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000
FXUS63 KABR 021809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1209 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...DELAYING POPS BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD