Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 122347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO MN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE DRYING GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
AND EXPECT THIS TREND INTO THE EVENING. WILL SEE GRADUAL EROSION
OF THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD AS WELL SO WILL SEE LIGHT
WINDS EARLY IN THE EVENING. AXIS ALREADY BEGINS PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SO RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING MOST OF THE NIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE EASTERN CWA GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS.

ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COOL FRONT. LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...MAYBE JUST A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES.

ANOTHER SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
A COUPLE MORE DEGREES AND BOTTOMED OUT THE JAMES VALLEY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
60S. BY THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S...TO THE LOWER
80S. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE SHORT WAVES WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER AND WETTER. BASED ON THE NOMADS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY
TOOL...WHICH SHOWS A 20 TO 30 CHANCE OF SEEING A QUARTER INCH OF
PCPN...WILL RUN WITH POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT GOOD VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST TO REACH KPIR/KMBG BY THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT ACCOMPANYING
THIS COLD FROPA IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST-NORTHWEST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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