000
FXUS63 KICT 242103
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAYS MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF WIND WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
KTS BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WIND WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

KRC


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$