Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281642
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST US INTO KS. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BEFORE NOON. SO EXPECTING A RAINY
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS BOTH THE
NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A
LOW END SEVERE CHANCE AS WELL...BUT ONLY MODERATE TO LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT
PULLS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME
WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP A NICE SOAKING RAIN.

MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 150-180 PERCENT SUGGEST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO PICK UP SOME HEALTHY
QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FRIDAY: WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COULD STILL SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER NICE DAY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESNT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH FOR
SAT...ONLY INTO NRN OK. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN EVENING.
LATEST GFS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE
SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`...AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING...AS BULK
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
STAY TUNED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN KS OR NRN OK FOR MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS FOR MON INTO TUE....AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NARROW CORRIDOR OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
IMPACT ICT AND POSSIBLY HUT INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SOME LIGHTNING. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED BY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CNU TERMINAL
MAY NOT SEE ANY STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  86  66 /  50  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      86  67  86  63 /  60  60  40  30
NEWTON          87  68  85  64 /  50  60  50  30
ELDORADO        92  69  85  66 /  40  60  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  70  87  67 /  30  60  40  40
RUSSELL         86  65  85  62 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      87  65  86  63 /  50  60  30  20
SALINA          87  68  85  65 /  60  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       85  67  85  64 /  70  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  71  87  68 /  10  40  60  50
CHANUTE         93  70  86  67 /  10  40  60  60
IOLA            92  69  85  67 /  10  40  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  87  67 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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