Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 282104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
404 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The ridge of dry high pressure stretching from far northern Canada
through ND and much of SD will remain across western and northern SD
through much of the day Saturday. However, we are starting to see
some of the impacts from the storm system to our south, in the form
of high clouds. Saturday will bring very contrasting weather to the
region. Very dry air will remain over central and eastern SD, with
PW values of 0.16 to 0.25 inches through the day Saturday. The dew
point got down to 15F at MBG early this afternoon. Expect similar
readings tomorrow, with rh values falling to 20 to 25 percent
northwest of a line from PIR to ABR. Light and variable winds will
become more easterly from early afternoon on. Not expecting much in
the way of gusts, as soundings indicate winds at or below 15kts all
the way up to 500mb. We may mix to 700mb tomorrow.

Our dry weather will be coming to an end after 06Z Sunday, as rain
rotates northward into our far southeastern counties. With
temperatures falling into the mid and upper 30s, expect some mixing
with light snow to occur closer to daybreak Sunday. This will be
while the 500mb low over UT/CO this afternoon digs across eastern NM
and northern TX. The sfc low currently organizing from CO through NM
will shift across TX/OK Saturday afternoon, and along the KS/MO
border by daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The focus in the long term portion of the forecast continues to be
the developing system to the south that is expected to deliver rain
and snow to portions of the eastern forecast area late in the
weekend into early next week. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model consensus
remains in a strengthening area low pressure tracking out of IA
Sunday night and into SE MN and Western WI during the day Monday.
Guidance is also coming into better alignment in terms of
precipitation placement and timing. The western edge of the precip
shield has shifted a bit farther west to include areas between the
U.S. Highway 83 corridor and the U.S. Highway 281 corridor. Rain
expected in these areas initially through late Sunday evening before
a changeover to a mix of rain/snow and just plain snow by early
Monday morning across the I-29 corridor. Accumulation wise, it still
looks as if that I-29 corridor and the Prairie Coteau region will
see the bulk of the snow with a band of 2-4 inches probable.

Nudged temperatures back closer to CONSRAW for highs both Monday and
Tuesday due to the main system highlighted above. Also nudged wind
speeds up across the eastern zones due to the influence of this
system pushing through. This system will depart by the end of the
day Monday. A quick moving s/w trough will slide through Tuesday
into Wednesday. At this time, precip will be in the form of rain
showers and amounts will be generally on the low side. Temperatures
will gradually modify closer to normal by the middle of next week
and possibly warmer than average by the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

VFR conditions will remain for the next 24 hours as a ridge of dry
high pressure remains in control. Wind gusting 18 to 22kts early
this afternoon will relax shortly after 22Z this evening, with
winds remaining around 10kts or less through 18Z Saturday.




LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...KF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.