Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 020222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
HAD A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO WHEN TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED OUT OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT CONVECTION HAS ALSO FIZZLED
OUT...WITH JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS LEFT NOW OVER THE CWA.
OVERALL...TEMPS/WINDS APPEAR ON TRACK RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE SKIES CLEARING OFF SOON AS WELL.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP AND APPROACHING S/W...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT
SAID THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF STATE COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO
FIZZLE OUT AND HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THEM FROM THE TAFS...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY STORMS WITHIN 30 MILES OF A TERMINAL. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...SOME FORM OF LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.