Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291518 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1018 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY EXITED TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH DENSE
FOG ACROSS SOME AREAS BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 45.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES THERE.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

WEAK UPPER TROF MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. IF WE BREAK OUT...ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALSO BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR...SO AN ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THERE IS
AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND...SO
ANTICIPATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAIN INHIBITING
FACTOR...PARTICULARLY FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANY BREAKS WILL
ALLOW FOR READINGS...WHICH ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 60S...TO JUMP
INTO THE MID 70S...AND FOR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LONGER BREAK IN CLOUDS...LOW/MID 80S.

MAIN FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TOWARDS THE UPPER TROF MOVING IN FOR LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY WE ARE WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND DESPITE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US CAPPED. ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS H7 TEMPERATURES WARM TO +12C AND A 50KT
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...THOUGH NOSE OF THE JET MAY FOCUS
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.

MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL BY THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT SUGGEST SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THANKS TO A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE...THOUGH THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE
LINCHPIN TO THIS FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE LONG
WAVE FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE US. THE PERIOD SHOWS
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION BECOMING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION KICKING TO THE EAST.
THUS...HAVE IN A GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY
EVENING IN THE EAST. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN
GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES
WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST ALOFT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST
US. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COOL FRONT WILL THEN AFFECT
OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD BRINGING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. WITH 50H HEIGHTS BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. THESE
MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME MORE STRATUS
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE ATY AND ABR AREAS LATER THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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