Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230526 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE INVERTED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN SD DISSIPATES. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP AS WINDS TURN NORTH AND
INCREASE. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR CHANGING ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
ALL OF THE CWA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY BY
MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREA WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY STILL LOOKS GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION THERE IN LIQUID
FORM...WHILE SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE WEST WHERE SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR IS NOW MOVING IN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE LINGERING WARM AIR OVER
THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE SNOW TO BEGIN...SO AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK MORE LIKELY. WILL ALSO SEE THE WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS
UP...WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS LIKELY TO AID IN SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW AND POSSIBLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL THE
COUNTIES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG ACROSS THE EAST...AND BY THE TIME THEY DO PICK UP A
LITTLE...THE SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END.

THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
AS THERE WILL BE NO REAL SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WITH OR BEHIND THIS
STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE LOW IS
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRACKS EASTERLY ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A
BAROCLINIC ZONE RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER DUE TO
THE RATHER QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH...GIVEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WHICH WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THIS STORM TO CHANGE COURSE BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THIS IS
WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...AND WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SURPRISINGLY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HEAD INTO SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS BY THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE LOWER SOME
OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT COLDER TEMPS.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP...EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW....ESPECIALLY AT PIR
AND MBG. THE SNOW WILL DISSIPATE/END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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