Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210312
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1112 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A COOL AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE RIGHT REAR JET
QUADRANT WILL QUICKLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS
SOME PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
OHIO...BUT UPSTREAM OBS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS IS MOSTLY VIRGA.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD STAY DRY WITH JUST MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE BENEFICIAL SINCE IT WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN
MOST AREAS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND (NAM/RGEM/HRRR) MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FROM SW-NE WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR LONGEST IN LEWIS COUNTY. THERE IS A FROST ADVISORY FOR LEWIS
COUNTY AND THIS STILL SEEMS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST HEDGES ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUCH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. WE SHOULD STILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 60S...WITH MID 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND GENESEE/FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THETA-E POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE PART EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SLIDE THROUGH DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK LATER FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY...RETURNING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE COLDEST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK WITHIN THE HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BROAD SURFACE WHICH HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST SUNDAY WHILE A STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH A SURFACE WARM FORECAST
PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THINK THAT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE
BETTER IDEA JUST BASED ON STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY SNEAKING INTO WESTERN AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED/WET
WEEK WILL BEGIN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START OFF AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEAVES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL MAINLY BE AOA 10K
FT...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW). CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON THURSDAY WITH THE EXIT OF A JET
STREAK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FURTHER THIS EVENING WITH NO MARINE
HEADLINES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN WINDS AND WAVES MAY NEAR
SCA ON THE LAKES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



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