Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230228
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
828 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS TO THE NORTH HEADED SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH CIGS AROUND
8KFT...BUT AS OF YET NO INDICATION ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND. DOUBT MUCH WILL GET THIS FAR SOUTH AS PER SOUNDING...IE
THE RATHER SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BELOW 14KFT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE CLOSER TO MORNING A FEW RETURNS MAKING IT THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN CWA...SO WILL LEAVE MORNING LOW POPS ALONE AT
THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW/NO SNOW LINE IS VERY APPARENT IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE
SISSETON HILLS ARE ALSO ONGOING. THE PEEVER OBSERVATION SITE HAS
RECORDED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. MODEL 925 MB WINDS PEAK AROUND
00Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THEREAFTER. SO EXPECT WINDS TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ADVISE TRAVELERS OF GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS GIVEN A
PRETTY DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB. FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD
PROVE TO BE WARMER STILL WITH THE SNOW COVERED REGIONS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND THE SNOW FREE AREAS LIKELY TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID 40S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST THEN COMES INTO PLAY
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AS
IT IS SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS.
THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO DIVERGE IN THE MID RANGE NOW AS WELL WITH
THE ECMWF A LITTLE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC THAN THE GFS ABOUT A SECOND
CLIPPER/TROUGH SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. AREAS ALONG I-29 WILL SEE THE
FIRST CLIPPER EXIT SUNDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND
TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING THERE COULD STILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
EARLY BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS SNOW ENDS AND TEMPS
RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING. BOTH MODELS THEN BRING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION BUT THE FORCING..LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR CAA BEHIND THE
TROUGH ARE MORE ENHANCED ON THE ECMWF. ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN QPF OUTPUT AND
SENTIENT WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER THE
PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA MID WEEK TEMPS WILL SOAR
INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON
WEDNESDAY.






&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. KATY MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BRIEFLY MOVE THOUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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