Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 262146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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