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000
FXUS63 KABR 250926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
426 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW LINGERING STORMS THIS AM. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND
SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. GUIDANCE PROFILES ARE A TAD MORE STABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. H85 DEWPOINTS FALL TO AROUND +/- 1C WEST
OF THE JAMES SO WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DRY OUT BY LATE MORNING AS
WELL.

SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY...MIXED DOWN ON THE ORDER OF 20G30S THANKS
TO WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION TO ENHANCED MIXING. COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS ALL AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE US. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. AS A RESULT...WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WITH COOLER CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES EARLY ON WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
ALSO...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER DIFFICULT CONVECTIVE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH STORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR...ATY AND MBG.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN