Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 120142 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
842 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
BESIDES A LINGERING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPIR...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE HAVE PRETTY
MUCH DISSIPATED. NOW WATCHING THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD/WESTERN NE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OUT OF WYOMING. ADDITIONAL FORCING IS ALSO EXPECTED AS A JET
STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SO BESIDES SOME INITIAL
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT/TOMORROW
AND THEN COOLING TEMP TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS AT
LEAST 2000J/KG OF MLCAPE IS AROUND/AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMID 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND VIRTUALLY NO CAPPING
INVERSION /LESS THAN -50J/KG MLCIN/. AT THIS POINT...ONLY TIME
WILL TELL IF STORMS ACTUALLY GET GOING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THIS CWA IN THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.

TONIGHT...A GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP IS MAINTAINED FOR THE
GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PICKING UP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. THEN...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
DRY UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ALSO...925HPA AND 850HPA
THERMAL PROGS MAINTAIN A WARM /NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL/ AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ONE FINAL DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING A
CHANGE TO LOW LEVEL CAA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BIG COOL DOWN EARLY ON WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA WITH
STRONG CAA ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR OFF THE
SURFACE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO BE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS THE CWA. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE A STRATUS LAYER ON MONDAY MORNING...MIXING OUT
INTO A HIGHER CU LAYER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ANOMALOUSLY COOL
AIR...RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID 80S EAST
TO THE LOWER 90S WEST. WITH THE LATEST EC SHOWING LOWER 30S C AT
925MB FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING A LOT WARMER BY
THE TIME FRIDAY IS HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND COULD NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE KPIR TAF
SITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OVERALL SHOULD NOT HAVE A
HUGE IMPACT ON THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH THIS FORCING AND WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY... AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN A
FEW RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF
LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE NEAR RECORD COLD READINGS ON MONDAY:

...LOCATION......FORECAST....RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP...
WHEATON MN          63          72 IN 1949
SISSETON            64          70 IN 1993
WATERTOWN           64          61 IN 1962
ABERDEEN            66          65 IN 1962
MOBRIDGE            68          64 IN 1962
PIERRE              70          65 IN 1989

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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