000
FXUS63 KICT 101741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW LEADS TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. CERTAINLY SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN A MONTH.

TUE-TUE NIGHT: CURRENT SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE WA COAST WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...ON TUE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
TUE. EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE...AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING STEADY
OR FALLING TEMPERATURES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT...WITH MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SUGGESTING SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. WILL NOT ISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY
JUST YET...BUT CERTAINLY THINK ONE WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER
ISSUANCE. COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO POST FRONTAL SATURATION AND
850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING IN THE MID LAYERS FOR LATE TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. THIS POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE STRONGEST ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SE KS...SO WILL
KEEP A CHANCE POP GOING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WITH
THIS IN MIND. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN...BUT AS THE MID LEVELS
COOL...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONT AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PACIFIC IN NATURE.

WED: WILL CERTAINLY NOT SEE THE DEGREE OF COOL DOWN THAT WE HAVE
PREVIOUSLY WITNESSED DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMALS FOR WED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE BRISK NORTH WINDS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE GFS DROPPING THIS SYSTEM STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO TX. WILL GO WITH A
CONSENSUS AND KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR NOW...AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IT
STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.  THERMAL PROFILES SEEM WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT VARIABLE ALONG A SURFACE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY STRATOCU MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT KCNU. THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE FELT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST VALID EXPIRATION INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RACES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION...HOWEVER
EXTREME FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 &
INTERSTATE 135.  GIVEN THE EXTREME VALUES EXPECTED ON TUE..COULD SEE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BEING NEEDED...BUT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  44  66  32 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  42  61  29 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          75  44  63  30 /   0   0  10  30
ELDORADO        74  45  67  32 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  46  76  33 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         78  39  54  27 /   0   0  30  30
GREAT BEND      78  40  57  28 /   0   0  20  30
SALINA          76  41  59  30 /   0   0  20  30
MCPHERSON       76  42  60  29 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     73  47  79  34 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         73  46  77  33 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            73  45  75  33 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    73  46  78  33 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$