for a red flag warning was Russell and Barton, but
after talking to DDC and with marginal GFDI values, will hold off
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  94  71  90 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      65  94  68  88 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          66  92  70  88 /  20  10   0  10
ElDorado        68  91  72  90 /  20  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  93  73  91 /  20  10   0  10
Russell         66  97  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      65  97  62  86 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          68  95  69  88 /  40   0   0   0
McPherson       65  94  68  87 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     68  91  74  92 /  10  10  10  10
Chanute         68  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            67  90  72  89 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    68  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...RBL