Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221145 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FALLING AS LIGHT RAIN...WITH
WARM ADVECTION PUSH IN SOUTHEAST SD EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. MOISTURE OUT WEST RIVER ALSO OVER
AN AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING.
MAIN ISSUE IS IN BETWEEN WHERE SOME RADIATION COOLING SENT
READINGS INTO THE 20S EARLIER...AND WITH LIGHT QPF SEEING SOME
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY BETWEEN PIERRE...HIGHMORE...UP TO GETTYSBURG.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE SO EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS THROUGH THE
EARLY AM AND WENT WITH AN SPS. GUIDANCE COOLS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OFF RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...I SUSPECT A TAD TOO
QUICKLY...FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
UNTIL TROWAL FEATURE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED TONIGHT. GREATEST
MODEL OUTPUT FOR SNOW TOTALS ARE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL COUNTIES AND
NUDGE UP INTO WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ELECTED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE ALSO TRENDED
DOWN AND LATER INTO TUESDAY SO EXPECTED LESS IMPACT WITH BLOWING
SNOW THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM CENTER AROUND PCPN CHANCES. EARLY
IN THE PERIOD A S/W RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER MORE ENERGY COMING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE VERY EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND....WITH A SWATH OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE LOOK
TO START OFF ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEN TREND
TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AT MOST
TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH BRIEF BREAKOUTS TO VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR. INCREASING SNOW IS EXPECTED TNT FOR
KMBG/KPIR AND PERHAPS KABR/KATY. VSBYS DUE TO SNOWFALL AND BLOWING
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORSE TONIGHT AT KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
     6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-
     POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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