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000
FXUS61 KBUF 142136
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.  SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UNSETTLED
PATTERN...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING IN WESTERN NY AND TOWARD NOON OR
THE AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A DRY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WITH NW FLOW OVERHEAD.  AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
JUST N OF MN WITH A PAIR OF FRONTS TO ITS SOUTH.  CLOSER TO
HOME...SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE...WHILE A MID LEVEL DECK CONTINUES TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO PROVENCE WITH SOME REPORTS OF VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. KERI RECEIVED .06 UNDER A LONG THIN BAND. THIS BAND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK...WITH MOST AREAS
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY OR SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT LIFTS ACROSS
THIS EVENING. WITH THE BUFFALO RADAR BACK UP...IT APPEARS THE
SHOWERS WILL REACH WESTERN THIRD OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER.

LATER TONIGHT A WARM FRONT TIED TO THE MN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT...CREATING A
STRONG INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS.  HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES
THROUGH 12Z /SSEO/ INDICATE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN
NY...BUT INDIVIDUAL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT DO NOT INDICATE
ANY CONVECTION OVERHEAD...PROBABLY DUE STABLE AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
STRONG INVERSION.  WILL DOWNPLAY MODELED PRECIPITATION OUTPUT AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPRINKLES...ONLY IN WESTERN NY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS.  THIS PUTS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
BRIEFLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE STRONG INVERSION CONTINUES TO RULE
OUT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...MEANING THAT STORMS WILL HAVE TO
BE ONGOING AND WELL MAINTAINED UPSTREAM AS THEY CROSS MI AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS THEY WILL BE ELEVATED.  TIMING FOR ANY
CONVECTION...AND RAIN IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NY...AND LATER...MID DAY OR
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY.  HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE THREAT.

CURRENTLY ONLY SEEING MEAGER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MN LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WI/MN WITH LATE DAY HEATING.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A
POTENTIAL INDICATOR FOR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...AS UPSTREAM DATA IN
THIS AREA IS OFTEN A GOOD INDICATION OF WEATHER 24HRS LATER
DOWNSTREAM /IE IN UPSTATE NY/.  IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS
WEAK...CONFIDENCE FOR A NEGLIGIBLE/NON EVENT IN NY WILL INCREASE.
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR DETERRENT.  IN ADDITION...THE TIMING FOR A
DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE
RIGHT...WITH A STRONGER INVERSION DURING THE MORNING LOWERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IN SPITE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT...WITH 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
60S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MARKING THE RETURN TO SPRING AFTER OUR
RECENT COLD SPELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIR WEATHER PERIOD WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF DAYTIME SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOST LOWS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO COULD FLIRT WITH SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN LURKING SOUTH
OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF HINTING AT SOME INCREASED BLOCKING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE OR KEEP THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA...ALLOWING THE HIGH TO REMAIN IN CONTROL...POSSIBLY EVEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL SUGGEST SOME LIMITED PROBABILITIES
BY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN POTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. EVEN MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERAL OF THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL HELP DRAW UP AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A CHANCE AT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IT WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE 70S AS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.  LOOK FOR LOWERING MID LEVEL CIGS AND INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD 12Z IN WESTERN NY...SEVERAL HOURS LATER IN
CENTRAL NY.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL PICKUP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES
THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE COLD
FRONT.  THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION AS A STABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE BELOW THE JET FOR A TIME
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS
ITS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE MIXED TOGETHER WITH
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ERIE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PLAY OUT OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED W-NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BUFFALO RADAR IS BACK IN OPERATION. BASE RADAR PRODUCTS SUCH
AS REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY DATA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORMAL.
SOME CALIBRATIONS WERE MADE WHICH MAY IMPACT SOME DUAL POL
PRODUCTS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE ASSESSED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND ADJUSTED FURTHER IF NEED BE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
EQUIPMENT...APFFEL/WCH