Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162314 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
514 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Temperatures have warmed into the 20s today, with even MBG reaching
the 20-degree mark. Portions of the eastern CWA have warmed into the
upper 20s, with dewpoints remaining fairly high as well. Could
therefore see some fog developing later tonight over parts of the
eastern CWA. Several models indicate the potential from the James
valley into the Watertown area, and over towards Wheaton. Have
inserted this into the forecast for the overnight period as winds
stay fairly light also. Basically ran with a CONSSHORT approach
which gave some fog from ABR down through ATY, while leaving
downslope areas of the eastern CWA fog-free. Can see this being
valid as there could be a slight/very weak downslope wind component
tonight keeping winds up just a touch.

Otherwise, the short term is pretty quiet with dry conditions
expected throughout. Pretty decent downslope setup develops Tuesday
night with the back edge of a 30-knot 925mb southwesterly jet
sagging southwest into the Coteau region. Although, this jet speed
needs to be a bit stronger to get real excited. Have increased winds
in the typical areas and also added a blowing snow mention.

Focus will then turn to Wednesday as the mild air mass finally makes
it into the CWA. Temperature forecast is once again a challenge over
the snow field - trying to even out the balance between the mild air
mass and the cold snow cover. Nonetheless, still expecting 30s for
highs over most of the CWA on Wednesday, with 40s likely along and
south of I-90 where there is less snow. Of course, the big question
is just how far into the 30s do some of these deeper snow-covered
areas reach?

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The long term looks to be above normal for temperatures across the
region with very weak upper level flow for this time of year. The
models show a large upper level low pressure area over the central
plains on Thursday. This low pressure area then slowly lifts
northeast and then north across the northern plains into the weekend
while another upper trough digs in behind and also lifts north
across our region. These two systems will be weak but will bring low
clouds along with chances of rain and snow with them from Friday
night into Sunday. Not much precipitation is expected with these
systems. Otherwise, temperatures through the period are expected to
be above normal in the 30s. Fog may become a problem at
night/morning hours with snow melt during the day along with light


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Tuesday.
Only exception may be some fog overnight from around KABR to KATY.
There is some uncertainty on areal coverage, but it is a
possibility at these two terminals.




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