Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Have seen an uptick in activity on radar across the eastern CWA in
the past hour or so, which was what CAM solutions had been showing
for the past several hours. In fact, decent agreement exists now on
the overall evolution of the low pressure system and associated
precipitation shield to our south. Over the next few hours, we will
likely see areal coverage of showers and storms expand across the
eastern CWA. Later this morning, the surface low will begin to move
northeast across the region, spreading a shield of rainfall
northward through the eastern CWA, mainly along and east of the
James River. Target area seems to be the I-29 corridor region, which
has decent agreement amongst the CAM solutions. By 18Z and through
the afternoon, virtually all available solutions show rainfall
across the eastern CWA as the surface low moves northeast. POPs have
been increased today and will likely be able to go categorical by
later this morning. Could be looking at some locations with an inch
or more of rain once again. It appears the precipitation will linger
into tonight as the wrap-around area remains over the eastern CWA.

On Thursday, a narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface will be
in place, providing for dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
Highs look to rebound into the upper 70s to upper 80s. By Thursday
night and Friday, another piece of shortwave energy moves through
the area with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Upper ridging to zonal flow aloft this weekend will bring near to
above above average high temperatures with 80s in the east and 90s
central. Saturday will be the warmest day as southerly flow
increases at the sfc ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
may set off a few showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

By Sunday night, another sfc low will traverse the region and upper
troughing will dip in. These features will bring better chances for
more wisespread showers and thunderstorms, especially across eastern
SD and west central MN through Monday. The potential for unsettled
weather on Monday has been fairly consistent from run to run. Even
if a locale misses out on the rain, it is likely to be cloudy enough
to interfere with any eclipse viewing.

Another upper ridge will slowly begin to transition into the Rockies
on Tuesday and Wednesday leaving SD with northwest flow aloft and
temps right around average.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Mvfr/ifr cigs are expected to expand across the region overnight as
areas of rain/thunderstorms move into the region, especially eastern
parts of South Dakota. Vsbys may drop into the mvfr range as some
fog forms over the area. The fog and lower cigs will likely stick
around through Wednesday morning.




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