Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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959
FXUS63 KABR 171133 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Monitoring temperatures early this morning for frost potential
across north central SD. Temps had fallen into the upper 30s a
couple hours ago, but a pesky area of stratus has recently moved
into Corson/Dewey counties and readings have risen into the low 40s.
Although, it appears they will clear out again soon and should have
time to drop back into the mid to upper 30s by sunrise. Will leave
the frost advisory in place through the early morning hours.

Pleasant conditions will be had across the area today as surface
high pressure remains largely in control. Winds will be fairly light
through the morning with mostly sunny skies. As the high begins
shifting east later this afternoon, southerly winds will develop
across the area.

Monday and Tuesday will feature warming temperatures and increasing
dewpoints as southerly winds develop. Winds look particularly gusty
on Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching
cold front. Winds are fairly high at 850mb as well during the day
which will help mix down higher gusts. At this point it doesn`t look
to be wind advisory levels, but did increase winds above SuperBlend.
The other thing to watch for Tuesday is the passage of a strong cold
front and potential strong to severe storms along it. Still quite a
difference in timing between the GFS and EC, but all models do show
instability and shear increasing ahead of the front, setting the
stage for strong to severe storm potential. Day 3 SPC outlook does
have the eastern CWA in a Slight Risk. Low-level shear is looking
decent as well, which could make things interesting...

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

A cold front will continue to sweep through the Plains on Tuesday
night with an upper trough helping to usher in some cooler highs for
Wednesday. The period will be active with another cold front moving
in on Thursday and then a warm front associated with a different low
on Thursday night and Friday. This second system will be responsible
for showers and thunderstorms mainly across the eastern cwa. A deep
longwave trough will transition into the Plains over the weekend. As
it ejects out some shortwave energy, more precip is in the forecast.
However, the models are not in full agreement on any of the precip
potential. The GFS is wetter at the end of the work week while the
ECMWF is wetter over the weekend.

Temperatures will be at their lowest for the period over the weekend
under the deep trough. Highs will top out in the 70s most of the
period, but only in the 60s for most spots on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

There is some patchy IFR/MVFR stratus around northern and eastern
portions of the forecast area this morning. KATY currently has IFR
cigs. MVFR cigs may briefly impact KABR or KMBG over the next
couple of hours. These clouds are expected to dissipate by 15z
and the remainer of the day will see VFR conditions at all sites.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for SDZ003-015.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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