Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241751 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TODAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF COLD AIR INDUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA TODAY...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THE COLD DRY AIRMASS POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT ASCENT IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE WHERE EXACTLY THIS AREA OF BEST FORCING SETS
UP...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR NOW IS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE KABR/KATY SOUNDINGS...BUT DO
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. THEREFORE...TRIED TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF POPS EASTWARD...HOWEVER MAY EVEN BE TOO GENEROUS
WITH POPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THIS
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY WRING
OUT ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A BAND
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR TAKE OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM TWENTY BELOW
TO THIRTY BELOW ZERO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS THIS WILL LIKELY PROMPT
ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA INTO SATURDAY. THESE SOUTH
WINDS WILL ONLY BE BRINGING BACK SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE
SOUTH. THUS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY WARMING
INTO THE 20S BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS THEN RETURN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
WITH 20S AND LOWER 30S ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN STILL LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CIGS FROM 2500 FT TO 3500 FT WILL AFFECT KMBG/KABR/KATY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE KPIR SEES HIGHER MID LEVEL CIGS. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO AND THROUGH MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. -SN/SN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES...WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM POSSIBLE AT KPIR AND
KMBG. CIGS WITHIN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MAY FALL TO BELOW
1000 FT. ALSO...A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA IS POSSIBLE AT KPIR THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SN OCCURS. TIMING OF THE -FZRA
POSSIBILITY AND THE ONSET OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY WITH -SN/SN A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT





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