Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232355
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 133 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A vigorous trough over the Rockies will emerge over the Central
Plains of Nebraska tonight. Strong forcing for ascent will spread
downstream across Kansas where a few strong to severe storms may
develop across portions of Central KS early this evening as an area
of low pressure translates northeast across the area. A cold front
will follow, spreading south and east across the forecast area
tonight with breezy northwest winds in it`s wake. Low level cold air
advection and widespread stratocumulus will keep temperatures
below normal on Friday with some locations across central KS
struggling to climb out of the 30s while locations near the OK
state line see afternoon highs near 50.

Sat-Sun...An area of high pressure at the sfc is progged to sprawl
across the southern and central plains states on Sat with slowly
moderating temperatures and light winds. Highs are expected to top
out in the upper 40s for most locations. Southerly winds will return
on Sunday ahead of another progressive shortwave trough moving into
the Rockies. This will allow temperatures to rise into the 50s or
near normal for late Feb. Maintained low pops ahead of this
progressive storm system. We may see a brief mix as colder air
filters into the area Sunday night before precipitation ends from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A progressive mid/upper flow will bring a series of shortwave
troughs over the region through early next week with multiple
frontal passages/wind shifts. Tuesday may be the warmest day of the
week with highs in the 60s. More seasonable air is anticipated as we
move through the remainder of the week with highs mostly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

At issuance, a stg S/SE-movg cdfnt xtnd`d fm Cntrl MO, thru Cntrl
KS btwn KMPR & KHUT, to the OK Panhandle. The S/SE-movg cdfnt shud
arrive KICT ~03Z & KCNU ~05Z at which times SE winds 7-13kts would
quickly shift to the N/NW & incr csdrbly to ~25kts sustained w/
gusts ~30kts. (As is ocrg attm acrs Nrn KS.) Post-cdfntl stratocu
fm 2,000-2,500ft wl lwr to ~1,500ft at most terminals this eve w/
such cigs reaching KCNU ~06Z. MVFR cigs lkly in all areas thru Fri
Aftn w/ Cntrl KS improving to VFR twd the end of the 24/00Z TAF pd.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Breezy northwest winds will arrive across the area on Friday in
the wake of a cold front but minimum relative humidities will
remain above 40 percent keeping the fire danger in the high to
very high range on Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    37  44  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      35  41  22  46 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          36  40  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        37  43  23  45 /   0  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   38  47  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         31  35  18  45 /  50  20   0   0
Great Bend      32  37  18  45 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          34  38  21  46 /  40  20  10   0
McPherson       35  40  21  45 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     44  51  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         42  47  24  46 /   0  10   0   0
Iola            42  47  24  46 /   0  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    43  49  24  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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