Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 071625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1025 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Issued at 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Continue to
see high clouds streaming in from the northwest. The sfc ridge of
high pressure gets pushed to the east as a sfc trough pushes in.
Will continue to monitor for potential downslope winds off the
Sisseton Hills this afternoon, with some gusts nearing 30kts.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Temperatures are rather cold across the CWA this morning with clear
skies and fairly light winds in place. Temperatures have dipped
below zero in Aberdeen (typical) and across portions of northeast
SD. Further west across Corson and Dewey counties, readings are
actually closer to 5 below zero. This is where they have a couple of
inches of snow on the ground to help achieve colder temperatures.

Will be watching a warm front move into the CWA later today, with
temperatures rising into the 30s over the western CWA. Cooler 20s
will continue over eastern areas. Clouds will increase through the
day and mid-level saturation looks to develop by late afternoon.
Several models are also generating some very light precip as an area
of weak lift develops as we saturate lower. Added some slight chance
POPs for this. Clouds will continue spreading across the area
overnight with lower level saturation occurring. Models continue to
hint at some flurry or very light snow activity so decided to
mention a chance of flurries through the overnight. Soundings
suggest the eastern CWA stands the best potential for very light
snow overnight. Mid-levels begin to dry out late while we stay
saturated down low, so perhaps some freezing drizzle potential as
well. Will let day shift examine that a bit further.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Persistent northerly flow aloft will dominate the long term portion
of the forecast.

The period begins with a shortwave diving southward across the Great
Lakes Region Friday night. This area will see breezy northerly
winds, but otherwise dry conditions from this system. With highs
warming above 32 degrees on Friday, have removed the mention of
blowing snow Friday night. A surface high pressure will slide across
the region on Saturday with temperatures cooling in the eastern CWA.
Highs in the mid 20s are expected over eastern SD, while western SD
climbs into the 40s. Sunday should be warm, but breezy across the
region. Highs should reach the 40s and 50s.

Models agree fairly well with a compact system crossing the region
Sunday night through Monday. This system should bring gusty
northerly winds along with a chance for pcpn.

Another system will cross the eastern Dakotas Monday night through
Tuesday. This system will bring light snow, along with breezy
condition. Warmer temps should filter into the region behind this
system with highs in the 30s and low 40s for Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The area will largely see VFR conditions this morning, although a
patch of IFR/MVFR CIGs drifting southeast out of ND may affect
KABR later this morning. Otherwise, expect lowering CIGs through
the afternoon, with MVFR possibly affecting KATY. As we head into
the overnight hours, a larger area of MVFR is forecast to spread
across eastern SD, affecting KABR and KATY. Further west over KMBG
and KPIR, conditions are expected to remain mostly VFR through the
TAF forecast period.




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