Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Still dealing with a few showers and thunderstorms across the
western CWA, but for the most part, it`s actually been a pretty
quiet night as far as thunderstorm activity goes. As the day
progresses, frontal boundary will march eastward into the area with
moderate to strong instability developing. Shortwave over the
northern Rockies will continue to move east providing support for
additional shower and thunderstorm development. Best 0-6km bulk
shear resides across ND, but there is enough over our area to
support strong to severe convection. Hi-res models trying to close
in on a scenario which includes initial development of storms over
ND within zone of ascent related to advancing shortwave. Upscale
growth to an MCS or multiple storm clusters then seems likely as
activity eventually moves into MN. How far south more organized and
widespread convection makes it is the big question. Models
suggesting more activity across ND where best bulk shear resides.
Although, there should be some degree of activity over this CWA as
well, and any storms that do form have the potential to be strong or
severe. Activity will quickly move east into MN this evening as the
front makes steady eastward progress. Much drier air will move in
behind the front and Sunday will be warm, but fairly comfortable as
dewpoints will be much lower than what we have seen this past week.

The rest of the short term is rather quiet. High pressure moves in
Sunday night with lows likely dipping into the 50s for many
locations which is something we have not seen for several days now.
Monday looks rather warm again as 850mb temps climb through the 20s
C. Probably looking at mid to upper 90s once again over central SD.
Although, with dewpoints likely remaining in the 50s, do not expect
heat indices to climb over 100 degrees at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will transition to a weak trough and
northwest flow by the end of the period. A number of shortwaves
moving through the flow coupled with persistent weak sfc low
pressure will bring continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the extended. Temperatures will trend down through the week,
starting with high in the mid 80s to lower 90s and ending with highs
around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Mvfr/ifr stratus across the southern tier counties will erode by
15z. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a warm front this
morning and a cold front this afternoon will push across the
region. Mvfr/ifr cigs and vsbys are possible in stronger storms.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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