Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 170548
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Tonight:
One last lobe of moisture/energy in departing wave will rotate
through Central KS early this evening. Some light rain/freezing
rain and/or drizzle/freezing drizzle will be possible until
mid evening. Accumulutions are not expected to be little more
that a trace.

Tuesday-Thursday:
Busy period with a number of waves rotating through the flow with
one on Wednesday and another Thursday evening. Will not set up a
good fetch of moisture, but keep small chance in extreme Southeast
KS Thursday night. A bit concerned that the center of the
circulation will track somewhere across the northern half of the
forecast area Thursday night, and would squeeze out some
precipitation in the vicinity of the upper low. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The steady diet of waves continues with one passing through
Friday night and a closed upper low on Saturday night-Sunday. A
brief rain/snow mix is possible in Central KS early Saturday
morning with the first wave. The latter of the two waves is much
stronger and will result in a wound up surface low that models
suggest will clip Southeast KS as it moves northeast. Temperatures
will easily be above freezing ahead of the low, but a rain/snow
mix will spread as far southeast as the Beaumont spine of the
Flint Hills around daybreak Sunday. Temperatures warm during the
day so a quick change back to rain is anticipated on Sunday.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Main Aviation Hazard: IFR/MVFR stratus.

MVFR/IFR stratus shield covering much of central/eastern Kansas
will slowly erode from northwest to southeast overnight into
Tuesday, via drier low-level air advection. As low-level cyclonic
curvature (surface-850 mb) gradually relaxes overnight, patchy
light drizzle will also come to an end in south-central KS/Flint
Hills.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  46  29  52 /  10   0   0  10
Hutchinson      30  44  26  51 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          31  44  28  51 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        33  45  28  52 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   33  46  29  53 /  10   0   0  10
Russell         28  41  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      28  40  25  49 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          30  42  25  51 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       29  43  26  50 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     36  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         35  47  29  52 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            35  46  28  52 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    35  48  30  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC


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