Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 180542 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1242 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Expect the rain to continue to slowly diminish across eastern SD
into the early morning hours. Adjusted weather and pops and
updated forecast.

.UPDATE
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Surface low is near Sioux City, IA currently, with rain showers
continuing to wrap into the CWA. Although, most everything has been
on the light side. Just recently have we begun to see some more
moderate rain showers move into the southeast CWA. Trend for the
evening and into the overnight hours will be for more of the same -
scattered showers rotating into the eastern CWA. Although, a more
consolidated area of moderate to heavy rainfall moving out of FSD`s
CWA will likely affect the southeast counties later this evening as
the low continues to move north-northeast. Precipitation looks to be
out of the area by Thursday morning, leaving dry conditions for the
remainder of the day. Gusty north to northeast winds will continue
though, with coolish highs right around 60 degrees for most areas.

With some clearing expected overnight across the northwest CWA,
temps look to cool into the mid to upper 30s if the winds can die
down enough. There remains some patchy frost in the forecast for
parts of Corson county, but not widespread enough to warrant
headlines. Also, the steady breezy overnight should prevent much in
the way of damaging frost for those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The extended will see an active pattern take hold of the region. An
upper low will move into the northern plains on Friday. Increased
cloud cover and showers will lead to lower daytime highs. Temps will
top out in the lower 50s on both Fri and Sat. Some areas may be
stuck in the upper 40s.

As the upper low exits on Sunday and skies clear with sfc high
pressure, temps will rise accordingly to more seasonable readings
with highs in the 70s anticipated. This will be short-lived as the
next upper low settles in on Monday through Wednesday, bringing some
more showers and northerly winds. Superblend and some of the other
guidance is likely much too warm for early next week. Lowered highs
a couple of degrees from guidance for now, but could easily see
temps 10 to 15 degrees cooler than consensus values for highs Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

As the surface low pressure area moves off to the northeast tonight,
the light rain will end at ATY. Otherwise, MVFR/low VFR clouds will
also decrease/breakup through the night into Thursday morning with
VFR mostly clear conditions expected for most of the day Thursday.
Breezy northeast winds at 15 to 25 knots are also expected to
continue through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...TDK



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