Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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