Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT ON WIND DIRECTION. BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WITH INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE ROCKIES THU NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A 40 KT LLJ WILL SET UP
POSSIBLY KICKING OFF SOME STORMS EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE MINOR ISSUES WITH THE INTENSITY OF A S/W CROSSING THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR POPS. FRIDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRY EVEN WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING TEMPS AT 700 MB OF +12C...WHICH SHOULD CAP OFF CONVECTION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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