Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 301733 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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