Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170314 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
TAPERING OFF AND VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING. WINDS ACROSS THE EAST
ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH AT 15 TO 20 MPH TO BLOW AROUND THE SNOW.
WORST CONDITIONS OF 1 TO 3 MILE VISIBILITY ARE OCCURRING IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 25 MPH OR HIGHER...MAINLY
RIGHT AROUND AND JUST EAST OF KPIR. THESE VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT HOUR.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE/HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PIVOT SWD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY SHARP
SFC TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...WITH
STRONG NWLY WINDS AND CAA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...VISIBILITY REDUCTION HAS GENERALLY
REMAINED AT OR ABOVE ONE HALF MILE. THERE WAS CONCERN EARLIER
TODAY THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN A FEW AREAS...BUT
THUS FAR THIS HAS NOT BEEN REALIZED. AS A RESULT...FEEL THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IS HANDLING THE SITUATION
NICELY BASED ON REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES. WITH THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBYS...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A
MODERATE CAA REGIME WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW...ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO IN MOST AREAS.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH CAA ALOFT WILL BRING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT BEST ON MONDAY. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES RATES AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY FILTER INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER TEMPS OFF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH TEMPS LIKELY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR WEST RIVER.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. 925 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 0C BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 35 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH AND SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF IFR VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPROVE BY 3Z TO 6Z TO
MVFR OR EVEN VFR.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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