000
FXUS63 KICT 180454
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1154 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The main weather concern will be a prolonged period of heat for
Tuesday through at least Saturday.

Tonight through Tuesday:

A vort shear axis over the central High Plains, will move slowly
eastward across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas tonight into
Tuesday. Weak ascent from this feature, combined with 850 mb
moisture transport, will continue to initiate thunderstorms from
south-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas this afternoon and
evening, with east-southeastward propagation overnight. Will
maintain low probabilities (20-40%) of storms tonight for our
central Kansas counties near and north of Interstate 70. Storm
chances should shift eastward over northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri on Tuesday. 1000-850 thicknesses climb sufficiently such
that highs Tuesday should be a few degrees warmer than this
afternoon, around the century mark in central Kansas, with mid-
upper 90s in the south. A few counties up along I-70 may reach a
heat index of around 105 in the afternoon, with most of the area
in the 100-104 range.

Wednesday through Friday:

An upper high center of 594 to 597 decameters will build over the
south-central CONUS, with lee troughing and increasing 1000-850 mb
thicknesses across Kansas. Expecting most of central and south-
central Kansas to have high temperatures in the 100-105 degree range
by Thursday/Friday with upper 90s in the southeast. The degree to
which mixing lowers afternoon dewpoints becomes more uncertain
during this period, especially across central/south-central Kansas.
Feel confident that Salina will see back to back days of 105 heat
indices and will include them in the excessive heat warning that
covers northeast Kansas. Additional counties may need heat
headlines, especially if the short range models continue to have a
slight low bias on afternoon dewpoints, likely due to
underestimation of evapotranspiration effects.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

There is reasonable agreeement in the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian GEM
that Saturday will be another hot day across the forecast area to
the south of a cold front. The deterministic GFS is less amplified
with the parent shortwave in the northern branch Sunday into Monday,
compared to the ECMWF and GEM. Therefore, the GFS is slower to bring
the front through the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. For
now, a blended approach will allow highs coming down to near
seasonal climatological averages by Monday. Thunderstorm chances
will be in the forecast Saturday night into possibly Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Based on radar trends and ARW which has had a decent handle on
mainly cold pool driven storms this evening, will continue to
leave VCTS/thunderstorms out of the forecast. Still outside
chance that the storms may drift into KRSL/KSLN, but chances are
higher to the north, closer to the better forcing aloft. Winds at
those locations will likely be briefly affected by outflow from
storms to the north. Otherwise, diurnally gusty winds more
afternoon cumulus are anticipated. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  97  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      74  98  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          72  97  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         73 101  75 102 /  20   0  20   0
Great Bend      73 101  74 101 /  10   0  10   0
Salina          75 101  77 103 /  10  10  10   0
McPherson       74  98  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            70  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon Tuesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for
KSZ049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH