124
FXUS63 KICT 091913
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty thunderstorm coverage anticipated this afternoon into
  tonight.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances Thursday
  afternoon/evening into next week.

- Warm to end the work week, then a brief cooldown this weekend
  before a return of near-normal temperatures to start next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates mid-level ridging
over the Desert Southwest with an upper jet max beginning to enter
the Northern Plains. Weak forcing provided by small ripples in flow
riding over the ridge is expected to be accompanied by a diurnal
spark later this afternoon to produce chances for popup showers and
storms. While models have struggled with convective initiation
within this pattern, confidence is solid in any potential storm that
manages to develop being capable of strong wind gusts up to 60 mph.
This threat is supported by DCAPE values in excess of 1200 J/kg
throughout the forecast area, per short-term models and analysis.
The bubbling cumulus field located roughly along/east of Interstate
135 (as of 130 PM) will serve as the primary area of anticipated
development this afternoon, with activity expected to end this
evening.

PRECIPITATION...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY:

Attention shifts to Thursday evening as a mid/upper shortwave rolls
in off the Rockies. The associated Pac front is progged to touch off
showers and storms as it makes its way eastward across northwest
Kansas and Nebraska. Better instability and shear profiles are
anticipated to our north and west, though a few strong to severe
thunderstorms may be able to survive into central KS by late
evening. These will be capable of strong wind gusts with the system
tracking to the east through the overnight hours.

As prior forecasts have highlighted, a cold front is expected to
arrive Friday afternoon and into the overnight hours. This boundary
will provide chances for scattered thunderstorm activity as it makes
its way to the southeast. Models continue to prog a high-CAPE/low-
shear environment within the warm sector of the system, so the
primary threat with the strongest activity will likely be strong
wind gusts alongside locally heavy rainfall.

SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY:

Off-and-on chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue from
this weekend into the middle of next week. The aforementioned
frontal boundary is progged per mid/long-range models to stall over
southeast Kansas, bringing continued chances for rain primarily
along and south of the Kansas Turnpike through Sunday. Models then
bring a cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The arrival of this boundary appears to be the best chance for
widespread rainfall in the coming week.

TEMPERATURES...

High temperatures areawide will reach the middle 90s to near 100 for
Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge builds in. A cold front
making its way through the area on Friday will result in cooler
highs Saturday through Sunday (middle to upper 80s) before a return
to near-normal highs to start the work week (upper 80s to low
90s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Breezy south winds will pick up this afternoon in
central and south central KS with gusts up to 20 kts possible,
especially in central KS. Winds will weaken slightly overnight
before picking up again by mid-morning Thursday.

Otherwise, chances for popup showers and thunderstorms will
return later this afternoon as daytime heating touches off isolated
to scattered coverage. The strongest storms will be capable of gusts
up to 40-60 mph. Confidence in impacts to specific sites is too low
for a mention at this time, though current thinking is largely areas
along/south of US-50 will see the best chances for storms, so will
AMD as necessary.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JWK