Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240556 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1256 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. WITH SATELLITE
SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS OVER ND ARE
DISSIPATING RATHER THAN SPREADING SO REMOVED POP MENTION THIS
EVENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. ADJUSTED START TIME OF POPS AND
SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST HI-RES CAM SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SE MONTANA IS PRODUCING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THIS CWA. WHILE MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE WARM
FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SURFACE OBS SUGGESTS AN
ADDITIONAL FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG I-94 IN ND WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL DAY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA AS BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A
40 TO 50 KNOT LLJ. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE NE CWA AFTER 3Z.

THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LOOKS
LESS LIKELY THAN BEFORE. WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING
INTO THE MID 50S...WIDESPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
WEST AND THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT
SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER THAN
1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 18Z IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
35 TO 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THUS A FEW HOURS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE RATHER INTERESTING IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. CAPE
VALUES SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONGST
THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK...WITH THE 12Z EC
TAKING A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH ROUTE. REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS
AT THIS POINT THAT THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CWA. DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SNOW MIXING IN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS TEMPS DROP
INTO THE MID 30S. SUPERBLEND POPS ARE RATHER HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THESE APPEAR LEGIT AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY COOL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. COOLEST TEMPS WILL
BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THE STORM SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK



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