Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280850
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY:
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
KS/GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PRIMARY
MECHANISM FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING IS
RATHER WEAK FOR THE MODEST CAPPING...SO ANTICIPATING RATHER
SPARCE COVERAGE...PRIMARY IN THE VICINITY OF FLINT HILLS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY TODAY WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...BUT SOME BREAKS/GOOD MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT:
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
UPPER WAVE SLOWING...ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS.

SAT-SUN:
FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON WHERE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. SOME SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP CLOUDS AND EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT. WHILE POSSIBLE...
GIVEN GOING DRY FORECAST AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER MODEL CHANGES...
OPTED TO KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SAT BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED FOR SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS. TRIVIAL MODEL QPF RESULTED SOME
LOW POPS IN INITIALIZATION GRIDS...BUT PROBABILITY/PREDICTABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE...SO THESE WERE NIXED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST...WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL STILL BE VERY SLOW TO FULLY PUSH
OUT BY OF THE AREA...ONLY REACHING KSLN BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST. MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  67  88  65 /  30  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      90  64  87  62 /  20  10   0   0
NEWTON          88  64  86  63 /  30  20   0   0
ELDORADO        87  64  86  64 /  40  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  67  88  66 /  40  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  61  88  60 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      89  62  89  60 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          89  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       90  63  87  62 /  20  20   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  67  86  65 /  20  20  10  10
CHANUTE         85  66  85  63 /  30  30  10  10
IOLA            84  65  84  63 /  30  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  86  64 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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