Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220825
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
325 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Narrow band of moderate intensity snow moving across the
Pierre/Chamberlain areas will continue east/northeast through the
morning into the afternoon. There is a second band set back by about
100 miles, but thus far CAMs have failed to catch onto this feature.
Either way, moisture moving across the area should be minimal with
less than an inch accumulation.

Milder air will move in behind this warm front today. Additionally,
a 20mb gradient will exist across the state today, with pressure
falls of 7 to 9mb. The result will be a south winds close to
advisory criteria. Fire danger will be elevated with these winds,
despite temperatures only in the 50-60F degree range for highs.

Focus shifts to precipitation Thursday/Friday. General trends have
been to adjust the storm track southwards. We will still see a vort
eject out ahead of the main upper low, with favorable placement of
the right entrance region of a 100kt jet streak. NAM BUFKIT profiles
suggest steep lapse rates above the warm layer - possibly elevated
convection. Otherwise dry/cool northerly flow develops for Friday -
and the best chance for precipitation shifts to along and south of
the CWA border.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

When the period opens Friday night, a large upper low circulation is
meandering around over the center of the CONUS, but this cwa should
be dry, with any lingering precipitation chances over the far
southeastern forecast zones dwindling rapidly. Compared to
yesterday, model qpf output is notably less over this cwa late in
the period despite a similar upper level flow pattern evolution from
a general lack of upper level steering winds to more of a
southwesterly flow. What does seem to end up resulting in these
types of patterns is late fog formation. Will have to keep that
under consideration heading into this weekend. Not much change in
the low level thermal progs over the weekend and into early next
week. Ensemble and deterministic low level thermal progs generally
supporting temperatures near to as much as one standard deviation
above climo normal for late March.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Wednesday. Scattered light snow showers are possible across
the far southern CWA overnight. Look for southeasterly winds to
increase into the 20 to 35 knot range Wednesday morning and continue
into the evening hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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