Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 172028
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
228 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOW STRATUS. KABR WILL SEE SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 800 FT/AGL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MOST TERMINALS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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