Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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306
FXUS63 KABR 280720
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
220 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

The large sfc high over south central Canada and central ND will
remain along the U.S./Canadian border today, and push a sizable
ridge across our forecast area Friday. This will be while the main
high shifts towards the Great Lakes Region. Despite the sfc high, we
will continue to see off and of showers and thunderstorms slide in
thanks to the chain of small waves in our 500MB northwesterly flow
that will continue through Saturday. Timing and placement of the
individual waves will be difficult, but mainly impacting west river.

The steady east to northeasterly near-sfc winds will be on the way
out during the day Friday. Another day of highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s is expected today, with highs slowly increasing back into
the 80s cwa wide by Saturday. 850MB temps by the end of the day
Saturday will rise to 16 to 22C, highest west.

Thunderstorm chances will return to much of the area Friday, with a
better chance on Saturday as the sfc ridge continues to exit to our
east and plenty of low level moisture returns on increasing southerly
winds. PW values will range from around 0.75-1.1in Friday
afternoon, and 1-1.4in Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

A building upper ridge will bring warmer temps for the latter half
of the weekend and the start of the work week. Highs will be near or
slightly above average. By Wednesday an upper low will depress the
ridge as the low progresses east over the Canadian plains. Shortwave
energy will be difficult to time through the period, but the trend
remains active. Coupled with persistent sfc low pressure, there
remains sufficient energy for periodic showers and thunderstorms.
Best chances this forecast run for cwa-wide precip will be Sunday
and Monday nights and Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

It`s entirely possible some showers could develop later this morning
and move over/in the vicinity of the KMBG and KPIR terminals. For
this reason, VCSH has been introduced for a few hours. Amendments to
refine timing will likely be needed. KABR and KATY are expected to
remain dry, however, throughout the entire TAF valid period. VFR
weather will be the prevailing flight category while winds are light
from the east.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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