Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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749
FXUS63 KABR 230531 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

As one upper level shortwave exits the region this evening, another
one will quickly move into the region from the north. This secondary
system will bring light pcpn into the eastern CWA. Based on hi-res
models, the showers may dissipate some tonight before redeveloping
on Tuesday with heating. Fog and drizzle could be possible for a
few hours tonight/Tuesday morning. With the cloud cover, lows
tonight should remain above 40 degrees. Unfortunately the clouds
will also keep highs on the cool side with temperatures only in
the 50s expected. The coldest temperatures will be felt in our
east, while the west should reach the lower 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Not much has changed in the out periods. Northwest flow aloft is
over the region as the period begins. But then, by Thursday morning,
the pattern is transitioning to west-southwest flow as upper level
energy works across the northern tier states, bringing a couple of
chances for precipitation to the forecast area Wednesday
night/Thursday and again by mid-weekend. Low level waa on Wednesday
will have temperatures warming through the 60s and 70s, which is
near normal for this time of year. Similar temperatures appear to
stick around throughout the extended forecast period. And
warmer/closer to normal conditions has the support of the NAEFS
Ensemble SA table.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

MVFR cigs will likely settle in over KABR/KATY and then persist
into Tuesday morning before improving later in the day. Showers
are expected to gradually end late. VFR conditions are expected
at KPIR/KMBG through Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Parkin



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