Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271744
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TODAY: MAIN CONCERN IS HEAT AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES. BASED ON
LATEST HOURLY FORECASTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
PERSISTENCE...HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH CRITERIA IN SOUTHEAST
KS AND PROBABLY COME UP SHORT AT REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL MARGINAL CRITERIA BOTH YESTERDAY AND TODAY...WILL
JUST HOIST ADVISORY FOR NOW FOR THE MOST PROBABLE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST KS. OTHER CONCERN IS CONVECTION...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LINGER PAST DAYBREAK
WITH GOOD 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR CHANCES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS PAST
EVENING AND TONIGHT ...AND THINK ANOTHER MCS WILL ROLL INTO THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A TOUGH CALL...WITH NO CONVECTION
AND BRISK WINDS...LOWS WOULD BE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80...BUT WITH
CONVECTION...LOWER 70S ARE MORE LIKELY. WITH DECENT CHANCE OF
STORMS...HEDGED CLOSER TO THE LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORTH WHERE
CONVECTION IS MORE PROBABLE.

TUE-WED:
BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON TUE...BUT IN ABSENCE
OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
BE GIVEN INCREASING HEIGHTS. THIS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON TUE
NIGHT. HOWEVER CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER WED/WED NIGHT WITH
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...AND NOT ENTIRELY
CONVINCED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS ADVERTISED. EVEN
IF FRONT IS WELL SOUTH...ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
WHERE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUE
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE..THEN COOL ON WED BEHIND FRONT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY ON THU...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM.
THE REAL CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AND NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PERIODIC RIPPLES
AND CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER CHANCES DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT ANYTIME COULD BE FAIR GAME.
INITIALIZATION GRIDS HAD LOW CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS SO ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT OVER NORTHWEST KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE LESS CAPPING AND AN UPPER WAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL KS TAFS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KRSL AROUND 17Z
WITH WINDS FLIPPING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  78 101  75 /  10   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      98  77 101  72 /  20  10  10  30
NEWTON          96  76 101  72 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  77  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  77  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         98  75  94  68 /  10  20  20  50
GREAT BEND      97  75  96  69 /  20  20  20  40
SALINA          99  78 100  69 /  20  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       98  77 100  70 /  20  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  76  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         95  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  77  96  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-095-096-
100.

&&

$$


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