Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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339
FXUS63 KABR 211740 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1140 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Will be interesting to see how temperatures respond today with a
fresh coat of snow on the ground and the area still being under
the influence of a cold dome of high pressure at the surface. Did
shave just a degree or two off from previous high temperature
forecast for today. Also bumped up wind speeds just a bit across
the spine of the Coteau and in the downslope region. Skies today
will remain sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

High pressure centered over the state will gradually drift east
today with low level flow remaining westerly. While this would favor
mixing, recent snow cover and negligible low level warm advection
will limit any warmup. High pressure continues east overnight and
flow becomes southerly ahead of the next system. Profiles begin to
saturate to varying degrees across the area through the morning
hours but at this point there is negligible forcing aloft for
precipitation prior to 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

The recent long wave pattern looks to more or less remain the same
through the long term. Energy aloft will continue to dive south
along the west coast, thus keeping a western conus trof pretty much
in place. The energy then lifts out northeast across the plains. One
such system comes out on Thursday and Thursday night. The models
have been fairly consistent with this pv anomaly over the last
couple days worth of runs. So, relatively high pops look good. Pcpn
type should favor snow, but patchy freezing drizzle also looks
possible mainly before and after the main event has occurred. Snow
amounts up to 3 inches look possible based on accepted model blend
qpf values and forecast snow ratios. Heaviest snow likely to be over
northeast South Dakota and into west central Minnesota. Another
piece of energy ejects across the region on Saturday. This system
has been trending north in the last couple model runs, so the
increase in pops for Saturday look fine for now. Temperatures are
likely to be near, or a bit below normal for most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period. Only
exception may be late in the TAF forecast period (late morning
Thurs) when some MVFR CIGs and -SN will begin working into the
KATY region. Conditions are expected to deteriorate through
Thursday afternoon with lowering VSBY and CIGs in -SN/SN, which
will be reflected more in the 00Z TAF issuance this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT



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