Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 192041
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
341 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

One short wave trough was leaving the east this afternoon with a
second stronger short wave trough moving in from the west. The
rainfall from this short wave was widespread on radar with many obs
reporting light rain. The models also agree with good coverage of
rain through the night into early Thursday. If this system is
slower, we may have to increase chances in the far east Thursday
morning. Also, a secondary vort from the northwest along with some
weak instability may result in the development of a few showers
during the day as some of the models were indicating. May have to
add in some chances of light showers for Thursday. Additional
amounts of a tenth to a half inch are possible into early Thursday.
Otherwise, the low clouds will be slow to move out into Thursday
across the region. Believe the east will remain mostly cloudy
through Thursday. Surface high pressure will build into the region
into Thursday evening with highs in the 50s and lower 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Conditions are dry to start off the period Thursday night into the
weekend. Surface high will be over the region Thursday night through
Friday night and have lowered overnight MinT`s in the James valley,
siding more towards ECE guidance. SuperBlend is always too warm in
these scenarios. Warmer air surges into the region on Sunday ahead
of approaching low pressure / frontal boundary. SuperBlend may be
too cool given the synoptic setup with good mixing ahead of a front.
Although, did not stray much from SuperBlend until cloud cover
trends can be better analyzed. It also appears a warm front will be
in the area, with a decent surface temperature gradient over the
region, so didn`t want to get too cute with its position and
resulting temperatures this far out. Looking at cooler temps moving
back in again perhaps at the start of next week. Next chance of
precipitation will be Sunday night and Monday as the cold front /
low pressure moves across the area. Did not stray from SuperBlend
POPs at this point.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

As a couple short wave troughs move across the region, light to
moderate rain will affect all locations from this afternoon into the
evening hours with visibilities to 5 miles at times. Otherwise,
ceilings will become all IFR/MVFR into the afternoon and are
expected to remain through Thursday morning at ABR and ATY. PIR and


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Mohr



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