Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161746 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS CLOUD
MOVEMENTS DICTATE SUCH. OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES HERE AND
THERE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND MINOR
PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WED NIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AREA RADARS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES SLIDING SOUTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT
KABR BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT PICK BACK UP BASED ON
KBIS/KMVX RADARS. THIS LAST BIT OF LIGHT PCPN MOST LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700HPA/850HPA TROWEL ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW. FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO DIMINISH VERY QUICKLY AS CAA POURS
INTO CWA...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH 15Z.

NEXT CONCERN SHOWS UP FOR TONIGHT. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ON WHERE
NO SNOW/SNOW LINE RESIDES...BUT IF SKIES TONIGHT GO CLEAR TO
PTCLOUDY...COULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT AND TEMP DROP
BETWEEN THE SNOW/NO SNOW AREAS. FOR NOW...LEANED TOWARD COLDER GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL HEADING TOWARD MID-END OF THE
WEEK...WITH MODELS ALSO AGREEING ON NEXT IMPACTFUL WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS SHOW NICE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NW-SE ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. BIT MORE 700HPA THETA-E FORCING IS NOTED ALONG
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH OPEN WAVE SLIDING THROUGH IN 700HPA FLOW.
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
BECAUSE OF THIS. AS OF RIGHT NOW DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT
TO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH NOT MUCH FOR
WEATHER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION
STARTS OUT WEAK WITH INCREASING WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THUS...ONLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
WITH VERY LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THEM. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATE AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE REGION AND TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO
OUR EAST WITH PREVAILING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA AT GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH. WITH THESE SOUTH WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ARE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW
AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THEREFORE...THE KABR TAF SITE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE KATY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER KMBG AND KPIR ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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