382
FXUS63 KICT 101116
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
616 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged active pattern thunderstorm-wise expected, with
  off-and-on thunderstorm chances this evening through next
  Wednesday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible
  each episode, along with heavy rainfall.

- Above average temperatures today-Friday, a modest cool down
  this weekend, warming trend Monday-Tuesday of next week, with
  a possible strong cold front again by next Wednesday-Thursday
  knocking temperatures back to below average values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

PRECIPITATION:

TODAY-TONIGHT...Thinking the MCS currently progressing southeast
across Nebraska and far northern Kansas should remain mostly
northeast of the forecast area this morning, along the eastern
fringe of a stout EML advancing slowly east across Mid-America.

Otherwise, a potent shortwave approaching from the west is expected
to initiate scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon
across the western High Plains in vicinity of a lee trough. This
activity should then track east-southeast into the forecast area
this evening-tonight. Strong instability, hefty DCAPE, and slightly
better deep layer shear should support a marginally severe hail and
damaging downburst wind threat, especially from central and north-
central KS on west-northwest. Given the relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and associated capping issues, activity may tend to
struggle to survive much further east then roughly I-135.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A strong cold front approaching from the
north will likely be the focus for scattered thunderstorms Friday
afternoon-evening-night across the region. As has been the case,
strong instability, hefty DCAPE, and marginal shear will support a
threat of marginally severe hail, damaging downburst winds, and
pockets of heavy rainfall with the strongest activity. Strong-severe
threat should tend to wane with time as the evening progresses.

THIS WEEKEND-MID NEXT WEEK...The unsettled weather pattern
continues, with off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances continuing in
vicinity of a stalled frontal zone amidst additional upper energy
approaching from the west. Thinking chances this weekend will be
best over southern KS and points south. As we head into Monday-
Tuesday, the frontal zone washes out, although subtle mid-upper
perturbations amidst increasing precipitable waters should support a
continued spotty shower/storm threat. Moving forward from Tuesday
night through Wednesday night, deterministic consensus progresses a
strong cold front into the region, supporting additional storm
chances.

TEMPERATURES:

A building upper ridge along with an approaching cold front will
support above average temperatures today and Friday, reaching the
90s to near 100 degrees, warmest over north-central KS. Thereafter,
a cold front will bring a weak to modest cool down this weekend back
into the 80s to near 90 degrees. With deterministic and ensemble
consensus keeping the upper ridge at bay, along with periodic
thunderstorm chances, there is a low chance for a prolonged period
of intense above average summer heat the next 7-10 days. A
significant cool down is looking more probable by Wednesday-Thursday
of next week, as deterministic consensus progresses a strong cold
front south into the region. Could be looking at overnight lows in
the low-mid 60s, and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s...about
10 degrees below mid-July averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Through mid-morning, can`t rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm
in vicinity of the SLN TAF site. However, thinking much better
chances will remain north of there, so left mention out of 12z
TAFs for now.

From about mid-late morning through early evening, stout/gusty
south winds will prevail, especially west of the Flint Hills.
Gusts exceeding 20-30 kts are probable.

By early to mid-evening, thunderstorm chances are expected to
move east into portions of central and north-central Kansas. The
primary threat with this activity will be strong/gusty winds,
marginally severe hail, and brief heavy rain. Included mention
at all TAF sites except ICT and CNU where confidence in storms
surviving that far east is lower.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK