Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171807 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
107 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Low clouds have moved into the region this morning and will move
across the cwa through the afternoon. There are some breaks
upstream in northern nd, so there may be sunshine late this
afternoon over our area as this drier air moves in. Otherwise,
breezy/windy northwest winds will continue through the day. High
temperatures have likely already been reached this morning for
some locations as caa has kicked in. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The surface map this morning features an area of low pressure
over southern Manitoba with a cold front crossing the CWA. Winds
will shift to the west, then northwest behind the passage of this
cold front. A secondary cold front in NW ND will slide across the
CWA by the mid morning hours with gusty winds and cloudy skies
expected. With this front coming in sooner than expected, high
temperatures have been lowered by a few degrees, mainly in the
northeast portion of the CWA. Buffer soundings and 1/2km winds
still suggests a possible wind advisory for the NE portion of the
CWA. Since winds are marginal, will forgo an adv. for now.

A surface high pressure building into the region tonight will bring
clearing skies with light and variable winds. The surface high will
push east of the region on Saturday with WAA developing over the
western Dakotas. The WAA, along with upper level ridging will spread
across the eastern Dakotas Saturday night with lows only falling
into the 30s. A surface low pressure system will cross the region on
Sunday. This system will shift the winds to the northwest which will
provide good mixing. With 925 mb temps between the 75th-99th
percentile and 850 mb temps near record territory, highs on Sunday
should warm into the low 60s for snow covered areas, to the 70s

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The period opens with semi-flat (zonal) flow aloft over the cwa as
Pac-NW energy comes barreling eastward across the Dakotas and MN.
Then, the upper level ridge looks to re-assert itself over the
region during the early part of next week before more (and stronger)
upper level energy moves inland off the pacific ocean and sweeps
across the rockies onto the northern/central plains states mid to
late next week.

Precipitation chances abound, although they are not very good
chances, associated with these smaller transient chunks of upper
level short-wave energy. Then better, longer-duration, chances for
widespread measurable precipitation start to show up heading into
Thursday of next week. Because it is expected to be so warm during
the out periods (NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Table), most
of the precipitation chances this go around are expected to be rain


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

MVFR/low VFR clouds will move across the region into the early
evening hours as strong northwest winds at 20 to 25 knots with gusts
to 30 to 35 knots continue. The winds will fall off this evening
along with skies clearing as surface high pressure builds in.




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