000
FXUS63 KICT 160736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EARLY MORNING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TODAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST
AIRMASS LINGERING OVER KANSAS WILL RECHARGE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
TO FAIRLY HIGH LEVELS...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP IN UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LIKELY. THIS
MCS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
WITH A STABILIZED AIRMASS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TOO DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM SATURDAY...HOWEVER FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS`S USUALLY RESULT IN
LOWER END FLOODING RISK. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NEXT UPPER WAVE REMAINS ON TRACK WHICH COULD GENERATE ANOTHER MCS
AND AFFECT CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE THAT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THE HEAT LOOKS TO BUILD OVER KANSAS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

IMMEDIATE CONCERN NOW IS ~1,000FT STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING IN
N/NW MANNER TOWARD KSLN. RECENT TRENDS DICTATE PLACING KSLN IN AN IFR
CIG STATUS FROM 09Z-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BUT PESSIMISTIC BUT WITH LGT
MOIST SLY FLOW AM ERRING ON SIDE OF CAUTION. STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 15Z. FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD (+)TSRA SUN AFTERNOON & ESPECIALLY SUN
EVENING. NEAR-TERM CONERNS REQUIRED GREATEST ATTENTION & AS SUCH WILL
ADDRESS CONVECTIVE ISSUES WITH LATER ISSUANCES (ESPECIALLY STARTING
WITH 18Z EDITION.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  67  86  64 /  20  80  20  10
HUTCHINSON      90  67  86  63 /  40  80  10  10
NEWTON          89  67  85  63 /  20  80  10  10
ELDORADO        88  67  85  63 /  20  80  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  68  86  65 /  20  80  30  10
RUSSELL         90  65  86  61 /  40  80  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  65  85  62 /  40  80  10  10
SALINA          90  66  86  62 /  30  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  86  62 /  30  80  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  68  85  65 /  30  80  50  10
CHANUTE         88  67  84  63 /  30  70  50   0
IOLA            87  67  84  62 /  30  60  50   0
PARSONS-KPPF    88  68  84  64 /  30  70  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ071-072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$