Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 051118 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
518 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS WELL AS
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE COTEAU AS 925 MB
WINDS PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 03Z TO 06Z. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION NONETHELESS. FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD
DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM EVEN MORE AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND
TEMP FORECASTING HERE WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT AND
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL STICK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A RELATIVELY MILD LONG TERM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL SFC/H85 PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MILD AIR ADVECTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WARM.
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NOTCHING UP SUPERBLEND A
COUPLE DEGREES. MEANWHILE ABOUT THE ONLY CHC FOR MEASURABLE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS/GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK







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