Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 212046
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN
WYOMING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MU-CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY OF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM OVER AN INCH...TO UNDER A HALF INCH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PATTERN UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE RIDGE..ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING AT THE SFC DUE TO
THE SFC LOW. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR +20C ON SUNDAY
MORNING HIGHS AT THE SFC WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ON MONDAY...THOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE ALL LEANING TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND AVERAGE..IN THE 50S..WITH AND BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL ONLY DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KPIR/KMBG BEHIND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-
     MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.