Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 260821
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Will continue with areas of fog mention through mid morning this
morning, across central and south-central Kansas. The fog may
become dense in the southwestern counties of our forecast area,
westward into western Kansas, near and west of the back edge of
the low stratus deck.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicated a robust shortwave trough over
Colorado/New Mexico early this morning. This progressive upper
trough will move eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma this afternoon and
tonight, reaching Missouri/Arkansas by late Monday morning. The short
range model guidance suite continues to keep the warm sector just
south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border, as the upper trough passes
through the region. A developing 850 mb low-level jet will
transport Gulf moisture (along Texas coastal plain early this am)
northward today into tonight into the narrow warm sector and north
of the warm front. Combined with strong ascent and mid-level
cooling from the upper trough, we expect scattered
showers/thunderstorms to develop over central/south-central Kansas
this afternoon, with coverage becoming numerous tonight. A steep
plume of mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/Km) just ahead of upper
trough, will allow for elevated CAPE of 500 to 1000 j/kg with
40-45 kts of effective bulk shear across southern Kansas this
afternoon/evening. This will support a few strong to marginally
severe storms, with hail of nickel to half dollar size as the
main threat. Trimmed highs this afternoon about 3-7 degrees,
given extensive cloud cover and the warm front remaining to the
south.

A few rain showers may linger in the far east Monday morning until
the system departs to the east. The next upper trough is progged to
dig into the southwest Monday into Tuesday. Near seasonal
temperatures are expected both Monday and Tuesday with lack of
return southerly flow. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the High Plains Tuesday, spreading eastward across the forecast area
Tuesday night ahead of the approaching upper trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The upper trough in the southwest is progged to form into a
slow-moving closed low as it tracks slowly east across the
Central/Southern Plains Wednesday through Thursday night. Although
most medium range model guidance keep the warm sector just south
of Kansas, strong 850 moisture transport and elevated instability
is progged into the forecast area, as this slow moving upper low
moves through. The strength of the upper trough and moisture
transport into the system suggest periods of widespread convective
rainfall Wednesday into Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main aviation issues remain fog and low clouds through Sun
morning.

MVFR cigs with pockets of IFR clouds have remained planted over
areas along and east of I-135 this evening. Some of this has
actually started to work back to the west. These cigs are expected
to hold strong overnight and may start to lower some, with
widespread IFR levels a good bet by 09z. Still feel the best fog
potential will be along our western flank, due to better upslope
flow along with slightly higher elevation. However, with stratus
build down still a possibility, can`t rule out some lower
visibilities over all areas after 09z. By 15z Sun, we should
start to see things improve to above IFR levels. Chances for
scattered showers and storms will increase late Sun afternoon into
the evening hours as our next fast moving wave moves across the
southern Plains. Best chances for severe storms look to be south
into Oklahoma.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Three separate weather systems have the potential to produce
widespread rainfall across the forecast area over the next 7 day
period. Consequently, grassland fire danger is not expected to be
elevated during this period, but instead remain mostly low to
moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  47  65  44 /  50  70  10   0
Hutchinson      59  44  64  42 /  40  70  10   0
Newton          59  45  61  42 /  40  70  10   0
ElDorado        61  47  62  43 /  40  80  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  49  65  44 /  40  70  10   0
Russell         58  40  64  41 /  50  60   0   0
Great Bend      58  41  65  42 /  60  70  10   0
Salina          59  44  64  41 /  40  70  10   0
McPherson       59  44  63  41 /  40  70  10   0
Coffeyville     68  52  64  44 /  20  80  30   0
Chanute         62  50  62  44 /  10  90  30   0
Iola            62  50  62  44 /  10  90  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    66  51  63  44 /  20  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JMC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.