Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE CONVECTION MODE/TRENDS AND MAGNITUDE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE THE
RAP SHOWS DECENT ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE THE VEERING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH DAWN. SO WILL
KEEP MODEST CHANCES ACROSS THIS AREA THIS BEFORE WANING INTO MIDDAY AS
IT APPROACHES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO
THE SHARPENING DRY-LINE FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE I-135 CORRIDOR. INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 45-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CONVERGENCE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WHICH COULD EVOLVE
EASTWARD INTO THE FLINT HILLS BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING.
THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS
DEPICTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS
ON MONDAY...THOUGH SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT AND SOME CAPPING CONCERNS
WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO SLIGHT. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
LATER MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM EARLIER
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF MAY EJECT A BIT
QUICKER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS MAY COMPLIMENT
TIMING OF MORE OPTIMAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NEAR PEAK
HEATING...WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS SHOWS AROUND 4000
J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE WARM FRONT NOW LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE DARK...WITH SURFACE DRY-LINE AND TRIPLE POINT JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING BULK SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION IN VICINITY OF
THE DRY-LINE...THE OVERALL SHEARING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO SOMETHING MORE QUASI-LINEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTTOM-LINE...THE EJECTING NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROF STILL LOOKS
TO SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO RETURN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TRACK OF
THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF YIELD SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER THIS WILL BE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...OR POSSIBLY BOTH
DAYS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CURRENTLY IS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUSTAINED 20-26KT RANGE WITH FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING UP
TO 38KT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 23-00UTC.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION 19-20 UTC...GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID70-LOW80 RANGE. MESOSCALE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DEVELOPING
STORMS EAST OF KRSL AND KGBD...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME
INCONSISTENCY IN SHORT TERM...SO LEAVING THREAT IN PLACE FOR NOW.
FOCUS FOR STORMS MOVES EAST AND LIKELY WILL AFFECT KHUT...KICT AND
KSLN 21-01UTC TIMEFRAME...WITH STORMS NOT AFFECTING KCNU UNTIL AFT
01UTC. LIKELY WILL HAVE TO FINE-TUNE ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

THREAT OF STORMS WILL END FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 06UTC. NEXT
AVIATION CONCERN EVOLVES 07-09 UTC WITH MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO
IFR BY 11-13 UTC FOR KICT AND KCNU. OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT KHUT AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

DESPITE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE FLINT HILLS...THE RECENT GREEN-UP AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  59  80  63 /  30  40  10  20
HUTCHINSON      81  55  79  58 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          81  57  79  60 /  30  50  10  20
ELDORADO        80  58  79  62 /  30  50  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  60  79  65 /  20  30  20  20
RUSSELL         81  49  77  53 /  20  20   0  20
GREAT BEND      81  50  78  54 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA          82  55  79  56 /  50  50  10  20
MCPHERSON       81  55  79  57 /  40  40  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     79  61  79  65 /  10  30  20  20
CHANUTE         79  60  78  64 /  10  30  20  20
IOLA            79  59  77  63 /  10  40  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    79  60  78  65 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-068>071-
083-092>094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...SMF
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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