Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 012330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE ITS
WAY EAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN THOUGH NOT
YET WITH VCTS. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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