Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 272013
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
313 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over western South
Dakota thanks to an upper level shortwave. With fairly stable
conditions east of the Missouri River, believe the convection should
dissipate in north central SD. There is better instability along and
south of I-90 where stronger storms are possible. With high values
of DCAPE, believe gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm.

A secondary shortwave, along with a weak 25 knot LLJ will bring the
potential for additional storms late tonight through the morning
hours on Thursday. Locations along and west of the Missouri River
valley will have the best potential of seeing storms.

Yet another shortwave will cross the region on Friday. With a
surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region, storms may affect
most of the CWA due to increasing LLM and instability.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

A building upper level ridge will shift east through the weekend
while a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest region. Generally
speaking, precipitation chances remain low, although models do try
to show some weak energy ahead of the main trough riding over the
ridge and potentially kicking of some storms Sunday night/Monday.
Uncertain of the severe potential as current model runs only show
modest cape/shear profiles. By early next week the upper low will
move east...tracking across central Canada...and dampening the ridge
over the north central CONUS. Most of the energy/highest POPs will
remain north of this CWA. A general warming trend can be expected
through the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Lingering MVFR CIGS over the KMBG TAF site will scatter out in the
next hour or so. Beyond that, no other reductions to CIGS and
VSBYS are expected. North northeast winds will transition to the
east tonight.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Serr


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