Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241136 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
536 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A fast moving front will push across the forecast area this morning.
This front will bring about a 6 hour period of stronger winds to the
area starting around 8 am and continuing through early afternoon. A
wind advisory is in effect. Will keep the advisory in place, but the
strongest winds look to be fairly brief with the frontal passage
then tapering off fairly quickly.

Watching the radar trends and latest model runs, feel any
precipitation should stay in ND. However, will keep some small pops
going mostly across the far northeast portion.

Temperatures today again will be very mild with good mixing along
the front. This front however is not bringing in very cold air, but
high temps should be generally a bit cooler than Thanksgivings
record setting day. Do not expect any records today, but temps will
still be running 15-25 degrees above normal.

Mostly clear skies expected tonight along with wind speeds less than
10 mph as high pressure settles in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The large scale upper level pattern will feature a western CONUS
ridge that gradually slides over the central CONUS by early next
week. This pattern will feature above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. In fact, as Monday rolls around a strong southwesterly
flow/warm air advection pattern sets up and temperatures are again
expected to rise to into the 50s and 60s (some 20 to 25 degrees
above normal for this time of the year). It looks like a bit of a
pattern change Tuesday through the end of the week. Late
Monday/Tuesday, models suggest a large scale upper level trough will
slide across the region, the best forcing however, will remain north
of our area so a dry forecast persists. RELATIVELY cooler air will
filter in behind the front with highs topping out somewhere in the
40s Tuesday (still around 10 degrees above normal for this time of
the year). A closed low pressure system develops over the southwest
CONUS and tracks across the southern plains states Wednesday,
quickly followed by a long wave trough dropping in from the
northwest on Thursday. Still, very little chance of any accumulating
precipitation is forecast for our CWA at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although gusty
winds may be a concern today. West/southwest winds will transition
to a west/northwest direction this morning. Wind speeds will
also increase later this morning, ranging from 20 to 30 kts
sustained with gusts up to 40 kts possible. Winds will begin to
decrease later in the afternoon. An isolated rain shower may also
occur, however due to very low coverage, did not mention at any
individual TAF sites at the time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 4 PM CST
     /3 PM MST/ this afternoon for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-
     033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Serr



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