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460
FXUS63 KABR 161728 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Widespread rain showers continue across the eastern third or so of
the forecast area, with scattered activity across the central and
southwest. Have adjusted POPs just a bit to better account for
where this rain is occurring. No changes made to winds or
temperatures at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Have seen an uptick in activity on radar across the eastern CWA in
the past hour or so, which was what CAM solutions had been showing
for the past several hours. In fact, decent agreement exists now on
the overall evolution of the low pressure system and associated
precipitation shield to our south. Over the next few hours, we will
likely see areal coverage of showers and storms expand across the
eastern CWA. Later this morning, the surface low will begin to move
northeast across the region, spreading a shield of rainfall
northward through the eastern CWA, mainly along and east of the
James River. Target area seems to be the I-29 corridor region, which
has decent agreement amongst the CAM solutions. By 18Z and through
the afternoon, virtually all available solutions show rainfall
across the eastern CWA as the surface low moves northeast. POPs have
been increased today and will likely be able to go categorical by
later this morning. Could be looking at some locations with an inch
or more of rain once again. It appears the precipitation will linger
into tonight as the wrap-around area remains over the eastern CWA.

On Thursday, a narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface will be
in place, providing for dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
Highs look to rebound into the upper 70s to upper 80s. By Thursday
night and Friday, another piece of shortwave energy moves through
the area with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Upper ridging to zonal flow aloft this weekend will bring near to
above above average high temperatures with 80s in the east and 90s
central. Saturday will be the warmest day as southerly flow
increases at the sfc ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
may set off a few showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

By Sunday night, another sfc low will traverse the region and upper
troughing will dip in. These features will bring better chances for
more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially across
eastern SD and west central MN through Monday. The potential for
unsettled weather on Monday has been fairly consistent from run to
run. Even if a locale misses out on the rain, it is likely to be
cloudy enough to interfere with any eclipse viewing.

Another upper ridge will slowly begin to transition into the Rockies
on Tuesday and Wednesday leaving SD with northwest flow aloft and
temps right around average.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Rain will continue across the southern and eastern portions of
the CWA this afternoon and into the evening hours. An isolated
thunderstorm or two are also possible. Cigs will generally be in
the MVFR category with the rain, with vsbys occasionally dropping
to MVFR levels as well. VFR conditions will prevail where it isn`t
raining. This system will push off to the east later tonight, with
conditions becoming VFR across the entire area by sunrise
Thursday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin