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000
FXUS63 KABR 091739 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING NICELY WITH MOST OF THE REGION REPORTING MID 30S TO MID
40S. THE HOURLY TREND SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT WELL...SO DID NOT
ADJUST TODAYS HIGHS...BUT IF ANYTHING TEMPERATURES COULD RISE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MILD TEMPS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SD. TEMPS STILL IN
THE 20S FURTHER EAST. 925 MB TEMPS VERY IMPRESSIVE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. FAVORABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST MIXING WINDS AS WELL. IT
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DECK...WHICH MAY HAMPER TEMP CLIMBS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT
GIVEN THE 925 MB TEMPS ALONE AND MIXING WINDS...TEMPS WILL NOT
HAVE A PROBLEM RISING. COULD SEE 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WHICH WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS. ON MONDAY TEMPS
ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...SO EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE A TAD COOLER BUT STILL MILD NONETHELESS.

WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE STORM SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A BAND
OF MODERATE QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ON JUST
WHERE THIS SETS UP. 00Z EC ACTUALLY CAME IN A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...AND LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE FURTHEST NORTH MODELS WITH ITS
QPF SWATH OVER NORTHERN SD. GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE FURTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MODELS FLIP FLOP A FEW MORE TIMES AS IS
FREQUENTLY THE CASE WITH BANDED PRECIP EVENTS. THIS WILL BE A
DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THAT ONCE THE PRECIP INITIALLY MOVES IN...IT
WILL BE RAIN. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...SO ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES TO
SNOW IT COULD COME DOWN RATHER HEAVY. COULD POTENTIALLY BE A 3 TO
6 INCH TYPE EVENT...INITIAL THINKING. BUT AGAIN...JUST HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FIRST WILL BE KEY IN OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. PLAYING IT
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE RIGHT NOW WITH SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINITIVE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE US DURING THE LONG TERM
FEATURES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN ON
THE ABOVE NORMAL SIDE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ISSUE
THAT COMES INTO PLAY IS THE POSSIBLE NEW SNOW COVER AND DEPTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HIGHS COULD BE AFFECTED FOR BOTH DAYS. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS
MOVES THROUGH. SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING A COOLER DAY THAN
FORECASTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXCEPTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT KABR/KATY LATER
TNT. MELTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
LLM WHICH DOES SHOW UP TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS/TSECTS/PCPN PROGS. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG LATE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN