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000
FXUS63 KABR 060914
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPS ALOFT ARE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. SEEING THE TYPICAL WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER VALLEY READINGS AND WARMER ELEVATED AREAS
WITH A TOUCH MORE WIND TO AID IN MIXING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER READINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESIDE. WAS CAREFUL TO
KEEP SNOW COVERED AREAS COOLER TODAY AS IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO
TO REMOVE THE REMAINING SNOW COVER BEFORE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
CAN BE REACHED.

TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST ONCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE
IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TONIGHTS...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS FOR IT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...JUST REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TRACKING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR IN PLACE. BOTH MODELS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ON WARMER AIR REMAINING OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE GFS JUST NOT AS WARM AS THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR