Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 162003
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Southerly breezes and mid level warm advection will continue across
most of the region late this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Increased moisture in the low layers, will lead to increasing low
clouds/stratus over SE KS late this evening, with moisture depth
actually increasing enough for at least some areas of fog and
possibly some patchy drizzle after midnight, especially for SE KS.
So plan on adding drizzle for areas east of the Turnpike. Would not
be surprised to see low clouds and patchy drizzle as far west as the
Wichita metro area by 12z Fri.

A shortwave in the northern plains will help push a cold front south
across most of the forecast area early on Fri. Short range model
solutions have been coming in faster with the progression of the
front, pushing it south across most of the forecast area during the
morning hours. Could see a  few showers develop along, or over the
top of the front as it runs into better moisture across SE KS. Not
alot of elevated instability, so will just mention showers, as the
front pushes south into OK by Fri afternoon. The better storm
chances will stay south-southeast of the forecast area by Fri
afternoon.

Still expect mild conditions on Fri, even with the early frontal
passage, with max temps tempered some by the north winds and weak
cold advection.  Drier air pushing south will scour out most of the
low level moisture/drizzle/fog from SE KS by Fri afternoon as well.

Do not expect much of the cool down with the frontal passage, for
the weekend, as the front washes out over the Red River, with
southerly winds returning for most of the weekend.  Mid level upper
ridging and nice downslope flow will lead to max temps again
climbing well above normal with Sunday expected to be the warmest
day. As the warm advection increases, low level moisture will also
slowly increase, but a fairly strong elevated mixed layer will keep
any kind of shower/storm chances from developing on Sunday
afternoon, with lack of any boundary around.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Another shortwave in the northern plains will push another cold
front south across the forecast area on Mon.  Most of the mid-upper
dynamics will remain well north of the area as this front drops
south, so think most of the precip along the front will stay to the
northeast of the area.  The main result of the cold front will be to
push temps back towards seasonal norms for the middle of next week.

Not expecting this front to sag very far south either, as mid to
upper flow begins to shift more to the southwest ahead of a more
significant system expected to move into the west coast by the
middle of the week.  As this system begins to pull into srn Rockies,
moisture return is expected to increase across the plains for Wed-
Thu. This will lead to a fairly decent shot of  showers and storms
for the forecast area for Wed-Thu. This will be first widespread
shower chance that most locations have seen in almost 3 weeks!

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Lee trough and surface pressure gradient will keep southerly winds
gusting to 25-30 knots this afternoon across eastern Kansas. South
winds will drop off except in the far southeast this
evening/overnight ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
Marginal Low-level wind shear appears possible in south-
central/southeast Kansas late this evening in association with a
south-southwesterly low-level jet and low-level temperature
inversion. Increased boundary layer moisture, diminishing surface
winds just immediately ahead of the approaching cold front, should
result in areas of fog developing overnight into early Friday
morning in south-central KS/Flint Hills. Drizzle may affect areas
east of the Kansas Turnpike (CNU terminal) where low-level
moisture depth appears more supportive. Therefore, have an MVFR
to IFR transition overnight into Friday morning at the ICT and CNU
terminals with some hint at this possibly affecting the HUT site.
Winds will shift to the north behind the front late tonight in
central KS, and Friday morning in south-central/southeast KS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Fire danger concerns will remain elevated during the afternoon hours
from Fri through Mon with rising temperatures and gusty afternoon
winds. A frontal passage on Friday will shift winds from the south
to the northeast. The most critical day appears to be Sunday when
very high/possibly some pockets of extreme fire danger develop with
gusty southwest winds of 25 mph and high temperatures in the low to
mid 80s.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    54  70  41  70 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      53  69  39  69 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          53  68  39  68 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        54  69  41  69 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   54  72  42  72 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         43  68  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      44  69  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          51  69  38  70 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       53  69  37  69 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     52  72  41  70 /  20  30  10   0
Chanute         52  71  39  68 /  20  30   0   0
Iola            52  70  39  67 /  20  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    52  71  40  69 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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