000
FXUS63 KICT 020918
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED JUST OFF
OF SOUTHERN CA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH TROUGHING STRENGTHENING IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THE MORE LIKELY
PRECIP TYPE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
DRIZZLE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO STRONG WARM ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
280-285K LAYER WHICH WILL BE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME ADVECTION FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL
NOT BE DENSE. THE CHALLENGING PART OF TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL IF
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DRIZZLE TO FREEZE. AT THIS
POINT WILL GO WITH THE THINKING THAT THE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY MAY EVEN RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE NEAR I-70
WHERE TEMPS MAY OVER NEAR FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE-TUE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
WED MORNING. HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS ON TUE AS THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING. THE NAM IS SLOWER COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND FOR NOW HAVE A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE GFS BASED ON
RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KS...WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TUE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE THE COLDEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN A FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...WHICH IS THE LOW 50S. WHILE A
FEW IMPULSES DIVE DOWN IN THE NW FLOW...NONE OF THEM LOOK TO HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RECENT SNOW COVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING A BIT FASTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT LATE EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE ON IFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS
HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE DURING MONDAY
BECOMING GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

KED


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HIGHER RH`S AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THE FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL KS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER 1 PM.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS...WHERE GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE WED
WHICH WILL KEEP RH`S ON THE HIGH SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  34  48  19 /  20  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      35  34  45  17 /  10  20  10  20
NEWTON          35  34  47  17 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        36  34  49  19 /  20  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  36  50  20 /  20  20  20  30
RUSSELL         34  32  37  14 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      34  33  39  15 /  10  20  10  20
SALINA          36  33  42  15 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       35  34  45  16 /  10  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     39  37  53  22 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         38  37  52  20 /  20  30  30  30
IOLA            38  37  52  19 /  20  30  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    39  37  52  21 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$