Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 090854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S...TO THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK LLJ TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LLJ WILL ONLY KEEP
THE ENVIRONMENT MIXED ENOUGH TO RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW LLM INTO
THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THIS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHORT
WAVE...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES COULD RESULT IN A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. A 30-40 KNOT
LLJ DEVELOPS WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER WHERE MU-CAPE VALUES EXCEED 3000 J/KG. WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KNOTS...ONE WOULD THINK SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND H7 TEMPS
WARM SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. WITH A LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO A LOW END CHC POP FOR NOW ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

INITIAL CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER TEMPS WITH A PATTERN CHANCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS DUE TO TIMING
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. AS SUCH...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND MAINTAINED CHANCE TYPE POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY. DUE TO COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE
TUNE THAT ASPECT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S SAT/SUN...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS PRESENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

STILL EXPECTING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW PIVOTS SWD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL ADVECT AN EARLY FALL LIKE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
/YEESH/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-JULY...SO NOT UNHEARD OF BUT STILL RELATIVELY RARE. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RANGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER NERN SD AND WRN MN. IN
FACT...READINGS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IF ABUNDANT CLOUDS
OR SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHERN CANADA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH...AND EXTEND INTO THE DAKOTAS. OBS
ACROSS THE AREA NOW DETECTING CIGS AROUND 8-9K FEET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SMOKE...AND INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS. AT THE
SFC...THE SMOKE REMAINS THIN AND NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO
VISIBILITY IS OCCURRING IN SD ALTHOUGH KABR AND KATY ARE NOW SHOWING
7SM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOWEVER...AND ADJUST THE TAFS IF IT
LOOKS LIKE FURTHER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY OCCUR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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