Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 260801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID-LEVEL ACCAS WAS VISIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE IR SATELLITE
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ALONG AN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON
THE NOSE OF A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 310K SURFACE IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN IN THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE WITH THE SHALLOW
MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. STRONG INSOLATION AND SLIGHTLY
WARMING THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT. A 40
KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INITIATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS/FLINT HILLS. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD POSE AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE-STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...WILL EMERGE FROM THE
ROCKIES AND TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS GULF MOISTURE IMPROVES...WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL JET AUGMENTATION. IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND RECENT MODEL DATA...WE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT.
STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ENDING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS HOOVERING
AROUND MVFR. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING A BIT.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      90  68  90  68 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          88  65  90  67 /  10  20  20  50
ELDORADO        89  65  90  68 /  10  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  67  91  69 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         95  69  93  65 /  10  10  40  70
GREAT BEND      94  69  94  66 /  10  10  40  60
SALINA          92  68  90  67 /  10  10  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  68  90  68 /  10  10  20  50
COFFEYVILLE     88  63  89  67 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         87  62  87  67 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            85  61  86  67 /   0  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  62  87  67 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.