Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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248
FXUS63 KMQT 081001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF



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