Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150523 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1123 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Increased cloud cover across central SD early this evening as
some mid level clouds traverse the region. The remainder of the
forecast is on track, and no further changes were necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Impressive warmup across the mostly snow free areas, and with
dewpoints in the mid 20s and a continued light west wind, readings
will remain mild overnight. Winds become northerly as a front drops
across the Dakotas, with it reaching the state line right around
sunrise. The front proceeds across the CWA during the day, and with
cold advection and likely some stratus, readings will stall or fall
all day. There is a gradient across the region, with pressure rises
of 12-14mb/6hrs. BUFKIT mixed winds top out around 30kts, so I added
some blowing snow, but this is only anticipated while snow is
falling thanks to recent snow melt. CAMS and deterministic models
continue to show a weak wave generating some light QPF in the post
frontal environment focused around the late morning/early afternoon
hours in western/central South Dakota. SREF/GEFS plumes are all
averaging around .1 inches, which is a little higher than
deterministic output, but means a few spots could top an inch
(though that will be blown around). Snow trends downwards during the
afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The flow pattern aloft at the start of the period is still stuck in
northwest flow. But, by Sunday it appears there will be a change
developing in that flow pattern for next week to southwest flow
aloft. Circle Sunday through Tuesday on your calendars, as the
operational 12Z ECMWF, GFS and Canadian GSM solutions all appear to
have a little bit of agreement on some light precipitation falling
over the region during that time. The 12Z GEFS is not overly helpful
in supporting the idea of some light snow. Will continue to monitor
trends in qpf placement/timing in the models for Sunday through
Tuesday.

Temp-wise, deterministic solutions and NAEFS output are in fair
agreement that it appears Thursday night/Friday is a relatively cool
period, before some weak low level waa tries to warm things up
closer to mid-February climo normal temperature range over the
weekend. Sunday appears to be a transition day for temperature as
models are all trending the return of a low level caa pattern, with
low level thermal progs dropping the region back down into below
normal temperatures range for, at least, the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected tonight. Snow showers will impact the
region on Thursday with MVFR cigs and IFR vsby. Gusty north winds
of 15 to 30 mph will help the snow blow around as it falls
resulting in the vsby around 1SM at times.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Wise



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