Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 242336 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
536 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SNOW HAS MOVED
INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING...BUT IS LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AS ALL
MODELS POINT TO INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COLDER
AIR SWEEPS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF KPIR. AS FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...THE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST IN ALMOST ALL THE
MODELS...MATCHING BETTER THE LATEST TRENDS IN OMEGA/UVM FROM
A COUPLE APPROACHING WAVES. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IT WILL AGAIN TURN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
COLD UNDER SFC HIGH. TNT TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD NOT GET TOO COLD. BUT RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES AT MOST AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES. OVERALL THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY COLD PATTERN AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES AS THEY APPEAR FINE FOR THE
TIME BEING. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
LED TO REMOVAL OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

-SN/SN IS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM POSSIBLE AT KMBG. CIGS WITHIN AREAS
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MAY FALL TO BELOW 1000 FT. ALSO...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF -FZRA IS POSSIBLE AT KPIR LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
CHANGE OVER TO SN OCCURS. TIMING OF THE -FZRA POSSIBILITY AND THE
ONSET OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY WITH -SN/SN A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE






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