Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 031135 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
635 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAINLY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. AS THE MCS CONTINUES EAST...EXPECT A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE. THAT SAID...MODELS SUGGEST THE
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE SO THERE MAY BE
EXPANSION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
MOVES EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THIS HIGH WILL KEEP US DRY FOR MOST OF TODAY/TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. WE WILL SEE A SLOW MOVING 500MB WAVE LIFT OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US IN STABLE EASTERLY
FLOW...BUT MODELS DO GENERATE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEVADA EJECTS ENERGY INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC DRIER AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES. ON SAT/SAT NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN AND SFC FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY THE REGION
WILL DRY OUT AND THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUE.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
70S...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 OR ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHOWERS AND TSTORMS PERSIST SOUTH OF KATY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL STAY JUST OUT OF THE VICINITY OF
KATY BUT THEY COULD SEE SOME RAIN. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND IS ALREADY IMPACTING
KABR AND KMBG. KEPT THE STRATUS OUT OF KPIR FOR NOW BUT DO HAVE IT
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO KATY AND STICKING AROUND FOR THE MORNING
AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. BY 00Z ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



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