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000
FXUS63 KABR 142011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP. FOR TNT EXPECT THE MOSTLY
DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING
SINCE S/W HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED ON. MEANWHILE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SLACKENING WINDS TO OFFER UP A COLD NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN RECORD
FOR A FEW LOCALES. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MILDER DAY FOR THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES
DEVELOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING.
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS WHAT
WILL TRACK PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. JET DYNAMICS
AND MID LEVEL OMEGA LOOK PRETTY STRONG AS DOES THETA E ADVECTION
AROUND H7. ALTHOUGH THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL THE BEST ELEMENTS
APPEARS AS IF IT WILL COME TOGETHER A LITTLE EAST OF THE ABR CWA.
NONETHELESS AM STILL EXPECTING A MIXED BAG OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PCPN TURNS OVER MOSTLY TO SNOW. A
BIT TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES...BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
TURNOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE FAR
NORTHEAST MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. 850 MB TEMPS START OFF AS
COLD AS -10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL SHOW
A GRADUAL WARM UP STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AND MAYBE
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...ONLY KEEPING AN EYE ON ONE SYSTEM FOR THE
TIME BEING WHICH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME. THERES ACTUALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/EC/GEM IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD PUT
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. AS OF
RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER...SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP RIGHT NOW. TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW...BUT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY
MORNING TO CHANGE ANYTHING TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT -SHSN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS MAINLY REMAINING VFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A FEW
EMBEDDED SHSN WHICH MAY BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. CIGS WILL
DISSIPATE/IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY...BUT FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN