000
FXUS63 KICT 171048
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
548 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Upper ridging remains over the Plains into the mid and upper
Mississippi Valley. The upper impulse that has been responsible
for showers and storms the last few days over western KS/eastern
CO is now lifting over NW KS.

This upper wave will continue lifting northeast and is expected to
track over west-central Nebraska today and into western IA
tonight. While the bulk of the showers and storms will stay north
of the forecast area this evening, can`t rule out a few stray
showers or storms along the upper trough for areas along and north
of I-70. Large MCS is expected over the northern/central Plains
Tue night as shortwave energy passes over the area. There are a
couple model solutions that try and develop sct storms into
northeast and north central KS. Confidence in this occurring is
not very high, so will not get too aggressive with pops this far
south at this time.

Slow warming trend will continue into Wed, with heat indices
starting to top 100 on Tue over mainly central KS and area wide on
Wed. Not out of the question a heat headline maybe needed for Wed
for mainly eastern sections of our forecast area, but it will
depend on how much dewpoints mix out each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Well above normal temps will continue for Thu and Fri with heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range area wide. Highest heat
indices will be for the east and northeast portions of the
forecast area where dewpoints will likely not mix out as much.

There is good model agreement that shortwave energy will track
across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Fri night into Sat and
will help break down the upper ridge. This will also allow some
moonsonal moisture from the southwest CONUS to work into the
Plains. The ECMWF is more agressive diving the shortwave energy
further south compared to the GFS which would lead to a slight
cool down for Sun into Mon. Meanwhile, the GFS is more agressive
in spilling mid level moonsonal moisture into the Plains. Needless
to say, confidence in the weekend forecast is very low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

S winds will increase to a sustained 13-17kts ~18Z as a sfc trof
gradually strengthens along the Front Range. Cumulus ~5,000ft will
develop once again late this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    95  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      95  74  97  75 /   0  10   0   0
Newton          94  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   94  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         96  73 100  75 /  10  20   0  10
Great Bend      96  73  99  74 /  10  10   0  10
Salina          98  75 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson       95  74  97  75 /   0  10   0  10
Coffeyville     94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         94  70  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            93  70  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    94  70  94  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS