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000
FXUS63 KABR 170523 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 913 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Breezy winds across the Sisseton Hills and east will quickly
diminish this evening. The main story in the short term will be
the very warm and dry conditions. Warm air advection will drive
H85 temps into the mid teens. This will translate to the surface
and push temps into the 70s across the region and around 80 along
and west of the Missouri River. Relative humidity will dry out as
a result, falling into the upper teens across central SD. Winds,
however, are expected to be light so there will be no major fire
weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

There remains fairly good agreement through the end of the work week
in terms of the upper/low level pattern and resulting
temperature/wind conditions between deterministic members. The main
theme for Wednesday will be an early day cold frontal passage.
Pressure rises of 7mb/6 hours and weak cold advection will allow for
good mixing conditions on northwest winds. Probably not strong
enough for a wind advisory however as BUFKIT mixed winds top out
around 30-40kts at KMBG.

The associated high pressure system sinks south rapidly Wednesday
night, and by Thursday we are in return flow. Light pressure
falls and a 10mb pressure gradient from west to east, along with
850mb winds upwards of 40kts, will mean Thursday will also be
quite breezy, mainly across the James valley and to the east, but
with a southerly component. 850mb temperatures also increase,
topping out around 1 to as high as 2 standard deviations above
climo. Mixing to this level (which is indicated in BUFKIT) yields
highs in the 70s to near 80 Thursday. Friday will be very similar,
although we do see stronger flow at 850mb, which translates to
even stronger southerly winds during the day. We also introduce
some MLCAPE as dewpoints increase into the 50s ahead of the next
front. Looks like frontal passage is overnight into early
Saturday, and best forcing is mostly east of the CWA, so low pops
from blended guidance is appropriate for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Dorn