716
FXUS63 KICT 072052
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
352 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and storm chances are expected through Tuesday
  evening.

- Additional on-and-off storm chances return Thursday night into
  the weekend.

- Warming trend continuing this week with a slight cool down
  expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

This evening into Tuesday...

An upper-level ripple will move over the area with its associated
weak frontal features. This front will likely set up in northern
Kansas providing an opportunity for spotty scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening into the overnight period. With southerly
flow at the surface, moisture transport persists with dewpoints in
the 60s and 70s. There is decent instability across the area, with
MUCAPE values generally greater than 1500 J/kg. Given the relatively
weak deep layer shear, the severe potential is lower. However,
strong gusty winds cannot be ruled out with DCAPE values up to 1500
J/kg. The main impacts with any storm that develops would be strong
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

For Tuesday, spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible again due
to the weakening frontal boundary as a ridge begins building in.
With 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE and relatively weak deep layer shear, a
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly in south-
central to southeast Kansas. The main impacts would be wind gusts up
to 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall, and subsevere hail. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday into Thursday...

As a ridge continues to build into the area on Wednesday, this will
lead to warm and dry conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. High
temperatures will continue to rise, reaching mid to upper 90s on
Thursday.

Thursday night into the weekend...

A cold front will start moving through Kansas Thursday night leading
to additional on-and-off storm chances. As this front moves in, it
is expected to stall near the KS/OK border, leading to additional on-
and-off storm chances through the weekend. Modest instability is
expected providing opportunity for a few strong thunderstorms. This
far out, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out but will have to
refine this forecast as this weekend gets closer. Weekend high
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout much of the forecast
period. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the region this afternoon into the evening. Withheld any
prevailing TSRA mention given the expected coverage and
confidence in impacts to the terminals continues to be low.
Winds will become light and variable after sunset with another
potential for storms expected late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Confidence is high enough for a PROB30 mention at SLN/RSL/GBD
but remains too low for mention at the remaining sites. Finally,
patchy fog is possible at all sites near dawn Tuesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...BRF