000
FXUS63 KICT 200818
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY-MON:
KEEPING WARY EYE ON 300MB TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO KS
WHICH WILL INTERSECT WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FEATURES ARE SO WEAK THAT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND WOULD NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FOCUS TURNS TO THE CHALLENGE OF RAMPING UP
TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE. GIVEN FLOW DOES NOT
BECOME DOWNSLOPE THIS PERIOD...WILL USE BEST VERIFYING MODELS
FROM YESTERDAY FOR TODAY AND THEN BLEND IN TYPICAL BEST
VERIFICATION ON TUE. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE FOR TUE.
INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY SUBSTANTIALLY DECOUPLE AT TIMES DURING
THE NIGHT SO IN ABSENCE OF BIG MOISTURE SURGE...WILL RUN A BIT
COOLER ON MINIMUMS THAT WE WOULD OTHERWISE WITH RETURN FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MON LOOK VERY SLIM WITH ONLY WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

MON NIGHT-TUE:
SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH CHANCES BETTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND PERIPHERY OF CAP AND CLIP FAR NE BORDER
THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY LINGER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION AND LIGHT UP GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING. TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KS. WILL KEEP SOUTH
CENTRAL KS JUST SHY OF 100 GIVEN RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO...
BUT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/IMPACT ON SURFACE FRONT/CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF GENERATES MCS OVER
CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT ALONG ITS MORE SOUTHERLY FRONT...WHILE MORE
NORTHERN GFS HAS PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH AND BARELY ENCROACHES ON
CENTRAL KS BY 1200 UTC WED. BY 1800 UTC WED ECMWF HAS BOUNDARY IN
OK WITH SURFACE RIDGING UNDERWAY...WHILE GFS HAS FRONT ONLY HALF
WAY ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE SLOWER GFS...IT STALLS FRONT NEAR OK
BORDER BY WED NIGHT...AND GENERATING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF FRONT AS ITS OVERRUN BY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH DO SHOW
RETURN FLOW BY LATE THU...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRI. PROBLEM OF TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT/CONVECTION/OUTFLOW
REAPPEARS ON FRI NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE UNCERTAINTY ON SAT. MAIN
TWEAKS TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS WAS TO MINIMIZE IMPACT OF CONVECTIVE
QPF BULLSEYES ON PRECIPITATION FORECAST. OVERALL HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE 24-HR FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS IMPACTING KCNU AND MAINTAINED AN MVFR
TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER WEST...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED AND
MAINTAINED VFR. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS COMMON BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  70  94  73 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      91  71  96  74 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          89  70  94  73 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        87  69  93  73 /  10   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  72  98  75 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      93  71  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          94  74  99  76 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       91  71  96  74 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  91  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$