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000
FXUS63 KABR 120858
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
358 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...A MIX OF DENDRITES AND SNOW PELLETS. COVERAGE IS
LIMITED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...UPPER RIDGE TAKES
CHARGE AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. H925 TEMPERATURES WARM
PAST +8C TODAY WITH A FAVORABLE MIXING DIRECTION...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A DROP OFF EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS AS COLD AIR
RETREATS. MILD AIR CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT FAVORABLE MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT. H85 TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 0 TO -5C
FRIDAY...HOWEVER FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON WITH DIVERGENCE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER ON. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA WITH RIDGING NOSING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA AND RIDGING INTO OUR CWA
WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY. THUS...SATURDAY AND
FOR SUNDAY IN THE EAST LOOK TO BE THE ONLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAYS IN THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SPREAD IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE CWA. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDING EAST ON SUNDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THEN THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
BY TUESDAY...THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN KANSAS
WHILE THE GFS HAD THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE IN MORE CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE EC. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AT THE MOMENT...ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE OBSERVED IN VFR CONDITIONS.
KPIR AND KMBG WILL LIKELY SPEND THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN VFR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...KATY AND KABR COULD SEE SOME 1500FT-2500FT
AGL CIGS SPREAD OVER TERMINAL SPACE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND STICK AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHEN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO CARRY SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTION AT THESE TWO TERMINALS...INCLUDING
A PREVAILING MVFR/IFR VISBY IN LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY
BETWEEN 07Z AND 14Z. ALL FOUR TERMINALS SHOULD COME INTO A WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND /OUT WEST FIRST AND THEN BY AFTERNOON OUT EAST/...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP KPIR/KMBG IN VFR CONDITIONS...AND WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL
THE IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KABR AND KATY INTO VFR AS
WELL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN