Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220232
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INHERITED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEPENING 500HPA SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE FAR SW CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON CURRENT OVERNIGHT FCST. EXCEPT FOR HOURLY
TWEAKS TO TEMP/DWPTS...INHERITED GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATE TO
FORECAST PACKAGE NEEDED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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