Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 310312 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER. UPDATED FORECAST.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOW ACCUMULATION...PLACEMENT AND TIMING
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID-MORNING.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND THE LAST PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR A GOOD WEEK HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME 50S WORKING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED IN
NORTH DAKOTA TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS/WINDS...ARCTIC COLD AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AND DOES NOT STOP UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS/SNOW...CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...SHOULD START TO SEE A LAYER
OF STRATUS WORKING DOWN INTO THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /OVER B.C. CANADA/ APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WRINKLE...ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE ENERGY /OVER
THE SWRN U.S./ IS ALSO GOING TO BE LIFTING UP ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO THINK THAT
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO ONE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AND THAT COULD MEAN
THAT CURRENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FORECAST SNOWFALL ENDS UP BEING
OFF A BIT. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...STILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
SHOWING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NC SODAK AND SPREADING
SEWD OVERNIGHT. DID EXTEND POPS/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY PER THE SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN QPF DEPARTURE NOTED IN THE
12Z SUITE OF MODELS. STILL DEALING WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF QPF IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SLR`S SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND UP TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM EUREKA TO HAYTI. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT IN
THIS INSTANCE...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION/ENTRAINMENT WILL EAT
UP MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ALL STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE 15Z RUN OF THE
SREF WAS ALSO STILL PEGGING HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF SEEING AT
LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT`S SNOWING...MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA ON MONDAY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT LLM MOISTURE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE BETTER LLM ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS ARE IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AFFECTING LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE MBG AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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