Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271946
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Water vapor imagery shows strong jet energy nosing into the
central/southern Rockies with additional shortwave energy lifting
over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, low pressure is
strengthening over southeast CO/northeast NM with ridging through
the Mississippi Valley.

Strong shortwave energy will continue to stream out of the
northern intermountain and into the central/southern Plains
tonight, resulting in strong mid level theta-e advection lifting
north. So should see some showers and iso thunder across much of
the area but should quickly lift north, and after midnight,
should mostly be affecting northern KS. Fairly pleasant conditions
are setting up for Fri across most of the area, with the warm
front generally along the KS/Nebraska border, leaving the forecast
area in the capped warm sector. So, expecting some sunshine and
near normal temps during the day Fri.

More robust piece of energy is expected to approach the southern
high Plains Fri night and track across northern TX/OK Sat into Sat
night. As this occurs, very strong 850-700mb moisture transport
is expected to overspread OK, se KS and the Ozark Region with an
extremely moist airmass in place. Models have been consistent in
advertising PW in the 1.5-2" range which is around 200% of normal
for this time of year. The highest confidence in flooding still
remains from eastern OK into northern AR and into southern MO. In
these locations we could be looking at 6+ inches of rainfall from
Fri night through Sat night. Some of these higher totals may clip
a few of our far se KS counties, so threw Labette and Neosho into
a flood watch.

Over the remainder of the forecast area, we should be looking at
widespread 1-2.5 inch rainfall amounts. While this may not result
in flash flooding, it may send a handful of rivers into minor
flood late this weekend. On the backside of this system, not out
of the question we may see some snow mix-in with the rain late Sat
night and again late Sun night across central KS. At this time it
looks like the lowest 2,000ft should remain warm enough to limit
accumulation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

By 12z Mon, the upper low will be lifting over the mid Mississippi
Valley with the wrap around precip exiting northeast KS. We look
to remain in a cool progressive pattern with yet another piece of
energy diving south across the central Rockies Tue night and into
the high Plains Wed. This feature may bring some rainfall chances
to southern KS but the better chances look to be south. However,
confidence is high that this feature will keep the trend of below
normal temps going.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

VFR conditions will dominate the region to start the afternoon but
an approaching low pressure system will cause the clouds to
increase and conditions to deteriorate this afternoon and evening.
MVFR conditions and some IFR conditions are expected across all
terminals at some point this evening and overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms will be likely in all areas as well with RSL, GBD,
SLN and CNU getting the worst of the activity. IFR conditions are
expected here during the overnight hours. ICT and HUT will likely
see MVFR conditions with scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm. The convective activity will come to and end after
day break with some decent clearing by mid morning and a return of
VFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  49  72  46 /  10  40  10  70
Hutchinson      61  47  70  43 /  20  40  10  80
Newton          61  48  71  43 /  20  50  10  70
ElDorado        62  49  72  46 /  10  50  10  70
Winfield-KWLD   63  50  74  49 /  10  40  10  80
Russell         60  44  64  39 /  50  70  20  80
Great Bend      61  44  66  40 /  50  60  10  80
Salina          60  48  66  43 /  30  80  10  70
McPherson       60  48  69  43 /  20  50  10  70
Coffeyville     65  53  76  55 /  10  40  10  80
Chanute         62  51  72  51 /  10  60  10  80
Iola            62  51  71  50 /  10  70  10  80
Parsons-KPPF    64  52  74  54 /  10  50  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
KSZ096-100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ELM



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