Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
525 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Today and Wednesday...

Southerly flow will be taking over today and will begin a strong
warming trend for the next two days.  This southerly flow will help
tap into an open Gulf of Mexico and allow some moisture transport to
occur.  Unfortunately for the CWA, the bulk of the moisture
transport will be restricted to the far southeastern sections of
Kansas, limiting the chances for precipitation over the next two
days.  On the good side, this southerly flow will turn a little to
the west and set up some good downslope flow for late today and
Wednesday. Temperatures could be a little warmer today and
especially tomorrow. Winds will also pick up for Tuesday afternoon
and Wednesday which will help the warming conditions.  Record
temperatures look too far out of reach to be considered for
Wednesday at this time.


The forecast not only becomes interesting but very tricky.  All
models bring a strong front through the region but timing looks
difficult.  In this case, timing will be everything for
temperatures.  ECMWF and GFS both bring the front trough the I-70
corridor early as it has from previous runs but then stalls the
front through day, delaying frontal passage through central and
southern Kansas until the late afternoon and evening time frame.
This sets up a very tricky temperature forecast for Thursday as the
CWA will likely be split between two different weather set ups for
much of day. Complicating matters is the uncertainty of cloud cover
for the day.  The strongest moisture transport looks to be in
southeast Kansas which will keep the clouds in the region region and
they are likely to be thick enough to keep temps down but further to
the west, clouds could be thiner allowing temperatures to rise.
Unlike Wednesday, Thursday`s record highs are vulnerable as they are
about 10 degrees lower than Wednesday`s records.  A few records
could fall Thursday afternoon in southern Kansas if the front is
slow enough and cloud cover is kept to a minimum.  The current
forecast for southern Kansas is just a few degrees shy of the
records. Further to the north along the I-70 corridor, temperatures
are not expected to approach records as northwesterly flow is
expected to take hold early in the day.  Confidence for temperatures
across the CWA is low at this time due to the uncertainty on the
timing and speed of the incoming cold front.  Regardless, there will
likely be a very wide range of temperatures for Kansas Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The extended range starts out cold Friday as the CAA behind
Thursday`s front roars into the region.  Strong northerly flow will
make Friday a below normal day with wind chills likely to hovering
between zero and 10 for a portion of the day.  Friday looks to be
the coldest day as this cold high pressure will be transient and is
expected to move out of the region and the winds will shift back to
the south.  Temperatures will warm again but this warming trend is
not expected to last as long as another frontal system will approach
by Sunday night and bring temperatures back down to normal.
Precipitation chances do increase for the beginning of next week but
there is little confidence in this as all of the major model groups
have significantly different solutions.



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

South winds will bring an increase in low level moisture to
locations along/east of the Kansas turnpike later today and
tonight. This will manifest itself in VFR stratocu bases-cigs at
first, before lowering to MVFR and perhaps IFR late tonight.
Patchy MVFR vsbys are also expected across parts of central and
southeast Kansas late tonight.



Issued at 257 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Dry conditions are expected to continue over the next few days.
These dry conditions will be combined with some breezy conditions
starting Wednesday.  Strong southerly winds will bring the grassland
fire danger into the very high category for much of southern and
southeast Kansas.  Thursday will have similar conditions as the
frontal systems is expected to be slow to advance into southern
Kansas.  Unfortunately, the frontal passage will not bring the fire
danger down as there will be little to no moisture with this system
and winds will remain high. This will keep the grassland fire danger
in the very high category through Friday despite the northerly
winds and colder temperatures.



Wichita-KICT    54  40  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      53  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          51  40  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        52  40  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   54  41  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         57  32  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      58  33  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          54  36  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       51  37  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     51  40  68  55 /   0  20  10  10
Chanute         51  40  68  53 /   0  10  10  10
Iola            51  38  66  52 /   0  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    50  40  68  55 /   0  10  10  10




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