000
FXUS63 KICT 191748
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Today-tonight:
Front will lift lift north this morning with increasing south flow
across the area. At least some cirrus will linger over the area
most of the day as well. Anticipating temperatures will be close
yesterday. Winds will fall off only slightly at sunset, leading to
warmer lows tonight.

Friday:
Increasing surface pressure gradient will result in advisory
criteria winds for at least central KS and possibly some of south
central KS. Clouds and low level moisture will be on the increase
during the day, but temperatures still should approach those on
Thursday given warm start and some breaks in the clouds early
afternoon. Some models dribble out some QPF in the afternoon in
far southwest sections, aided by a ripple in upper flow. This
seems less probable, given weak forcing and cap. Seems more likely
closer to nose of moisture advection well to the northeast. Winds
will remain quite brisk Friday night, leading to very warm minimums.

Saturday:
GFS and ECMWF remain fairly close on timing of frontal passage
during the day. NAM appears to be a fast outlier. The front will
traverse the over half the forecast area during the daylight
hours. Some strong-severe storms are expected given the sufficient
but lower end shear and instability. Temperatures could be a
challenge given warm air advection/warm start ahead of the front.
The progressive front should limit heavy rain threat although 1-2
inches are possible in southeast KS. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Rapid clearing anticipated on Sunday. Still thinking temperatures
may be a bit cool on both Sunday/Monday given dry airmass,
abundant sunset and low level downslope flow. Discrepancies in
medium range models on upper flow pattern dominate the remainder
of this forecast. Given run to run uncertainty, no adjustments
were made to initialization grids. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Main aviation concern will be wind shear overnight along with
strong south winds on Fri.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper impulse approaching the four
corners region with much more robust upper energy about to come on
shore over the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, low pressure
will strengthen over the high Plains which will crank up south
winds across the entire area. Should see some wind shear overnight
with 45kt sw winds expected by the time you get to 2,000ft. South
winds by early Fri afternoon should be sustained around 30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph, especially for areas west of I-135.
Confidence remain high that VFR conditions will remain in place
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  57  77  66 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      81  57  76  65 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          81  57  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        80  57  77  65 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   79  57  77  66 /   0   0  10  20
Russell         83  60  78  65 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      82  59  77  65 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          82  58  78  67 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       81  57  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     79  55  77  65 /   0   0   0  20
Chanute         79  54  77  64 /   0   0   0  20
Iola            79  54  77  64 /   0   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    79  54  77  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL