403
FXUS63 KICT 200759
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Today-tonight...A sharpening dryline over western Kansas and a
stalling frontal zone across southern Nebraska should serve us
foci for widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Given
mid/upper flow out of the northwest and south/southwesterly low-
level flow, this activity should tend to move/propagate southeast
during the evening, affecting locations possibly as far southeast
as roughly Hutchinson/McPherson. The greatest potential for severe
weather in the form of large hail and damaging winds will likely
remain over western Kansas, although a few strong to marginally
severe storms could venture into central Kansas this evening.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Thunderstorm chances should increase
late Wednesday afternoon and especially evening, as a southern
Canada shortwave attempts to drive a frontal zone southeast into
northwest Kansas. Like today, axis of greater instability and
convergence over western/northwest Kansas should keep the brunt of
severe probabilities just west/northwest of the forecast area,
although a few strong to severe storms could attempt to venture
into locations generally west of Salina to Lyons during the
evening as activity propagates southeast. Threats will once again
be damaging winds and large hail.

Thursday-Thursday night...Thunderstorm chances may impact
locations generally along/north of I-70 Thursday evening, as a
stout area of high pressure approaching from the north reinforces
a frontal zone over southern Nebraska or far northern Kansas.
Severe weather is once again possible, with most activity probably
remaining north of the forecast area.

Temperatures...It will be hot the next 3 days, with low-level
thicknesses supporting highs in the 90s. Dewpoints and associated
humidity values will be slowly on the increase as well, supporting
heat indices near 100 degrees over central Kansas Wed-Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Friday-Monday...Confidence is high surrounding an eventual cool
down this weekend, as a longwave trough drops south out of Canada,
but considerable uncertainty remains surrounding the timing.
Operational runs finally agree that precipitation chances will
increase Friday afternoon across the region with the initial push
of cooler air, although an early to midday frontal timing progged
by the models may tend to lessen severe potential. The big
question mark is Saturday, with the ECMWF continuing to advertise
high pops as a secondary push of cooler air approaches from the
north, while the GFS and GEM remain mostly dry. Given the
consensus, am tending to favor the GFS/GEM solutions.
Nevertheless, cooler temperatures should eventually make it down
this way, with highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 50s-60s
Saturday-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. A gradual increase in the south to southwest surface wind
is expected by Tuesday afternoon. Isolated late afternoon
convection is expected across western Kansas on Tuesday, though
any activity should remain west of central Kansas until very late
in the forecast valid period. So for now have omitted mention of
VCTS due to the very low probability.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  69  94  71 /   0  10   0  10
Hutchinson      94  70  95  71 /   0  20   0  20
Newton          93  69  93  70 /   0  10   0  10
ElDorado        90  68  91  69 /   0  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   92  68  93  70 /   0  10   0   0
Russell         96  71  98  70 /  20  50  10  40
Great Bend      96  71  97  70 /  10  40  10  30
Salina          97  71  97  72 /  10  20   0  20
McPherson       95  70  95  71 /   0  20   0  20
Coffeyville     91  66  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         90  67  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            91  67  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    91  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED