000
FXUS63 KICT 300519
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1119 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE SLOWLY
CHANGING TO NORTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK. AS A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES
LATERALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS
CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. OVERALL THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY NICE FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER/FIRST
OF DECEMBER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAXIMUM INSOLATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BE EVEN WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID
30S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD
AIR INVASION NEXT WEEK. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK AND MILD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE KANSAS PLAINS. THE INITIAL UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DEVELOPING WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME DURING WEDNESDAY THOUGH DETAILS ON TIMING MAY BE REFINED
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SQUEAK OUT ONE MORE MILD DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A
DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LONGWAVE LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY WITH BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS KANSAS. MODESTLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
TEMPS MUCH BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS THE KANSAS PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
ENSURING A FRIGID START TO DECEMBER AND THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
SEASON.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST
SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. FLOW TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY WIND.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  55  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          29  54  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        31  54  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  56  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  56  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  56  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          27  54  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  55  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  55  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         31  53  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            32  52  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    33  54  32  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$