Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
350 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low moving
southward across MN. Scattered light showers persist across the
eastern CWA, with more activity upstream moving southwest across the
Red River valley. Expecting this activity to move into the eastern
CWA over the next several hours. As the upper low moves southward
today, best chance for light showers will continue to be across the
east as models indicate. Amounts will be light. Rather chilly air
aloft with this system as well, and it appears highs will be stuck
in the 50s today under mostly cloudy skies. Breezy north winds will
also keep conditions feeling cool.

This system moves out by tonight, with surface high pressure
building in. Winds will go light and depending on how much clearing
we see, temperatures will get rather chilly. Will have to monitor
for possible frost headlines if conditions appear to warrant. Will
be watching cloud cover trends through the day. Dropped lows a
couple degrees and now have readings in the upper 30s for many
areas. Inserted some patchy frost into the grids for now as
conditions could certainly support this.

Temperatures begin to moderate on Wednesday as upper level ridging
begins to build across the Dakotas and 925/850 mb temps begin to
rise. Highs will rebound into the 60s to around 70 degrees. By
Wednesday night, a surface trough will move into central SD, with
chances for showers.

Thursday is looking mild with potential for good mixing, although
GFS is a bit more bullish with surface winds compared to other
models. Should be able to see highs rise into the lower 70s as
surface trough continues pushing eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper level low will spin over central Canada early in the
period, with shortwave energy tracking across the CWA. The main low
center will drop southward over the area Sunday night and Monday
before sliding east of the region, keeping northwest flow in place
Monday night.

At the surface, a frontal boundary extending between low pressure
systems over central Canada and northern Texas will be over the
eastern CWA Thursday evening, then pushes east overnight. Weak high
pressure noses in from the northwest on Friday, until the low
pressure system to the north begins to drop southward. This system
looks to bring precipitation chances to the region Saturday through
Monday, with high pressure moving back in Monday night.

Temperatures will be right around normal, with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

MVFR cigs will likely settle in over KABR/KATY and then persist
into Tuesday morning before improving later in the day. Showers
are expected to gradually end late. VFR conditions are expected
at KPIR/KMBG through Tuesday.




LONG TERM...Parkin
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