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000
FXUS63 KABR 292349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES...AND REALLY THE
ONLY ONE THAT LOOKS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE AREA...WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO EXPECT IT TO MOVE THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE DOMINANT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE CWA WITH DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL
KEEP A SMALL POP GOING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MILD BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SUNDAY COULD END UP COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH IF THE
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT THERE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT
TIME PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S EAST
TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST...THEN JUST A BIT COOLER SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL MANY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES.

THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE OF EJECTING THE UPPER LOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER. THE GFS ALSO HAS A MUCH MORE
DEVELOPED DRY SLOT THAT WOULD AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL SD IF THIS
SOLUTION PANS OUT. ALSO...THE SFC LOW MOVEMENT LOOKS TO BE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ND INTO NC MINNESOTA. NOT A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE ABR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL PUSH
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRECIP DEVELOPING AS A RESULT WILL
BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW (AND POSSIBLY MIXED FREEZING PRECIP) TO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE SFC LOW GETS CRANKED UP. BASED UPON
EXPERIENCE...PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE EJECTING LOW BUT
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY DYNAMIC SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING.

ITS TOO EARLY TO CALL FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THERE CERTAINLY DOES
LOOK TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SD AND ESPECIALLY THE SISSETON HILLS. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO CLEAR
THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM AFFECTS ND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
COLD DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO (AND NORMAL)
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN