Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272002
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A return flow surface pattern will remain over the region for the
next couple of days. The WAA across the western Dakotas along with
upper level shortwave energy has sparked off showers and
thunderstorms west of our CWA this afternoon. Most models indicate
this activity will remain west of our CWA, but did include a buffer
POP along the western border. After 6Z, a fairly weak LLJ and
theta-e ridge may be enough to develop elevated convection across
the western CWA. Confidence is low however, especially given ML
CAPE values under 100 J/KG, and it could end up being nothing more
than ACCAS.

Similar set up for Friday. Void of any lingering overnight cloud
cover, conditions should be mainly dry. Another round of LLJ/theta-e
ridge showers and thunderstorms could again occur overnight into
Saturday morning.

Saturday, a weak surface trough will slide into the region. Models
suggest some moisture return, allowing CAPE values to rise back into
the 1000-2000 J/KG range. Tough to pick out any strong upper level
support at this point however, and the best WAA forcing/moisture
convergence may be just across our CWA border into Minnesota.
Slight chance/chance thunderstorm mention persists across much of
the CWA regardless.

Overall temperatures should hover right around normal for this time
of the year, perhaps slightly above normal on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the long-term, we transition to northwest flow Saturday and
remain that way through the forecast period.  This will result in a
few chances of precip, but nothing significant appears likely at
this time.  Although, the best chance still appears to be Saturday
night into Sunday as a frontal boundary moves through.  This is
especially true in the western half of the CWA where the best
boundary-layer moisture highest instability look to be located.
Highs will be around or just slightly above average through early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations this evening and
tomorrow.  Presently, diurnal cu is forming over KATY, but the cloud
bases are expected to remain at or above 4000 ft.

Further west over KMBG and KPIR, skies will cloud over this evening
as westerly mid-level winds will force a cirrus layer from prior
thunderstorms over the area. Surface winds are also expected to pick
up in the early morning hours over the KPIR and KMBG locations,
where steady winds of around 15 kts are likely.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Telken


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