727
FXUS63 KICT 110527
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this evening into tonight
  across central Kansas. A few strong to severe storms are
  possible, with strong winds being the primary threat.

- Rain chances continue Friday through middle of next week.

- Warm Friday, cooler this weekend, then a warming trend to
  begin the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates two shortwaves
situated over the CONUS, with one exiting the Great Lakes region
and another slowly ejecting over the Central Rockies. The
latter of these will bring a surface trough through the area
later today as upper forcing shifts eastward. This boundary is
expected per short- term guidance to touch off showers and
thunderstorms as it moves through Nebraska and portions of
northwest Kansas this afternoon. Still thinking this activity
will have the potential for large hail initially, though given
the predominantly-linear nature of developing storms, the
primary hazard should quickly transition to strong winds.
Central Kansas will see the best chances for thunderstorms as
areas mainly east of I-135 are likely to have capping issues due
to warm mid-level temperatures. As such, have decided to keep
the best PoPs primarily along/west of I-135 and along/north of
US-56 for tonight.

Chances for showers and storms look to return to the area Friday
afternoon into early Saturday morning as a cold front moves through
the state. Ample instability/DCAPE alongside marginal shear will
continue to support damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Can`t
rule out a few quarter sized hailstones with the strongest storms
early on, but wind looks to be the primary threat especially during
the evening hours.

Looking ahead to the weekend and beyond, a stalled-out frontal zone
will provide continued rain chances in southern Kansas through
Sunday. The next opportunity for showers and storms will return
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as another cold front moves through
the region.

Regarding temperatures, highs areawide will reach the low to middle
90s Friday afternoon out ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
Following its passage, this boundary will result in cooler highs
Saturday through Sunday (middle to upper 80s) before a return to
near-normal highs to start the work week (near 90). The second cold
front to move through the area on Tuesday will bring mid-week
high temperatures back down to the middle 80s through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A weakening line of storms will impact the KSLN and KHUT TAFs
through 07-08Z before diminishing. A transient period of MVFR
cigs or visibility cannot be ruled out under a brief
thunderstorm but VFR is expected to prevail at most if not all
TAF sites. Gusty southwest winds are expected to develop over
much of the area today in the wake of a prefrontal trough axis.
This trough may become a focus for afternoon storms but better
chances may arrive along a southward moving cold front tonight.
Confidence in coverage remains too low to mention in area TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM