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000
FXUS63 KABR 212353 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
653 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFFECTING ND THIS EVENING HAS
PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO REMOVE CORSON AND CAMPBELL
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BORDER
COUNTIES FARTHER EAST FOR ANY POTENTIAL STRONG WINDS OR HAIL.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRONG CAP/WARM AIR ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING EVERYTHING BACK
SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA WITH ALL OF THE STORMS CONFINED TO ND. WITH
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NC SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HEADING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION...WILL CONTINUE WITH STORM CHANCES
ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA
STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. OTHERWISE...GOOD CAA
IN THE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FOR TUESDAY AND THEN BUILD SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. SHOULD END UP
WITH SOME UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE EASTERN CWA FOR
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
WAA AND SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 12Z
GFS AND MODEL GUIDANCE FROM ALLBLEND. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
UNAVAILABLE FOR THE FORECAST.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH WAA
SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG WITH
A WEAK H7 S/W COULD RESULT IN CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER S/W AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE AND 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR COULD RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CAUSE SOUTHEASTERLY...TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE ND/SD STATE LINE THIS EVENING. WINDS
BEHIND THE LOW HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ARE BREEZY
AT 15 TO 30 KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ND/SD STATE LINE BUT COULD DIP DOWN BRIEFLY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NE SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN