Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. COULD BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
60S UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND MONDAY AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. EC IS REMAINING CONSISTENT
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
WITH GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL SD. THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME SOLUTION AS THE EC
AND THE NAM LOOKS TO BE FINALLY JUMPING ON BOARD AS THE 06Z RUN COMES
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL SEE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. LOOKING AT MAINLY
SHOWERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ADD SOME THUNDER. SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...DESPITE THE PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

ON TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE CWA WITH GOOD
WEST TO NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE A VERY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RETURN FLOW THEN DEVELOPS...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
AIR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN


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