Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Surface high pressure will drift southeastward across the region
tonight. Winds will become light and variable as the high passes
through. Low temperatures tonight should fall into the 30s and
lower 40s before southerly winds develop on the back side of the
surface high.

An upper level ridge and increasing WAA will spread across the
region on Thursday. With 925 mb temps in the upper teens, high
temperatures on Thursday should reach the mid 70s to the lower
80s. While winds will be gusty Thursday afternoon, increasing LLM
should limit fire weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

For the long term, the mid level pattern appears to be somewhat
progressive, until late in the period when major amplification
occurs as a strong ridge develops over the western conus, and
downstream trof digs into the southeast conus.

The best chance for any measurable pcpn over the forecast area will
be late Friday night into Saturday as a trof/sfc front move across
the region. Just ahead of the surface front, enough LLM gets into
the system such as to support weak CAPE profiles, and thus isold
thunder potential. Given progged UVM/moisture/instability, sct
POPs look appropriate for this time period. Another front slides
through on Monday, but measurable pcpn chances look pretty meager
at this time.

Temperatures will favor above normal through the weekend, but then
should slide back to normal next week as a cooler airmass moves
into the Northern Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Thursday. Look for the possibility of some low level wind
shear in the 40 to 50 knot range around the 2000 foot level Thursday




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