Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221214
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
614 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A vigorous winter storm will continue to make progress across the
forecast area early today, with wraparound snow in the comma head
of the system increasing across northern and central KS as the
upper low makes its way east across central KS. Trowal axis
wrapping from Neb back SW into north central KS will enhance
snowfall rates for areas just to the NW of the forecast area. Some
concern about a little higher snow totals along Interstate 70 for
the morning hours, as the trowal axis with increased lift remains
situated over north central KS for a good portion of the morning
hours, which may increase snow totals some. Latest hiRes model
solutions seems to support snow totals a little higher but not
enough to change the gist of the going forecast. But think some
areas north of I-70 may see snow totals in the 2 to 3 inch range.
Further to the south along and north of highway 56, think snow
totals around an inch still look reasonable. After looking at some
of the snow totals off the hi-rez solutions, thought about adding
McPherson and rice co`s to the advisory but will hold off for
now. The only thing that gives me pause is the main upper low is
progged to go right over this area later this morning, which may
locally enhance snow totals. For now think the forecast is on
track.

As the upper low shifts into central KS, a tight pressure gradient
with strong N-NW winds gusting to 40 mph will develop across most of
central and south central KS.  The combination of the snow and gusty
winds will lead to very hazardous travel conditions even with the
lighter snow amounts. Current winter weather advisory will hit the
reduced visibilities hard.  Think a wind advisory south of the
snowfall area looks fine, given the strong gradient winds expected
even across south central KS.

Most of the warm advection showers located ahead of the dry line
have shifted east into MO early today, with main cold front pushing
east across the area this morning.  Think most of south central and
southeast KS may see a brief changeover to snow on the southern end
of the comma head late this afternoon, as it rotates east and slowly
lifts to the northeast by this afternoon.  Not expecting much precip
south of highway 50.

Pressure gradient should relax this evening and overnight as the
storm system rapidly pulls to the NE of the area.  Upper ridge will
build across the Rockies for Tue/Wed.  Not expecting much of a cool
down behind todays departing system, as downslope W-NW flow will
lead to seasonal temps both days.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A warming trend will return to the region for Thu and Fri as the
ridge over the Rockies flattens out with zonal flow across most of
the plains.  This will lead to southerly surface flow and max temps
warmer well above normal.

A quick hitting system looks to move across the northern plains for
Fri into Fri night.  Due to quick nature of the system, low level
moisture will be slow return to the area as the system approaches,
with areas east of the Flint Hills having a small chance of rain or
rain changing to snow for Fri night.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A rain/snow mix, eventually changing over to all light snow, will
spread east/southeast across the area this morning into the early
afternoon, impacting all sites except CNU. The greatest potential
for light snow accumulations will be at GBD-RSL-SLN. Additionally,
very strong and gusty northwest winds will spread southeast across
the entire area today...with gusts 40+ kts for many locations.
MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail areawide, with the worst
conditions within light snow bands. Snow will exit to the east
early to mid-afternoon, with skies clearing by late afternoon and
early evening. Winds will gradually slacken this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Very high grassland fire danger is expected across most of
south central KS today with strong gusty N-NW winds and cured
grasses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  25  48  24 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      41  23  46  22 /  50   0   0   0
Newton          39  23  45  23 /  50  10   0   0
ElDorado        41  25  46  24 /  40  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  25  49  25 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         39  21  44  19 /  80   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  21  45  20 /  70   0   0   0
Salina          40  23  44  22 /  80  10   0   0
McPherson       40  22  45  21 /  70  10   0   0
Coffeyville     45  28  49  25 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         42  26  46  25 /  30  10   0   0
Iola            41  26  45  25 /  30  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    44  27  48  25 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ050>053-067>069-
082-083-091>093.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ032-
033-047>049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...Kleinsasser
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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