Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 121804 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1204 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Updated the forecast this morning to cancel the wind chill
advisory for all areas a few hours early. None of the
observational points were showing wind chill criteria upon
cancellation. Have allowed the expiration of winter weather
advisory for Brown and Spink County and points west at 18Z. While
webcams shows patchy blowing snow, reduced visibilities are not an
issue. Northeastern SD and western MN are still seeing gusty winds
with blowing snow noted on several webcams.

UPDATE Issued at 748 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Updated the forecast this morning to add a few more counties to
the winter weather advisory for blowing snow and the associated
significant visibility reduction forthcoming this morning.
Upstream observations across North Dakota are quite telling.
Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 509 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Isolated to scattered flurries continue to exit our southeastern
border early this morning. Looking at the weather map early this
morning, high pressure remained across our area, with low pressure
moving across southern Manitoba. A sfc trough/cold front extending
southwest from the low is stretched out across far western ND. This
feature will quickly slide southeast and across our region this
morning. With strong high pressure building in behind the trough,
expect strong west-northwest winds to result. Winds will be
increasing this morning over and east of the Sisseton Hills, with a
wider area of strong winds expanding from the northwest closer to
daybreak. The combination of these west-northwest winds around 20kts
and gusts 25-35kts, higher near the Coteau, will result in
significant blowing and drifting snow. No new snow is expected. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be posted for this morning across much
of our northern tier, and through mid afternoon across the northeast
where winds will remain longest.

Will keep the current Wind Chill Advisory going as is. Looks like
conditions improve near or after 18Z, before returning again
tonight. Additional headlines will be needed for all but our
southwestern zones. Wind Chill Warnings may even be needed for our
northeast as areas from Brown to Traverse County fall to near -38F
from 08-13Z Friday. this will be as the strong sfc high shifts
across our northeastern counties 03-09Z Friday. While the main high
moves into MN/WI early Saturday morning a strong ridge will remain
in place across our region.

Scattered snow will return after 06Z Friday southwest of PIR.
Continued with a slower onset, with drier air likely winning out.
This area looks to expand across central and eastern areas Friday
morning, before ending/shifting east by early afternoon. Not
expecting much if any snow accumulation at this time.

Otherwise, temperatures will rebound back into the teens and even
20s over central SD both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Dry
conditions will remain from mid afternoon Friday through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Not much change in the out periods compared to 24 hours ago. Still
watching a mammoth low pressure system taking shape across the
central/southern plains states by early Monday of next week. 00Z
solutions will support this CWA remaining free and clear of this
system once it begins to occlude and gets picked up by the larger
scale steering flow and pushed northeastward. The far southeastern
forecast zones would be just about the only portion of the CWA
having any chance of seeing the back edge of deformation zone
precipitation. But, at this point, that`s a really low probability
of occurring.

Even though, the region is socked in by a widespread snowfield,
fully expecting to see the needle move a little bit once the low/mid-
level waa starts ramping up across the region over the weekend and
into next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in fair agreement timing
a cold front to sweep south out of Canada by Wednesday
night/Thursday of next week. But, at this point, the low level caa
behind it does not appear to be all that anomalous.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Blowing snow with reduced visibility can be expected for the
terminals of KABR and KATY. Once the winds diminish, prevailing
VFR conditions can be expected.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>017.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ007-
     008-011-019>023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...SD



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