Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 051022
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
422 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER SOUTHERN ND. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND THE WAVE
CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST...THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST SD AND EVENTUALLY INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN. RIGHT NOW HAVE PRETTY DECENT CHANCE POPS IN THERE BUT
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY IF THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL HOLDS
TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS UNDER AN INCH.

WILL THEN BE LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY AND TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST
HOW HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB. STILL A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING WITH
THE EC CONTINUING TO BE THE WARMEST AT 925MB. MODELS VARY A BIT ON
THE COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY PLAY KEY IN JUST HOW HIGH TEMPS WILL GO. SIDED TOWARDS THE
HIGHER END OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST AREAS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY IN WHATS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE AN
IMPACTFUL WEATHER DAY ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF WINDS. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION. 0.5KM WINDS PEAK AROUND 60 KNOTS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. BUFKIT MIX DOWN WINDS ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HIGH
WIND CRITERIA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SUNDAY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AS WELL WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
NOT TREMENDOUSLY STRONG...IT IS CERTAINLY THERE TO A DEGREE. WHILE
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDS OUT WEST...THEY WILL CERTAINLY BE RATHER
GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS WELL...BUT LIKELY NOT HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. HERE THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IS INCREASING.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN BRINGING WRAP AROUND
LIGHT SNOW TO THE EASTERN CWA ON SUNDAY WHILE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE BLOWING. IN FACT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MAYBE 1 TO 2 INCHES.
THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBY
WITHIN THE AREAS OF FALLING SNOW IF THIS DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
WILL ISSUE AN SPS THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW/STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISSUES WITH LOW VSBY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MODELS HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN AFFECTING THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE PERIOD STARTS
OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL DECREASE INTO MONDAY.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ENDING
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. WITH
THIS SETUP...THERE WILL BE A SHARP THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN RELAXES A
LITTLE ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO PUSH EAST. ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO THE LOWER 40S WEST
RIVER. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL EAST TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

LATER THIS MORNING...VFR CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS
WELL...MAINLY AT THE KMBG AND KPIR TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN


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