Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 101743 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

The Freeze Warning was let go at 9 AM CDT this morning. Widespread
freezing conditions were experienced this morning, bringing a
close to the frost/freeze program here until next spring. No
changes planned to the today period. Current gridded forecast
looks good at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Temperatures continue to fall early this morning with surface high
pressure overhead. Skies are clear and winds are light, which is
allowing temps to fall through the 20s for many areas. It appears
that by daybreak, most areas will have experienced a killing freeze.

For the remainder of the short term period, conditions will be quiet
with dry conditions expected. The surface high gradually moves off
to the east and allows for increasing southerly winds Wednesday into
Thursday. Setup looked favorable to increase winds above Superblend
Wednesday and Thursday. These southerly winds will also usher in
warmer temperatures with highs rising to above normal values by
Thursday. A cold front looks to move through the area on Thursday,
which will bring cooler temps back into the region to end the work
week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

The extended period begins with a broad upper trough over the
northwestern part of the country and southwesterly flow over the
Northern Plains. The trough slowly pushes eastward, tracking across
the Upper Midwest Saturday and Saturday night. Weak northwest flow
develops over the area Sunday and Monday.

At the surface, elongated low pressure and its associated frontal
boundary will be over the CWA Thursday evening, then exits the area
overnight. Little in the way of upper support will result in a dry
frontal passage. High pressure then settles in over the area until
getting pushed northward by an approaching low pressure system on
Saturday. This low will slide across the Central Plains, with the
possibility of precipitation across the entire CWA Saturday into
Saturday evening. At this time, it appears temperatures will be warm
enough to keep the precipitation mainly liquid. High pressure will
bring a return to dry conditions Sunday and Monday.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s, with a hint at warmer
conditions in the lower to mid 60s on Monday. Overnight lows will be
in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the region this afternoon and
through the morning Tuesday. Winds will become breezy out of the
south-southeast at KMBG during the overnight hours and during the
mid to late morning for KPIR, KABR, and KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Telken



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