Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 150906
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy extending from the Ohio
Valley through the TX Panhandle and to an upper low near Baja. At
the surface, a high extends from the southern High Plains into the
Great Basin.

Shortwave energy will continue pushing southeast today as the
surface high also shifts south. This will setup some decent
downslope today which will allow highs to be a few degrees warmer
than they were Thu. Attention will then turn to the upper low that
is currently situated near Baja. There is decent model agreement
that this feature will start to lift out tonight and will track
across the southern Plains Sat. The eastern half of KS looks to be
in the wrap around region of the wave as it quickly lifts off to
the northeast. This system has a good chance of bringing much of
eastern KS our first measurable precip since Nov 29th. Precip
looks to fall as all liquid with temps remaining above normal.

Pattern will remain active with a positive oriented shortwave
moving across the southern Plains Mon with additional energy
sliding over the northern Plains. Not expecting much in the way of
precip as the better moisture stays south of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Upper pattern will briefly flatten out for Tue into Wed which will
allow for a couple more days of above normal temps. Both ECMWF and
GFS remain consistent in significantly colder air spilling south
across the Plains starting Thu. The best chances for winter
precip with this wave look to be northeast of the forecast area,
over the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Currently
have high confidence that below normal temps will be in place by
Fri at the latest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

4000-6000 ft ceilings will continue to dissipate as increasing
large-scale forcing for subsidence arrives in the wake of the
shortwave trough through the early morning hours. Breezy
northwest winds will back to the southwest on Friday with speeds
of 10 to 20 mph common.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  30  59  40 /   0   0   0  50
Hutchinson      54  30  59  37 /   0   0   0  30
Newton          51  32  58  38 /   0   0   0  50
ElDorado        50  33  58  39 /   0   0   0  60
Winfield-KWLD   52  32  59  41 /   0   0   0  60
Russell         57  29  60  30 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      57  30  60  31 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          55  31  60  36 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       54  30  59  36 /   0   0   0  30
Coffeyville     49  33  59  41 /   0   0   0  90
Chanute         49  33  58  40 /   0   0   0  80
Iola            49  33  58  40 /   0   0   0  80
Parsons-KPPF    49  32  59  40 /   0   0   0  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



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