Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 092038
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON
THURSDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL
LOCATIONS SEEING READINGS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. RH VALUES ARE
FALLING AS WELL WITH SOME SPOTS REPORTING VALUES IN THE LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME LLM
POOLING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NW NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AND INCREASE BRIEFLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR DURING OR SHORTLY AFTER THE RED FLAG WARNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHC POP.

FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN ON THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20
MPH LIKELY. HOWEVER WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE TIME PEAK
HEATING IS TAKING PLACE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THURSDAY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LLJ
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW INSTEAD OF MENTIONING
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING A RETURN TO THE OLD MID LEVEL PATTERN
WE EXPERIENCED FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER. THAT PATTERN BEING A
POSITIVE PNA ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS WE GET A FEED OF COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA. MEANWHILE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS..SO THE VAST
MAJORITY OF IMPORTANT PCPN WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. A FRONT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS POST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD RELAX AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT OR
BEFORE AS PRESSURE RISES WANE. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT ANY TERMINAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER
     VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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