Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 092101
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

TONIGHT:
FOCUS INITIALLY IS ON CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHICH HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY. AIDED BY SHORTWAVE...THIS WILL LIKELY
TRACK CLOSE TO/EAST OF FORECAST AREA ON CURRENT TRAJECTORY. FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT IN EARNEST
03-06 UTC AND PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTH EAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FORECASTS... WITH NAM SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL...WHILE GFS ERODES
MOST MUCAPE VERY EARLY IN EVENT. INITIALLY THINKING GFS MAY BE
MORE CORRECT... BUT CONCEDE THAT NAM IS WITHIN REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAKLY COUPLED
500MB JET...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

THU:
AT 1200 UTC PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WANE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 14...WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST...BUT ANTICIPATING GOOD RECOVERY IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

FRI-SAT:
STIFF SOUTH WINDS RETURN FOR FRI-SAT. SOME TRIPLE DIGITS APPEAR
PROBABLE ON SAT BARRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT/THU...GIVEN A
BIT STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SMALL POPS IN CENTRAL KS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL ON SUN DESPITE BOUNDARY BEING
IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL KS. APPEARS BOTH SURFACE/850MB FLOW WILL
BE VERY LIGHT AND CONVERGENCE IS LACKING. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
WILL OCCUR EAST OF I-35 ON SUN NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON MON-TUE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE BOUNDARY/PRECIPITATION WILL BE BUT
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY ARRIVE
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

MWM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  89  73  96 /  60  40   0  10
HUTCHINSON      68  87  73  95 /  60  30   0  10
NEWTON          67  85  72  95 /  60  50   0  10
ELDORADO        67  85  72  95 /  60  50   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  89  73  96 /  50  50   0  10
RUSSELL         67  94  75  98 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  94  75  97 /  60  10   0  10
SALINA          67  86  74  96 /  60  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  87  73  95 /  60  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  87  73  97 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         66  86  72  96 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            66  86  72  96 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  86  72  96 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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