Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 220558 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1258 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. WAA
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE WEST.

FIRE CONDITIONS MAY BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WAA MAY BRING MOISTURE IN MORE QUICKLY...SO
HAVE OPTED TO NO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

WILL SEE WAA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR
HIGHS BOTH DAYS. WILL SEE FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH STILL IN PLACE...WITH MAINLY 30S ACROSS THE CWA. 40S WILL
BE COMMON BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

INITIALLY WILL SEE UPPER LOW PIVOT ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA...ENHANCED
MIXING...AND LOW HUMIDITY. WITH H5 TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DOWN
TO -26C...DAYTIME MIXING MAY EXCEED 8KFT. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ANY CONVECTION ON TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE OVER TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...THOUGH BOTH
BRING A LOW OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL SAT-SUN-
MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS ON TUESDAY
...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH STRONG WAA ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.