Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280553 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1253 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

With a line of showers/isold storms along a weak convergence zone in
southern nd this evening moving southeast, increased rainfall
chances across our northern cwa through the evening. Updated

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

CAMS continue to support the forecast for isolated to scattered weak
diabatically driven convection, with NAM BUFKIT soundings suggesting
these will remain relatively high based at 8kft, though shallow
enough that it will be difficult to reach the hail growth region,
which will limit lightning generation. Bases are at/above the 0C
line, so there may be some sublimation processes out of falling
precipitation which could add to the gustiness of the convective

There is a more evident wave in northern North Dakota pivoting
around the upper circulation across central Canada, and this moves in
this evening, so some shower activity may linger past sunset.

Sunday and Monday will be similar to today, with cool mid level
temperatures and steep low level lapse rates. Mixed winds are
sustained around 20mph so again it will be breezy to windy.
Convection will again be shallow but will continue to mention
thunder, along with the potential for accelerated stronger winds
with the best cells Sunday. Temperatures will be a tad cooler Monday
with a much shallower unstable layer.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A deep upper trough with embedded shortwave activity will slowly
exit to the east on Tuesday. Weak ridging will build in by the end
of the work week, but it looks like there will still be a few ridge
riders adding to the energy of weak sfc low pressure to the south.

At the sfc, this means a mostly dry forecast with some slight chance
to low chance pops when instability increases in the afternoons and
evenings. Temperatures will climb under the ridge and top out near
80 Thursday through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

West-southwest winds continue turning to the northwest. By mid-
morning these northwest winds increase to 20 to 30 knots with
gusts to 35 knots. There will also be some mixing layer clouds
redeveloping later on Sunday with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing again by late afternoon. These may
affect the stations at or in the vicinity. It is expected to be
VFR through the TAF period.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Dorn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.