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000
FXUS63 KABR 292048
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
348 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Not much going on in the short term with high pressure to the east
and a broad area of low pressure to the west resulting in southerly
flow and some gustiness with about a 12mb gradient across the state.
This gradient will persist across the area, with the core of
strongest winds gradually migrating from west river into an area
between the James and Missouri valleys over the course of the short
term. The warmest temperatures aloft don`t come in to the area till
late in the short term, so a slow steady increasing trend is
depicted in highs/lows through the next 3 days.

Only going to see some mid level moisture come into the western CWA
Friday afternoon but with only around 5 microbars of lift above
500mb and little moisture below 10 to 12kft, anticipate little other
than some virga showers. This band of moisture will also migrate
across the CWA through the course of the short term.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

The long term models agree well early on and then diverge through
the end of the period. The period begins with high pressure over the
region with a large upper level low pressure area moving into the
west coast. This upper low pressure area then drops into the
southwest US and then northeast into the central and northern plains
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this occurs, warm south winds will
prevail across the region Sunday and Monday bringing mostly sunny
skies along with above normal early October temperatures. In fact,
Monday may end up being even warmer than forecast with more 80
degree readings across the region. May have to increase these in
later forecasts. Otherwise, the models all disagree on the evolution
of the southwest US upper level low pressure area and its associated
surface low pressure area for the middle of the week as they move
into the region. The GFS shows the surface low pressure area well
south over southern Nebraska on 12z Wednesday with the Canadian
placing the low pressure area along the Canadian border. The EC
was in between with the low located in northeast South Dakota.
Nevertheless, anyone of the solutions will bring us off and on
good chances of showers/storms for Monday night through Wednesday
night. As the models come into better agreement, the forecast will
become more into focus. The temperatures will cool down into
Wednesday and Thursday as Canadian air moves in on northwest
winds.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Vfr conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Friday. Breezy southeast winds at 15 to 25 knots are expected at PIR
and MBG into the early evening.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr