Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161632 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1032 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Forecast for today is pretty much on track and don`t foresee big
changes. Main issue will be temperatures once again, and just how
efficiently they will or will not warm over deeper snow cover.
Previous forecasts have already dropped highs a couple degrees
over appropriate areas, so we`ll see how today`s temps pan out.
Although, we are already a bit ahead of temperatures 24 hours ago
at this time for some areas, so should be on track to see
readings a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday. Will be
interesting to watch MBG again and see how their temps respond.
Otherwise, the storm system to our south will stay there, and a
dry forecast will prevail. The only thing it will bring us will be
some mid and high level clouds along the southern and eastern
portions of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

While light snow could flirt with southern Lyman County through mid
afternoon, dry conditions should persist across the entire cwa
through Wednesday and beyond. The sfc low brining freezing drizzle
to FSD early this morning is currently located over OK, and will
exit across MO this evening and northern IL overnight. A ridge of
high pressure will remain strong across our northern and
northwestern zones, with increased cloud cover being the main
impact. Expect high pressure will build across the Central and
Southern Plains on Tuesday, before exiting across the MS valley on
Wednesday.

Temperatures and downslope Sisseton Hills winds continue to be the
trickiest parts of the forecast. With the significant snowpack
across all but our far south, and limited mixing, high temperatures
remain closer to the lower end of available guidance. This should
still end up 5-8F warmer that was was experienced Sunday. Highs
should jump into the 20s across most of the cwa.

Not expecting as much of a Sisseton Hills impact tonight, but the
downslope winds have wrecked havoc on the fcst for Roberts County
the last several nights with increased winds and temperatures.

While highs on Tuesday should be another 5-8F warmer than today, the
real warm up will begin Wednesday. Despite dewpoints hovering in
the low to mid 20s, highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s southwest will
result in at least some melting/compacting snow. Will need to wait
and see if we`ll need to lower this prediction over the northern
half of the forecast area, where the higher snowpack remains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The trend continues for expected warmer temps through the extended
with upper ridging over the Plains through the work week. Forecast
Blender temps are probably a bit too high (by at least 5 degrees)
over local areas with a deep snow pack so that will need to be
considered as the time period approaches.

As the ridge transitions east this weekend, a deep upper
trough/closed off upper low will move into the region. Coupled with
a weak sfc low, periods of rain/snow will be possible starting
Friday night. Since much of the forcing is associated with shortwave
energy, timing and areal extent are still difficult to determine at
this time and pops may therefore change over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across most of the region through the
period. There has been some persistent light fog near KATY
resulting in MVFR visibility. Expect this to improve to VFR by
18z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise


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