000
FXUS63 KICT 160715
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
215 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Showers and storms will be ongoing early in the period and may allow
the effective front to be forced further south lowering confidence
in the afternoon forecast. The latest model consensus suggests the
front will set up along or just west of the Kansas Turnpike corridor
by early to mid afternoon. Convergence along the front will be
sufficient to overcome the cap with scattered to numerous storms
anticipated after 21z. MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG combined with
steep mid lvl lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40 knots should
allow for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds.
Drier air will quickly arrive in the wake of the front with storm
activity diminishing by 09Z or so.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on
Thursday and Thursday evening with seasonable temperatures expected.

Another progressive shortwave trough will dig across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area on Friday driving a cold front south across
the Central Plains states. This front may provide a focus for deep
moist convection on Friday afternoon and Friday evening. If model
trends remain consistent, another round of severe thunderstorms will
be possible across the area on Friday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Shortwave ridging will return to the area over the weekend
with mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures. Highs on
Sunday may climb above normal across the area reaching the mid 90s
over central KS.

Unsettled weather may return early in the week as northwest
mid/upper flow is progged across the central Conus. Another cold
front may arrive toward the end of the period bringing higher
probabilities for showers and storms once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

850 mb southerly moisture transport will increase overnight and
modest upper-level diffluent flow may allow for a cluster of
thunderstorms to develop in central Kansas during the morning
hours Wednesday. Hi-res model guidance indicates a break in the
convection around midday into early afternoon. Scattered strong-
severe storms should initiate along the cold front in
central/south-central Kansas Wednesday afternoon, likely forming
into a solid line of storms as it moves through southeast Kansas
early Wednesday evening. Exact timing at the terminals is very
difficult this far out, and will use VCTS for now.

Areas of low stratus (IFR/MVFR), are progged to develop across
much of eastern Kansas late tonight into the early morning hours
Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints around 70 to
the lower 70s) and a slight uphill component to the surface wind
will aid in the stratus development. Any fog should be of the
patchy variant and not overly problematic. The stratus should
break or at least improve much by midday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  67  88  67 /  50  50   0  20
Hutchinson      89  65  88  66 /  40  30   0  20
Newton          88  65  86  66 /  50  50   0  10
ElDorado        88  66  86  66 /  70  80   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  88  68 /  60  60   0  20
Russell         85  61  89  65 /  40  20   0  30
Great Bend      85  62  88  65 /  30  10   0  30
Salina          87  65  89  66 /  40  30   0  20
McPherson       88  64  87  65 /  40  40   0  20
Coffeyville     88  71  88  67 /  60  80  10  10
Chanute         87  69  86  65 /  60  80  10  10
Iola            87  69  86  65 /  60  80  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    88  70  87  67 /  60  80  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC