Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 140535
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Warm advection continues to increase across the forecast this
afternoon, with temps climbing back towards normal. Mid level
moisture with the warm advection has led to increasing cloud cover
in SE KS, but the better low level moisture return is located south
of the forecast area along the Red river valley.

Warm advection and low level moisture advection will continue this
evening and tonight, with low clouds along the Red River surging
north into SE KS late this evening and especially after midnight.
Some uncertainty on whether this low level moisture will lead to
very low stratus or possibly light drizzle and patchy fog, as low
temps stay above freezing. A little worried that winds will stay too
mixy for widespread dense fog, with low clouds and drizzle and
possibly some patchy fog, especially for areas east of the KS
turnpike.  Also some concern about winds decoupling to the north of
moisture advection, across central KS, with evening clear skies and
light winds leading to some patchy dense fog formation along
interstate 70. So will probably go with a mixture of patchy fog and
areas of fog for areas east of I-135 as moisture increases.

Morning fog and cloud cover across southern KS will be slow to burn
off, for the morning hours, given the low sun angle, but continued
warm advection and winds increasing will eventually scour out most
of the low clouds by mid day. Expect max temps well above normal for
Wed, with downslope flow leading to max temps in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Gonna see one more warm day on Thu for portions of srn KS, as a
strong cold front pushes south across the forecast area for the
daytime hours. Could see quite a temp contrast across the forecast
area for Thu, as the front makes slow progress into srn KS for thu
afternoon, which will make the temp forecast tricky, with placement
of the front key on how warm or cool max temps will be. Current
model trends suggest that the cold front will push into central KS
for the morning hours, but will make slow progress into srn KS for
Thu afternoon. Downslope flow ahead of the front and compressional
heating suggests that max temps in srn KS will climb into the lower
70s, even with expected mid level cover. Record highs a little lower
on Thu, so could see a couple of record max temps broken on Thu
across srn KS for both Wichita and Chanute.

Cold front will push south into OK for Thu evening. Convergence
ahead of the front may also lead to some light rain or possibly rain
mixed with light snow across SE KS by Thu evening/night as the
colder air moves in, but moisture ahead of the front is limited,
with better lift and dynamics staying to the north of the area.

Much colder air, (almost 25 degrees colder) will move into the area
for Fri, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure moves across the area.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Expect a brief warmup for the weekend, with breezy S-SW winds
returning to the region, as the surface high pressure area quickly
moves to the east of plains. This will lead to temps again climbing
above normal.

Another strong cold front, similar to todays, will drop south across
the area on Mon or possibly Tue. Medium range models differ on the
timing of this front, and the next surge of colder air. As the front
pushes south, medium range models seem to suggest some bouts of
light precip with temps having a big impact on the type of precip,
either being rain/snow or freezing rain.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A warm, moist southerly flow regime will lead to reduced flight
categories across much of south central and southeast KS tonight
into Wednesday morning with widespread low cigs although
confidence in more widespread low visibilities has diminished with
dense mid and high level clouds ahead of the the stratus lifting
north out of the Southern Plains region. IFR and LIFR are
expected to develop after 08-10Z and linger through 15-16Z before
improving for most locations. The exception will be far southeast
KS where low cigs may linger through the morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Breezy S-SW winds will return for the entire area for
Wed and across srn KS on Thu.  Dry cured grasses and gusty SW winds
will lead to a very high grassland fire danger both days.

A strong cold frontal will push south across the region Thu night.
The north winds on the backside of the front will create a very high
grassland fire danger on Fri.

Ketcham

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Record high temperatures for Thu, 2/15:

Wichita:  72 set in 1947
Chanute: 72 set in 1947

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    37  71  50  73 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      34  71  46  69 /   0   0  10   0
Newton          35  68  48  69 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        39  69  52  71 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   41  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         30  71  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      33  73  43  64 /   0   0  10   0
Salina          33  68  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       34  69  45  66 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     42  68  56  74 /  20  10  10  10
Chanute         41  68  54  72 /  10  10  10  20
Iola            40  66  53  72 /  10  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    43  68  56  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham
CLIMATE...Ketcham



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