Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 020453
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT
POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO KMHK...THROUGH CENTRAL KS BETWEEN KSLN &
K9K7...TO THE KS/OK BORDER SOUTH OF KDDC. SE OF THE TROUGH...VERY
MOIST AIR IS ENTRENCHED PRIMARILY SE OF THE TURNPIKE AS EVIDENCED
BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING SE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID
80S RESIDE WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS 90S DOMINATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT:
AS EXPECTED...THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG COVERING MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITIES ALONG & WEST OF THE MO BORDER. MLCAPES HAVE
INCREASED ~1500 J/KG SINCE NOON. WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SCOOTING SE ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO 6-KM BULK SHEAR
FROM 35-40KTS WILL COVER THESE SAME AREAS. SUCH INSTABILITY & DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED & WINDS ~70 MPH
BOTH REMAIN THREATS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A DUE SOUTH COMPONENT...THEREBY KEEPING THE 1 KM
SHEAR IN CHECK. AS SUCH THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING WITH
THE GREATEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL TARGETING SOUTHWEST MO. DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES MARKEDLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF 1.80-2.00 INCHES COVERING MUCH OF EAST & SOUTHEAST KS.
AS SUCH HEAVY RAINS ARE A CERTAINTY BUT THE 1 & 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ~2.80 INCHES & ~3.50 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS ~9-10PM THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.

THU-THU NIGHT:
SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS
WOULD ENABLE A LOWER-DECK MOISTURE CHANNEL TO GET BETTER DEFINED
FROM MOST OF CENTRAL OK TO WESTERN KS. WITH THE NEXT (ALBEIT WEAK)
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SE OVER WESTERN KS SCATTERED SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SPREAD E-SE ACROSS THE REGION.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FOR MOST PERIODS BUT THE ABSENCE OF
LOWER-DECK BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO MAKE PIN-POINTING GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DIFFICULT. AS SUCH HAVE ASSIGNED 20-30%
POPS TO MOST AREAS FOR THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

IT`LL BE A WET START TO THE WORK-WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER-DECK WAVE
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SURGE E FROM SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA TO
ONTARIO. THIS CHARACTER WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO KICT COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE UPPER-DECK WAVE MOVING DUE E THE FRONT
IS LIKELY TO STALL OVER KICT COUNTRY MON & MON NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
AN ALMOST W-E ORIENTATION TO THE STALLING FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF
HAS THE FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN IA...ACROSS CENTRAL KS...TO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
A GOOD BET FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD FROM MON THRU TUE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE FRONT IS WOBBLING OVER KICT...AND HAVE MADE THE WINDS VARIABLE
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THINK THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWARD AT KICT AND KCNU. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN FAR
EASTERN KANSAS MAY IMPACT KCNU...AND HAVE LEFT A VCTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IT WILL REACH THAT FAR
WESTWARD...BUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS A THUNDERSTORM MAY
IMPACT KCNU. BEYOND 09Z...THINK THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM CONCERN WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...AND THE NEXT CONCERN MAY BE MVFR
CEILINGS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINAL SITES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
THIS EITHER...AND ONLY HAVE SCATTERED CEILINGS FOR NOW. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME
DISCREPANCIES SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. WATCH FOR
LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  69  87 /  30  40  40  30
HUTCHINSON      71  86  67  87 /  10  40  30  30
NEWTON          72  85  67  85 /  20  40  30  30
ELDORADO        71  87  68  85 /  30  40  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  92  69  87 /  30  40  50  40
RUSSELL         70  84  66  87 /  10  50  30  20
GREAT BEND      70  84  66  87 /  10  40  30  20
SALINA          71  83  67  85 /  10  40  30  30
MCPHERSON       71  84  66  86 /  10  40  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     75  90  69  85 /  40  40  50  40
CHANUTE         73  87  68  84 /  40  40  40  40
IOLA            72  85  68  83 /  40  30  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  89  69  85 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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